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#1
07-13-2023, 10:20 AM
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Two at Toga (2023)
I’ll give this a shot again and hope I can make it through the meet. Mythical $2WP bet on each horse. Let’s see if we can turn a profit.
I think there are some interesting horses in the turf sprints and like Steve’s longshot pick of Into Happiness in the 7th (though we’ll see what price she goes off at. I wanted to go elsewhere and focus on the two year olds to start the meet. First bet: Race 2 - #9 Honey Dijon 10/1. Frankly, I don’t love any of the experienced horses in this race and both of them are likely to garner attention. I expect the Pletcher/Prat horse to get bet as well. Honey Dijon is sired by Girvin who does well with first time starters. The workouts for this horse are very solid and I actually like the outside post as she is unlikely to get bumped around early because of it. Tyler can be aggressive in dirt sprints and hits at a 21/55 clip in sprint races. I expect her to go off above 10/1. She is worth a shot, imo. Second bet: Race 9 - #2 Becky’s Joker 15/1. Gary Contessa throws this first time starter right into a graded stakes race in the Schuylerville. Based on the workouts and the fact Contessa is tossing her in here, I’m guessing she’s got some speed and talent. She’s supposedly a big, strong horse and she’s going to be an even bigger number. The favorite has won this race once in the last decade. Granted, often the 2nd or 3rd choice has won but there have been a few longshot surprises. Good luck all. 
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#2
07-13-2023, 12:16 PM
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Alright, why not, count me in again.
Best Bet - Race 9: 11 Sugar Treat - I'm looking to take on Wine on Tap here I actually think Saratoga Secret is scarier if she has learned from the first start and isn't so green here. That said, Casse could've shipped this one back to Woodbine which would've been the logical move after a debut win on the synth that wasn't really the easiest of trips. The horse she beat came back to win and really improved the speed fig...maybe they're just taking a shot but you have to think Casse is awfully confident based on her training that she'll handle the dirt and she also has plenty of pedigree to support that. Best Value - Race 7: 1 Into Happiness - I won't be surprised if I should've flip flopped value/best bet as I'm doubting the 8/1 but DA is usually pretty spot on....either way - like the way she won the last and it seemed like a very shrewd claim and nice spot to bring back. I like the slight cutback and just hope JV can work out a trip from the rail. Good luck to everyone this meet.
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#3
07-13-2023, 01:15 PM
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I whiffed on the first race. Posting preliminary picks for day 2, subject to change based on the weather/scratches.
First bet: Race 9 - #1 My Sweet Affair, 7/2 ML. Gets Irad back and I think the pace sets up for her to run them down and turn the tables on the ones in here who have beaten her. Second bet: Race 3 - #2 Modern Love, 15/1 ML. This horse broke her maiden down in Tampa after the race got taken off the turf. She came back on dirt and now is hoping to make her turf debut. That’s an angle I often like to incorporate (first turf race after getting taken off the turf) for some of my longshot bets. She is the 1/2 sister to Competitionofideas, multiple graded stakes placed turf router who also won the American Oaks. I’m not sure the pace sets up for her well…but I do think she’ll like the surface switch. Respect to Royalty Interest here but I’m going to take a shot. Edit - Day 1 results Wagered: $8.00 Return: $57.20 Last edited by moses : 07-13-2023 at 05:15 PM.
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#5
07-13-2023, 04:28 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
07-13-2023, 04:34 PM
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I almost poked fun at Moses picking a Contessa FTS in a graded stake - jokes on me just knocked me out of pick-4 and pick-5 for multiple dollars.... Great pick Moses.
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#7
07-13-2023, 04:35 PM
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#8
07-13-2023, 04:56 PM
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I did not bet nearly enough on her but I won’t complain either. It was a nice hit.
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#9
07-14-2023, 11:27 AM
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Into Happiness got the exact trip I expected and won off as planned...Sugar Treat should've been sent to Woodbine for the stakes up there after all.
A fun looking Friday card seems mostly ruined but will take a stab.... Bet: $8.00 Returned: $22.90 Best Bet Race 9: #3 Anna's Arabesque - Perhaps it's all L Street Lady in here but I'm hoping that maybe Unified Alliance and even Wildhawk take enough money to make Anna appealing in here. I think the fact that her Beyer regressed so much despite a win in the last at Ellis will turn most off today on the dirt but she won that quite easily...sure it was an off the turf and wasn't facing much but I don't find any of the rivals particularly imposing, she's a Munnings out of a Maclean's Music mare who ran basically the same figs turf + dirt and it's really more of a dirt leaning female side to me. Best Value Race 5: #7 Wiskey and Wine - Taking a total stab here on a runner that hasn't picked up his feet yet. Just thinking the first couple starts were too bad to be true and is another that is arguably bred more for dirt than turf/sports some decent works. GL
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#10
07-14-2023, 11:47 AM
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#11
07-14-2023, 03:59 PM
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After Day 2.
$16.00 wagered. $60.40 returned. Day 3. First bet: Race 7 - #3 Bowl of Cherries, 6/1 ML. I think the pace will heat up here and allow Irad to work out a trip. Hoping the dirt form converts to the grass. Second bet: Race 9 - #4 Ice Chocolat, 20/1 ML. I thought he did not look comfortable early on in the Jaipur but did put in a nice effort in the stretch. I think he’ll like the mile distance here and gotta love the addition of Prat. This is a really tough field and he’s probably not good enough. But. At 20/1, I’ve made worse bets.
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#12
07-15-2023, 11:48 AM
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Wine and Whiskey broke poorly, rushed up and had nothing late. Anna's Arabesque was OK and I thought was needlessly pulled off the pace but was probably second best anyway.
Bet: $16.00 Returned: $26.50 Saturday 7/15: Best Bet - Race 11: #1 Monet Never - Been waiting for this one to return off the last start. He's got good tactical speed and I thought had very subtle but less than ideal trips in his first two at Gulfstream. He again had a bit of a trip in the last but I'm moreso drawing a line through that event as something clearly went wrong. Blinkers come off today and hopefully that allows him to settle a bit better and finally finish a race off. Best Value - Race 6: #11 Waterville - Maybe seeing something that isn't there but I wonder if we can get her to show some real improvement today. Her races last year were fine but not exactly anything to write home about however I thought the best of them came on the Toga Inner and this time she's coming in with a race inbetween...a race that will likely have most jumping off but I'd contend was a subtle but horrible trip where nothing went right for her. She starts out chasing a blistering pace three wide...Manny eventually eases off and she doesn't lose a ton of ground but after being used a bit early she now finds herself near the back of the pack, then the 8 drops anchor early right in front of her without much room and Manny decides to pull the trigger early which also necessitates a wide move around the turn. It's quite possible she's just not very fast, but I think a series of minor things conspired against her last out and I want to give this one a final shot at what should be a square price. Good luck.
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#13
07-15-2023, 05:30 PM
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$24.00 wagered $66.30 returned Tomorrow looks like it will be very wet at Saratoga. Preliminary picks below: First bet: Race 9 - #11 Joey Freshwater (MTO), 9/2. Second bet: Race 8 - #2 Nakatomi, 5/2.
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#14
07-15-2023, 11:33 PM
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#15
07-16-2023, 11:36 AM
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First bet is now Race 5 where I want to take a stab with Antonio of Venice now out. I think you can make a case for a lot of these but I like #7 Ice the Kicker. Melanie Giddings has placed a few of these maiden horses well. The pedigree suggests this one will like a wet track AND he’s got a nice workout on a sloppy track AND I like Lezcano to factor in in a race like this. Second bet is now Race 9. I want to give #5 Two of a Kind a shot here. He’ll be a price and going to trust Leparoux to figure out when to make the move into what looks like it will be an absolutely scorching pace (though, sometimes these turf sprinters just never stop…so we’ll see if he can get it done.) if this gets taken off the turf, give me Joey Freshwater though.
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#16
07-16-2023, 12:49 PM
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Waterville improved as hoped but was no match for the other from the same barn...Prat, as dahoss mentioned, worked some real magic for me in the last with Monet Never. Gold Sweep cost me a fortune in the multis yesterday...
Wagered: $24.00 Returned: $54.60 Best Bet - Race 7: #1 Prove Worthy 9/2 - Maybe a fools errand betting on a slow horse for Irad, Pletcher and Repole but I'm going to bite on this one. I just think this one wants every bit of the distance, love the rail draw and trust Irad to get into a good rhythm and time out his move. The race two back looks much more competitive against several of these than the last but this horse could not have been a worse fit for the way Ellis is playing and the race played out just like that. I'm drawing a line through that one and figure there is still some upside here in a field that I'm not particularly scared of anyone else. Best Value - Race 9: #4 Dr. Oseran 8/1 - If things don't work out today I won't have to look much further than falling in love with slow horses...but in digging through this field I ultimately just decided I wanted to take a shot with a new face as I can't separate any of the more logical types. I think 5F turf figs at Gulfstream are iffy at best and at least he has that fig three back...but moreso I'm just hoping that this one will improve moving back north as I thought the debut at Belmont last summer was pretty OK and he clearly had no clue what he was doing, wandering about late. The last race he failed to break and while that would be a big concern here today at least they found out that he has some versatility...he made a wide move off the turn and was really motoring but just never really found enough space at any point in the stretch. Doesn't hurt that Prat takes the mount. Good luck everybody.
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#17
07-16-2023, 02:11 PM
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With the Quick Call coming off the turf - it appears Dr. Oseran hasn't scatched, though I don't have a clue why not...so I will switch my pick:
9-#9 Uncashed - I have no idea what to expect for a price and the presence of Irad certainly won't help but there's actually a lot of good dirt form left in this race along with two MTO's so on a card that I didn't have a lot of strong opinions I'll take a shorter price that I think is very likely to win. I just think Uncashed is faster than these and I have to think Larry Rivelli figured he'd take a shot on turf with the ultimate hope it could come off and get a shot in a field like this.
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#18
07-16-2023, 05:02 PM
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$32.00 wagered $70.10 returned
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#19
07-17-2023, 03:57 PM
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Not sure how much I’ll be on the next few days so going to post now. Going for gold here.
Wednesday. First bet: Race 7 - #6 Golden Rocket, 5/1. I’m very much against the morning line favorites in this race. And while that may prove to be foolish, I prefer to go with the class in this race, who I expect to be a nice price just based on the connections of Farro/Gomez. I’m even intrigued by ex-Clement trainee Classic Colors who I really love a couple years ago but who toiled away in dirt races in Charles Town for the first half of this year. Good to see her back on turf and she’s under Russell now with Franco aboard (3-3 ITM for Franco/Russell) so wouldn’t be shocked to see her win this either. Second bet: Race 3 - #4 Golden Dagger, 8/1. This horse had a bad start in her debut, was wide throughout, and was just the best horse in that race. The runner up moved up to MSW where she ran 2nd in her next outing and broke her maiden in her 3rd race. I’m not sure why she was sent to the bench after her maiden win but Morey hits at 23% 90+ days away. Morey not a great 1st time turfer but dam has produced 4 turf winners to date. Ability to come from off the pace could be key here as there are several in here that seem to want the front.
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#20
07-19-2023, 11:47 AM
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Wagered: $32.00
Returned: $61.90 Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Gun Boat 9/2 - I liked the effort at Belmont last out off a long layoff. Clearly has had some issues but I've always thought this one had upside and I like to see pointing here off what I have to assume was a prep. She set the pace in a race where they came over the top on the outside late and I think she's very likely to turn the tables on likely favored Anna Karenine today. Best Value: Race 7 #1 Classic Colors 8/1 - Mainly a connections play but I also just think this one clearly belongs on turf. Somewhat of a hunch but just guessing that Dubb/Russell aren't entering here if they don't think they had a legit chance. Not in love with the rail draw the way the turf has been playing so far but that could've easily changed over the past few days. Hopefully Manny can save some ground and make a big late run.
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