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#1
11-25-2009, 07:05 AM
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11/25: Churchill ($75k C/O)
More or less as anticipated, the Churchill carryover wasn't worth trying Tuesday as the sequence went un-hit again... The winners of the first 5 ranged from obvious to hardly impossible with totes of $11.00, $12.80, $6.80, $16.40 and $4.60. Overlaid Yore ($54) busted up the plays of many in the nightcap, and even that Scooter Dickey entry number, whom I included as 'High 5 Play' 5th choice, wasn't completely outlandish. I wasted $72 on an action bet and was out after the first leg, the silly $30k Maiden Claiming race that went to Ralph Nicks' 9-2 Brittany Goes West. Did manage to catch an overlay exotic in the 6th with Countus in Mon from Dave Kassen keying a $230 tri. That helped defray the day's losses. Hope you did OK and are willing to try again today with the sextet just as tricky!
ATR starts to preview the Holiday Stakes action today on SiriusXM... We're off Thanksgiving Day, but back Friday 4-7pm EST with the Top Flight from Aqueduct and the Clark Day action from Churchill as well as more capping of the big weekend! CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 First to Know 9-2 5th Best Value: #4 Atomic Force 5-1 3rd Next Best: #8 Polished 3-1 WON Super Add: #2 Hardknockinbillie 10-1 4th 6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Tally Up 5-2 5th Best Value: #8 Chaffee John 20-1 9th Next Best: #4 Shilah 6-1 WON Super Add: #3 Native Tongue 10-1 7th 7th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) As discussed last night on ATR, interesting N2L ALW with a couple of big fig dirt winners (#3 Jerry Barry Jack and #10 Harmony Landing) trying the lawn. Both are 10-1 with the #3 obviously drawn more ideally. Tough call but worth keying at least the insider at the number.. Best Value: #3 Jerry Barry Jack 10-1 7th Most Likely: #8 Justy 6-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Whitely 7-2 WON Super Add: #10 Harmony Landing 10-1 6th 8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 St. Rose 3-1 3rd Best Value: #5 Southern Tenacity 5-1 7th Next Best: #2 Rising Barometer 5-2 WON Super Add: #8 Runway Star 12-1 6th 9th: OC/N3X, F*M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super) Best Value: #5 SCR Most Likely: #1 Brezing Rain 3-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Sheltered 5-1 WON Super Add: #7 Secret Kin 5-1 5th 10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5) Most Likely: #9 Eris 5-1 3rd Best Value: #8 Cherokee Star 6-1 7th Next Best: #3 Ride On Josephine 5-2 WON Exotics Use: #2 Cutting Edge 8-1 10th High 5 Play: #1 Outside 10-1 4th <$150 P6 Play: 5: 4-6 6: 1 7: 3-4-6-8-9-10 8: 5-9 9: 1-4-7 10: 9 2x1x6x2x3x1 = 72 x $144 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 3-4-6-8-9-10 8: 5-9 9: 1-4-7 10: 2-3-8-9 6x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-25-2009 at 04:26 PM. 
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#2
11-25-2009, 11:12 AM
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RACE 5 - PICK SIX BEGINS / SIX-DAY CARRYOVER $75,749
NO CHANGES RACE 6 Jockey Overweight #6 Monster Drive - +4 SCRATCH AE #13 Protectorofallevil SCRATCH AE #14 Quite Acceptable SCRATCH AE #15 Royal Field RACE 7 - LATE PICK 4 BEGINS (50-CENT MINIMUM WAGER) SCRATCH #5 Rockin Rod SCRATCH #7 Broganville AE #1A Avenstoke will run RACE 8 SCRATCH #1A All in my Way (part of entry, #1 Nurse Donna will run) SCRATCH #4 Safe RACE 9 SCRATCH #5 Ten Lil Indians RACE 10 - SUPER HI-5/ NO CARRYOVER NO CHANGES
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
11-25-2009, 03:56 PM
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$170k carryover with the 1,4,7,10. Everyone else pays out.
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#4
11-25-2009, 04:04 PM
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Quote:
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#5
11-25-2009, 04:47 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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