7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping - Page 5

Storm Cadet · #81 07-11-2007, 04:17 PM

SWLY opens at 2/5...now 1/2???? Kasept pounding the windows!!!!!

BillW · #82 07-11-2007, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

SWLY opens at 2/5...now 1/2???? Kasept pounding the windows!!!!!

There was over $5K on her at the second tick

.

10 pnt move up · #83 07-11-2007, 04:36 PM

what an overlay on the 6, and the 3 though the horse ran 4th.

Storm Cadet · #84 07-11-2007, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

Agree with CJ and you. As a customer of CJ's figs for years, I have tried to adapt his using the combined philosophies of TGRAPH and Cary Fotias of "Blinkers Off".

Her's my take on the Race with projected CJ performance figs:

2 P 75 Pairs up the previous poly fig.

3 P 84 First out in '07 runs a poly 78, should improve 2nd off 5 week freshner

1 E 78 Runs a consistant high 70's fig. Not good enough in this race.

4 EP 76 Ran a triple top on 5/19, bounced back to a 64. Never has run a route. Toss

1A E 81 Ran a New Pace Top last out on turf and paired up perf fig last out. Running the route last out helps with conditioning. Only neg is there is so much speed, E front runners will get cooked with 2 inside E horses and SWLY on her outside gunning for lead.

5 PS 73 Runs consistant low 70 poly numbers TOSS.

6 EP 82 Ran a triple top last out, normally a toss, but young horse with proper time off, I think she'll pair up that last out poly 82 and might keep upward improvement.

7 PS X TOSS

8 EP 80 Ran 4 straight improve PF figs. Small incremental improvements tell me improvement still possible to new top. Likes poly and route fitness a plus.

9. E 80 Has shown she needs to be at the lead or within a length be ITM. But there's a ton of E and EP racers here who might cook the speed horses down and set it up for closers. Outside draw doesn't help, but her 80 and nice improvement line is enough to keep in exotics. Will be rooting for her as always.

1. #3 4th place
2. #6 WON Pays $19.40
3. #1ASCR
4. #9/8 9 PLACE/8 SHOW

6-9 Ex pays 74.40
Tri Pays $218.40
Super pays $761.50 CJ Figs!

Nice payday for DT Stables and me today! Congrats all

Danzig · #85 07-11-2007, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

Nice payday for DT Stables and me today! Congrats all

way to go!

cmorioles · #86 07-11-2007, 05:57 PM

The 6f fraction was on the quick side for that final time at first glance. I'll do the figures in the next day or so and post here if anyone is interested.

pointman · #87 07-11-2007, 06:00 PM

I, for one, am very interested. Also interested in learning a more about your system.

otisotisotis · #88 07-11-2007, 06:12 PM

sucks that she couldn't pull out the win (it's coming i'm sure!), but it sure made some nice $ for me on the ex, tri, super.
still, would have rather cashed the win ticket on her.

Danzig · #89 07-11-2007, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The 6f fraction was on the quick side for that final time at first glance. I'll do the figures in the next day or so and post here if anyone is interested.

please do so! i'm sure many of us are interested.

sumwon back on track after a hiccup in her training. life is good.

Danzig · #90 07-11-2007, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by otisotisotis

sucks that she couldn't pull out the win (it's coming i'm sure!), but it sure made some nice $ for me on the ex, tri, super.
still, would have rather cashed the win ticket on her.

congrats! a win would have been very nice, altho not as lucrative for anyone who had the winner....

hate your avatar by the way!! lol

otisotisotis · #91 07-11-2007, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

congrats! a win would have been very nice, altho not as lucrative for anyone who had the winner....

hate your avatar by the way!! lol

oh come on now..........

Danzig · #92 07-11-2007, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by otisotisotis

oh come on now..........

i'm not a fan...lol no biggie, i've seen worse!

cmorioles · #93 07-12-2007, 06:01 PM

I came up with a race pace figure of 87, and a speed figure of 84. She will have a pace number of 85, speed figure of 83, which coincedentally is pretty much the same exact race she ran last time on dirt.

Sightseek · #94 07-12-2007, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I came up with a race pace figure of 87, and a speed figure of 84. She will have a pace number of 85, speed figure of 83, which coincedentally is pretty much the same exact race she ran last time on dirt.

Thanks for letting us all know.

AeWingnut · #95 07-12-2007, 07:13 PM

80 something beats the hell out of 50 something.

I'm starting to feel like a jinx

pointman · #96 07-12-2007, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I came up with a race pace figure of 87, and a speed figure of 84. She will have a pace number of 85, speed figure of 83, which coincedentally is pretty much the same exact race she ran last time on dirt.

Thanks, CJ. Those are pretty encouraging numbers considering the fact that she seemed to need a race and the layoff. No reason to believe that she can't go up in the next few starts.