7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

did you miss the last race?

I just am looking at the pp cj provided, but I do remember hearing the call on the radio a bunch and it sounded like she dug in gamely after being passed?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I just am looking at the pp cj provided, but I do remember hearing the call on the radio a bunch and it sounded like she dug in gamely after being passed?

she sat 2 lengths behind the leader and passed her at the quarter pole. Relaxed nicely off the pace

[10 pnt move up]

Wasnt she also sick or something to complicate matters?

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I would say fair odds are around 6/1, not sure what she will be.

Look, she is not winning hooked 3 or 4 wide on a fast pace, thats the fast track to an up the track finish. Can she take back and save some ground as which may be needed in this field, I dont think so, but if she wins I think she will need to do so.

Two posts and you have taken this one event and tried to use a large quantity to make your point.

Each race has a dynamic, I am talking about this race only after looking at the pp's. In general a horse with a E/P or P running style was stuck outside I would say it would be tough but not impossible, the horse in question has never shown a style like that.

If I can get 6-1, there will certainly be a trip to the ATM in my future.

We will all find out on Wed...

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

If I can get 6-1, there will certainly be a trip to the ATM in my future.

We will all find out on Wed...

I'm mostly going to be playing a few small bets throughout the day, and am just going to enjoy getting to be there to share the day with the owners -- but oh my, if the price is right, with the way those she's been running against have been coming back, I'll see you in line

[AeWingnut]

Sumwon always finds a future Stakes horse to run against regardless of purse or condition. She is the class and speed of this race. However, there are question marks. I would bet that she will be the favorite when the odds are first posted then drift up to 2-1 or if we are lucky 5/2.
Anyone that leaves her out of the exacta is taking a huge risk.

I believe she will try her best - especially if the weather cooperates.

[jwkniska]

weather will cooperate. should be partly cloudy and alot cooler and less humid. Storms now that will end tomorrow, then clearing out and cooling off.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Sumwon always finds a future Stakes horse to run against regardless of purse or condition. She is the class and speed of this race. However, there are question marks. I would bet that she will be the favorite when the odds are first posted then drift up to 2-1 or if we are lucky 5/2.
Anyone that leaves her out of the exacta is taking a huge risk.

I believe she will try her best - especially if the weather cooperates.

I also see Sumwon settling in the second flight (if Classic Tiara stays in, Sumwon might not have a choice), and making her move when Gazzella moves. If there's anyone she's willing to settle in that way for, she's likely willing to do it for Willie. If it's her and Gazzella halfway down the stretch, Sumwon outfinishes Gazzella if Sumwon's on her game. And the fact that Chuck thinks that she got something out of her last work reassures me on that front, despite the lay-off.

As far as post-time odds, I agree with Wingnut. I think bettors eyeballing the pps will be looking for a little value as an alternate to the lukewarm ml favorite -- Sumwon's pps certainly stand out for that purpose -- and they then pound her down to 5-2.

Might do some saver exotics, but for me, for this race, it will be mainly exotics with SWLY on top and a hefty win bet.

[Scav]

First, I would like to say thank you to all involved for arguing constructively, well done by all. 2ndly, Arljim is NUTS to think you are getting 4/1 on this horse, 5/2 off odds my friend, probably close to being favored. People will be playing Makers and Pletchers horse but I think Sumwon is 2nd favored, especially when people see who she has been running against. I GUARANTEE Liane Davis makes a point of it. She is sharp like that. Maybe I will convince her not to say a word about Sumwon. 3rdly. She will not be on the lead, I, with 100% certainity will say that she will be sitting 3rd or 4th right off the pace and get first run. She did the same exact thing with an inside post last time, and now she is going to great position and the opportunity for first run.

Now, this will all change if they get nuts up front and everyone wants the lead, where she is hung 5w. The best situation is that there is the common three horse speed duel up front where she is sitting two lengths back and gets first run, which is possible. Ideally, and this might be a long shot, but I have seen Earlie gun horses before that have no business on the lead, because the favorite is sitting outside of him, wants to hang them wide, it would be GREAT if he guns his horse in this race and hang Gazella 3w the whole time.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Sumwon always finds a future Stakes horse to run against regardless of purse or condition. She is the class and speed of this race. However, there are question marks. I would bet that she will be the favorite when the odds are first posted then drift up to 2-1 or if we are lucky 5/2.
Anyone that leaves her out of the exacta is taking a huge risk.

I believe she will try her best - especially if the weather cooperates.

She is not the speed in this race at all, what are you guys missing from her last race. Chuck has TAUGHT THIS HORSE TO RATE. She is a midflight horse now.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Scav

She is not the speed in this race at all, what are you guys missing from her last race. Chuck has TAUGHT THIS HORSE TO RATE. She is a midflight horse now.

ok, I know she won't have the lead but she is still faster than everyone else in the race

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

First, I would like to say thank you to all involved for arguing constructively, well done by all. 2ndly, Arljim is NUTS to think you are getting 4/1 on this horse, 5/2 off odds my friend, probably close to being favored. People will be playing Makers and Pletchers horse but I think Sumwon is 2nd favored, especially when people see who she has been running against. I GUARANTEE Liane Davis makes a point of it. She is sharp like that. Maybe I will convince her not to say a word about Sumwon. 3rdly. She will not be on the lead, I, with 100% certainity will say that she will be sitting 3rd or 4th right off the pace and get first run. She did the same exact thing with an inside post last time, and now she is going to great position and the opportunity for first run.

Now, this will all change if they get nuts up front and everyone wants the lead, where she is hung 5w. The best situation is that there is the common three horse speed duel up front where she is sitting two lengths back and gets first run, which is possible. Ideally, and this might be a long shot, but I have seen Earlie gun horses before that have no business on the lead, because the favorite is sitting outside of him, wants to hang them wide, it would be GREAT if he guns his horse in this race and hang Gazella 3w the whole time.

first you thank everyone for arguing constructively, then in the next breath you call me nuts?

read my post, I said she'll be 3 or 4 to 1. You say she'll be 5/2. So 2.5 to one is sane, but 3/1 is nutty?

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Might do some saver exotics, but for me, for this race, it will be mainly exotics with SWLY on top and a hefty win bet.

There are a few unknowns in this race. I hesitate to put my retirement on her. Npw if she were to go off at her M/L I would put my paycheck on her. The risk vs reward would be enough then.

Willie should know a thing or two about Queen of the Ridge...He used to ride her so maybe he knows what she will do. I would hope that Gazella presses that one while Willie walks on by at the top of the stretch and pulls away by oh...3 at the 1/16th pole.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I just am looking at the pp cj provided, but I do remember hearing the call on the radio a bunch and it sounded like she dug in gamely after being passed?

Point, go to racereplays and watch her last two races, they are very interesting. In the last, she proves she's a race horse (very gutsy, you really should see this), in the one previous you can see Willie rate her, and she responds very kindly, down the back stretch.

I love my TG's, but watching the races tells you what you really need to know, sometimes.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

There are a few unknowns in this race. I hesitate to put my retirement on her. Npw if she were to go off at her M/L I would put my paycheck on her. The risk vs reward would be enough then.

Willie should know a thing or two about Queen of the Ridge...He used to ride her so maybe he knows what she will do. I would hope that Gazella presses that one while Willie walks on by at the top of the stretch and pulls away by oh...3 at the 1/16th pole.

Agree that there are a few unknowns. And for SWLY's past races, I've bet more conservatively, style-wise, though I'll be betting about the same here as in the past in terms of total amount. Also, I'm certainly not one to play hunches, but looking at these pps, I can just see this race unfolding with a win. It's not blind optimism, it's recognizing that Chuck has put our girl in the best position so far, imo, for that win.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

She is not the speed in this race at all, what are you guys missing from her last race. Chuck has TAUGHT THIS HORSE TO RATE. She is a midflight horse now.

LOL, you were the one swearing up and down last time that she would go to the front, when I told you the 6 would get the lead.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Scherer entry - both turf to dirt (poly) angle, either capable, using underneath in tri's & super's.
Powder River - along time between drinks for this one, steps back up in class, doesn't look a factor here...not using.
Miss Peachtree - even race last time out and may have needed it, no early foot...but could land a piece, using in all exotics.
Lady Eloquence - stretches out for the first time, two efforts here were good, could be the longshot to using underneath in tri's & super's.
Pure Classy - this one scares me the most because of connections, could see her running late if the pace is quick, can see her 2nd or 3rd choice...include in all.
Green Door - showed speed in maiden breaker going a route, don't think she'll improve much more off that effort...super's only.
Bid on Dancer - the "rank outsider", "not in this lifetime".
Gazzella - the likely favorite, the horse to beat...but with price - would try to beat her even if Sumwon wasn't in the race.
Sumwonlovesyou - speaks for herself...both on and off the track!

The plays -
Sumwonlovesyou #9 - "heavy" on the win end.
Gazzella #8 / Pure Classy #5 / Miss Peachtree #3 - all in the "2" hole
Scherer entry #1 (either half) / Lady Eloquence #4 - rounding out top #3
Green Door #6 - in super's only

9/8/5 - 9/8/5/3- 9/8/5/3/1/4/ - 9/8/5/3/1/4/6

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

first you thank everyone for arguing constructively, then in the next breath you call me nuts?

read my post, I said she'll be 3 or 4 to 1. You say she'll be 5/2. So 2.5 to one is sane, but 3/1 is nutty?

you are nuts...but that isn't attacking you like old school happenings.

She will open up at 1/2 and drift up to 2/1.

Don't get your panties in a bunch my friend, I'll slap you silly with my arlington program on wednesday

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

LOL, you were the one swearing up and down last time that she would go to the front, when I told you the 6 would get the lead.

enough of you and your ridiculous memory. Please don't tell me you are keeping a notebook of every poster's opinions and trends

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

The plays -
Sumwonlovesyou #9 - "heavy" on the win end.
Gazzella #8 / Pure Classy #5 / Miss Peachtree #3 - all in the "2" hole
Scherer entry #1 (either half) / Lady Eloquence #4 - rounding out top #3
Green Door #6 - in super's only

9/8/5 - 9/8/5/3- 9/8/5/3/1/4/ - 9/8/5/3/1/4/6

win 9
ex 9 w/ 3,8
tri 9 w/ 3,8 w/ 1A(only),2,3,7,8
saver ex: 3,8 w/ 9

Not afraid of the 5, think she will be too far out of touch with the early pace and not be able to make it up, even with her late run.