7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[cmorioles]

I guess that all depends on your definition of fair. It certainly doesn't play like dirt.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I guess that all depends on your definition of fair. It certainly doesn't play like dirt.

Agree, but dirt played to speed/rail holding, these races are finally 'fair' meaning good, well trained horses are winning.

I am also curious to see how she runs without her feet getting a taste of it, pre-race. At Hollywood, you can't work at SA and run at Hollywood, distinct disadvantage. Baffert is bringing all his horses over for one work pre-race now

[cmorioles]

Here are my figures for the race. I posted in a version with running lines that most will be familiar with here.


Arlington Park, R8, July 11


For a brief explanation of the figures, see this link.

Thanks for the kind words Steve. At this time, I cap the number of users and don't have openings, so I try not to get into specifics much. I will certainly be rooting for you guys. The numbers themselves show what a great job Chuck has done already! Again, it is the surface that is the tough part of the equation.

All that, and I loath chalk!

[Riot]

Thanks for the PaceFigs - I like them.

What I want to know is: has Sumwon broken away from her hotwalkers this week?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Here are my figures for the race. I posted in a version with running lines that most will be familiar with here.


Arlington Park, R8, July 11


For a brief explanation of the figures, see this link.

Thanks for the kind words Steve. At this time, I cap the number of users and don't have openings, so I try not to get into specifics much. I will certainly be rooting for you guys. The numbers themselves show what a great job Chuck has done already! Again, it is the surface that is the tough part of the equation.

All that, and I loath chalk!

Just a quick scan of your figures it looks to me like Ms Peachtree is a great bet in here.

The pace is going to be fast, 24 quiren points by 4 runners! and ms peachtree off a long layoff made a winning bid before tiring, figures to be tighter for this one. She showed in that kee lose by a head she can handle a fast pace, something she will see today.

Honestly I dont see how the outside horse can win this, she takes back she is hooked wide, she guns she will be used early and there is a couple legit closers in the race.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Just a quick scan of your figures it looks to me like Ms Peachtree is a great bet in here.

The pace is going to be fast, 24 quiren points by 4 runners! and ms peachtree off a long layoff made a winning bid before tiring, figures to be tighter for this one. She showed in that kee lose by a head she can handle a fast pace, something she will see today.

Honestly I dont see how the outside horse can win this, she takes back she is hooked wide, she guns she will be used early and there is a couple legit closers in the race.

That "argument" could be made about any horse breaking from the 9-hole in any race at any track, and I'm pretty sure there have been at least a few 9-hole winners throughout the history of horse racing.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

That "argument" could be made about any horse breaking from the 9-hole in any race at any track, and I'm pretty sure there have been at least a few 9-hole winners throughout the history of horse racing.

thats a silly post, but given your statement I probably have made the exact argument in the past when

1. there is alot of speed signed up on a flat turn mile
2. an outside horse has several speed horses inside of them
3. is not faster then the other speed to clear and run them off their feet

You really furthered the handicapping discussion by blatantly making the 9-hole statement without offering any supporting handicapping logic why I am wrong.

She does have the second best figure in the race so its not impossible for her to win if some other riders take back and she breaks right on top thus elimating some of the speed, I just think at low odds its a very risky proposition.

[Cannon Shell]

Funny how things change...3 months ago everybody thought we were hopelessly overmatched and now everyone says we are a possibly overbet favorite. I'd rather be the latter.

[Cannon Shell]

By the way, going a mile out of a chute makes the outside post a lesser factor being that there is 1/2 mile to get position

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

By the way, going a mile out of a chute makes the outside post a lesser factor being that there is 1/2 mile to get position

agree with that but only if you are the clear front running speed or a multi dimensional horse who can press the pace from a few lengths back, not sure this horse can, at least she never has before.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

thats a silly post, but given your statement I probably have made the exact argument in the past when

1. there is alot of speed signed up on a flat turn mile
2. an outside horse has several speed horses inside of them
3. is not faster then the other speed to clear and run them off their feet

You really furthered the handicapping discussion by blatantly making the 9-hole statement without offering any supporting handicapping logic why I am wrong.

She does have the second best figure in the race so its not impossible for her to win if some other riders take back and she breaks right on top thus elimating some of the speed, I just think at low odds its a very risky proposition.

So basically any horse that breaks from the 9-hole either has to be the speed of the speed or a dead closer to be a contender? Do I really have to provide "supporting handicapping logic" why that's wrong? She can stalk in the second flight and then move three-four wide on the turn and still win, just like any good, tactically sound horse can. And I love how you're convinced that she's going to be such low odds when she's 4-1 on the ML and Pletcher's horse is certain to take a lot of money.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Funny how things change...3 months ago everybody thought we were hopelessly overmatched and now everyone says we are a possibly overbet favorite. I'd rather be the latter.

well, 3 months ago you were

and you know you like to bet too

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

So basically any horse that breaks from the 9-hole either has to be the speed of the speed or a dead closer to be a contender? Do I really have to provide "supporting handicapping logic" why that's wrong? She can stalk in the second flight and then move three-four wide on the turn and still win, just like any good, tactically sound horse can. And I love how you're convinced that she's going to be such low odds when she's 4-1 on the ML and Pletcher's horse is certain to take a lot of money.

I would say fair odds are around 6/1, not sure what she will be.

Look, she is not winning hooked 3 or 4 wide on a fast pace, thats the fast track to an up the track finish. Can she take back and save some ground as which may be needed in this field, I dont think so, but if she wins I think she will need to do so.

Two posts and you have taken this one event and tried to use a large quantity to make your point.

Each race has a dynamic, I am talking about this race only after looking at the pp's. In general a horse with a E/P or P running style was stuck outside I would say it would be tough but not impossible, the horse in question has never shown a style like that.

[ArlJim78]

First of all, she is not going to be chalk imo. The Douglas/Pletcher horse I'm sure will be a solid favorite. my guess is Sumwon is 3 or 4 to 1 by post time.

Second, I can easily see her getting a nice trip from that post settling in third or fourth, perhaps 2-3 lengths off the lead. With the long run up the backside there will be plenty of time to get into a decent position for the turn, meaning not 3-4 wide. I definitely don't subscribe to the gun it or take back idea. With her natural speed in 2-3 furlongs she will have easily cleared all but a few horses, without gunning.

she can start to move on the leaders on the turn and I think with the late power she showed last race she has a decent shot at taking it. I also like where she is in the form cycle, (three improving starts, followed by a short break and a nice work time before last), meaning perhaps she moves forward again.

Objectively speaking, I do always prefer to see recent poly form before wagering on a horse. Some of the local horses have a few races on the surface and that can be an advantage.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I would say fair odds are around 6/1, not sure what she will be.

Look, she is not winning hooked 3 or 4 wide on a fast pace, thats the fast track to an up the track finish. Can she take back and save some ground as which may be needed in this field, I dont think so, but if she wins I think she will need to do so.

Two posts and you have taken this one event and tried to use a large quantity to make your point.

Each race has a dynamic, I am talking about this race only. If a horse with a E/P or P running style was stuck outside I would say it would be tough but not impossible, the horse in question has never shown a style like that.

I think you're nuts for putting the fair value at 6/1.

Who said anything about getting hooked 3-4 wide on a hot pace? I said she can travel with the second flight, then make a 3-4 wide move on the turn and win. Good horses do it all the time. And this isn't a turf race where you can hug the rail on the turn and then swing out for the stretch drive. She's going to have to make her move somewhere on the turn, so I don't know where you want her to "take back and save some ground."

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

First of all, she is not going to be chalk imo. The Douglas/Pletcher horse I'm sure will be a solid favorite. my guess is Sumwon is 3 or 4 to 1 by post time.

Second, I can easily see her getting a nice trip from that post settling in third or fourth, perhaps 2-3 lengths off the lead. With the long run up the backside there will be plenty of time to get into a decent position for the turn, meaning not 3-4 wide. I definitely don't subscribe to the gun it or take back idea. With her natural speed in 2-3 furlongs she will have easily cleared all but a few horses, without gunning.

she can start to move on the leaders on the turn and I think with the late power she showed last race she has a decent shot at taking it. I also like where she is in the form cycle, (three improving starts, followed by a short break and a nice work time before last), meaning perhaps she moves forward again.

Objectively speaking, I do always prefer to see recent poly form before wagering on a horse. Some of the local horses have a few races on the surface and that can be an advantage.

that is a fair post, I disagree but I its your opinion of the race which sounds fair enough.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I think you're nuts for putting the fair value at 6/1.

Who said anything about getting hooked 3-4 wide on a hot pace? I said she can travel with the second flight, then make a 3-4 wide move on the turn and win. Good horses do it all the time. And this isn't a turf race where you can hug the rail on the turn and then swing out for the stretch drive. She's going to have to make her move somewhere on the turn, so I don't know where you want her to "take back and save some ground."

maybe I am missing it on her pp, where is that race, she looks like a pace horse?

I also dont have the chart, how have the horses who were on the pace with her last time faired next out? That would give us an idea how legit that last figure was?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

that is a fair post, I disagree but I its your opinion of the race which sounds fair enough.

You seem to be saying in your other posts that she has to take back or gun to the front which I agree would be suicidal. I don't know why you would say that really. Its four furlongs to the turn and I think there are perhaps two horses in here with more early speed. Translation: even running in her usual style she will be coming from off the leading group without any taking back effort. It will just happen naturally.

I agree with your logic when its a 5.5 or six furlong race. In that scenario from the outside you either need to get the lead or drop in somewhere rather quickly.

The only difference that I see is in this case like I said you have a very long run and it lessens the severity of the post imo.
anyway we'll see in a few days who was closer to the truth!

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

agree with that but only if you are the clear front running speed or a multi dimensional horse who can press the pace from a few lengths back, not sure this horse can, at least she never has before.

did you miss the last race?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

You seem to be saying in your other posts that she has to take back or gun to the front which I agree would be suicidal. I don't know why you would say that really. Its four furlongs to the turn and I think there are perhaps two horses in here with more early speed. Translation: even running in her usual style she will be coming from off the leading group without any taking back effort. It will just happen naturally.

I agree with your logic when its a 5.5 or six furlong race. In that scenario from the outside you either need to get the lead or drop in somewhere rather quickly.

The only difference that I see is in this case like I said you have a very long run and it lessens the severity of the post imo.
anyway we'll see in a few days who was closer to the truth!

I am just a huge believer in running styles, that the most talented horses have two dimensional styles and that the other depend on pace senarios to win, such as a front runner getting a clear lead or a closer getting a fall apart senarion with no other talented horses like him in the race.....I think the horse in question here has clearly demonstrated that she wants to be part of the pace, in fact I dont see a race where she has passed a horse in the stretch?