7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[TheSpyder]

I just read someone make reference to this so here it is.

Since we all, at least most all, want Sumonw to win, let's see who can handicap the race and lay out how it will unfold and be most accurate. I posted the form on another thread.

Let's see how many happy endings we can come up with.

No, not massage parlor type, 8th race at Arlington type.

Spyder

[Riot]

I know exactly how it will unfold:

They break well, Sumwon goes out and has an easy lead 2-3 wide as nobody else really wants the front and they think she'll burn herself out, Willie sits chilly and is doing easy 24-48, Classic Tiara is outside a length and a half back, Queen of the Ridge is on the rail a length back, testing occasionally to keep Sumwon honest but not really increasing the pace (Mojica's having a little trouble holding her), they hold that through the turn while they up the pace a little mid-turn and the back of the pack starts to close in on them. They hit the head of the stretch and as they come home all hell breaks loose.

Cannon and Kasept are standing like statues gripping the rail (Kasept's knuckles are white), Unstables' down on the rail snapping a photo every second of the stretch run but he's shaking so much from excitement they are blurry, ArlJim and Dell are starting to pump their fists in the air yelling "C'mon, girl, dig in!", BrianSpencer is beside himself yelling, "Go, go, go, GO!", Wing is jumping up and down screaming, "C'mon, c'mon, c'mon!", OneBadBeast is yelling, "Fight 'em off, girl, fight 'em off!", Riot and Sightseek are screaming unintelligibly at the top of their lungs and jumping up and down in unison, ddtheTide and Mrs Tide are screaming, "Look at her go, look at her go!" and hugging each other, and Scav is slapping his thigh so hard with his rolled-up program riding her home that beer flys everywhere, he loses his balance, and is saved from toppling over the balcony only by the combined efforts of Spyder, Sniper, GBBob, Satan's Twin and JDM.

[Danzig]

and once again, i'll be yelling at the t.v. while my dog runs for the bathroom--cause she just knows i'm yelling at her!

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Riot

I know exactly how it will unfold:

They break well, Sumwon goes out and has an easy lead 2-3 wide as nobody else really wants the front and they think she'll burn herself out, Willie sits chilly and is doing easy 24-48, Classic Tiara is outside a length and a half back, Queen of the Ridge is on the rail a length back, testing occasionally to keep Sumwon honest but not really increasing the pace (Mojica's having a little trouble holding her), they hold that through the turn while they up the pace a little mid-turn and the back of the pack starts to close in on them. They hit the head of the stretch and as they come home all hell breaks loose.

Cannon and Kasept are standing like statues gripping the rail (Kasept's knuckles are white), Unstables' down on the rail snapping a photo every second of the stretch run but he's shaking so much from excitement they are blurry, ArlJim and Dell are starting to pump their fists in the air yelling "C'mon, girl, dig in!", BrianSpencer is beside himself yelling, "Go, go, go, GO!", Wing is jumping up and down screaming, "C'mon, c'mon, c'mon!", OneBadBeast is yelling, "Fight 'em off, girl, fight 'em off!", Riot and Sightseek are screaming unintelligibly at the top of their lungs and jumping up and down in unison, ddtheTide and Mrs Tide are screaming, "Look at her go, look at her go!" and hugging each other, and Scav is slapping his thigh so hard with his rolled-up program riding her home that beer flys everywhere, he loses his balance, and is saved from toppling over the balcony only by the combined efforts of Spyder, Sniper, GBBob, Satan's Twin and JDM.

First half I see differently

Second half - yeah pretty much

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

First half I see differently

Second half - yeah pretty much

Hell..I'm not even in this group, but I'll be there cheering her on

[Riot]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Hell..I'm not even in this group, but I'll be there cheering her on

We'll have to cheer YOU and PolyHorse Partners on Thursday!

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by Riot

We'll have to cheer YOU and PolyHorse Partners on Thursday!

Unfortunately we didn't draw in Thursday..So, I'll have to live vicariously ( sp?? )through Sumwon.

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Unfortunately we didn't draw in Thursday..So, I'll have to live vicariously ( sp?? )through Sumwon.

Bummer, sorry to hear that. See you later today.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Riot

I know exactly how it will unfold:

They break well, Sumwon goes out and has an easy lead 2-3 wide as nobody else really wants the front and they think she'll burn herself out, Willie sits chilly and is doing easy 24-48, Classic Tiara is outside a length and a half back, Queen of the Ridge is on the rail a length back, testing occasionally to keep Sumwon honest but not really increasing the pace (Mojica's having a little trouble holding her), they hold that through the turn while they up the pace a little mid-turn and the back of the pack starts to close in on them. They hit the head of the stretch and as they come home all hell breaks loose.

Cannon and Kasept are standing like statues gripping the rail (Kasept's knuckles are white), Unstables' down on the rail snapping a photo every second of the stretch run but he's shaking so much from excitement they are blurry, ArlJim and Dell are starting to pump their fists in the air yelling "C'mon, girl, dig in!", BrianSpencer is beside himself yelling, "Go, go, go, GO!", Wing is jumping up and down screaming, "C'mon, c'mon, c'mon!", OneBadBeast is yelling, "Fight 'em off, girl, fight 'em off!", Riot and Sightseek are screaming unintelligibly at the top of their lungs and jumping up and down in unison, ddtheTide and Mrs Tide are screaming, "Look at her go, look at her go!" and hugging each other, and Scav is slapping his thigh so hard with his rolled-up program riding her home that beer flys everywhere, he loses his balance, and is saved from toppling over the balcony only by the combined efforts of Spyder, Sniper, GBBob, Satan's Twin and JDM.

Good stuff!

[Scav]

2 - Powder River = Pretty big rise in class without the benefit of a win, goes from Fires to Mojica Jr (who has brought in some bombs this meet). Good last work, outside contender for 3rd or 4th

3 - Miss Peachtree = This is the horse I am worried about. Gets a real positive jock switch for the type of horse she is. Baird is a speed guy, rides with confidence on the lead but when he has to close, not so good. Hung last time because of tiredness, 2nd off a long layoff and will be heard from in the lane, especially shortening up by 1/2 a furlong. Playable in all four spots

1:1a - Queen of the Ridge/Classic Tiara = Gonna combine these two because my guess is one of them scratches, especially with Jesus named to both. I would rather seen Queen run because she is guaranteed to be on the lead and lead Sum chill off her flank in perfect position (Queen ran at 5f last out). If Queen does run, will take some action with last bullet work and Merrill takes action here when he ships in. Don't see either of them hitting the board

4 - Lady Eloquence = Jesse Lantz scares me now, the guy just brings in these monster horses that have no business winning (Along with Penalba and Mojica Jr). Pass

5 - Pure Classy = Interesting horse, I think what you think of this horse is exactly what you think of Gazzella, interesting note that Hanna from Savanah didn't run a lick yesterday in an Illinois bred Stakes race, might be a key race

6 - Green Door = Bred out the ass and has a potent jock/trainer combo. Don't worry about the switch to Razo as Douglas has first call on all Pletcher horses.Lightly raced and has a chance to improve

7 - Bid on a Dancer = Pass

8 - Gazzella = Have to respect and this horse could force Sumwon to be 3w the whole way which is obviously a cause for concern. Looks more of a stayer thus two turns in her future

9 - Sumwonlovesyou = Will be able to do what she wants out here. Ideally, she is sitting 3rd a length back of Gazella/Schrerer speed duel and Martinez can push the button when needed. Love seeing the last two works from here. IMO, it is picture time

My plays for this day

R6 P4: 7,8,11/7/9/12 for $5 = $15 total
R7 P3: 7/9/12 for $125 = $125 total
R8 Tri: 3,9/3,9/5,6 for $10 = $40
R8 Tri: 3,9/3,9/2,4 for $5 = $20

[TheSpyder]

Nice account Scavs..that's what I was looking for. Still capping and will post thoughts but like your analysis. Early view is lack of early speed leaves Sumwon and 1-2 horses out front letting Sumwon take over around the turn and open.

Like a 1 mile race today at Arlington that was exactly what I would expect Wednesday and good to see honest front speed holding up.

Spyder

Gazzella looks like the one to beat. Had the dreaded inside post last out.

Good luck guys.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

Nice account Scavs..that's what I was looking for. Still capping and will post thoughts but like your analysis. Early view is lack of early speed leaves Sumwon and 1-2 horses out front letting Sumwon take over around the turn and open.

Like a 1 mile race today at Arlington that was exactly what I would expect Wednesday and good to see honest front speed holding up.

Spyder

If she runs like she ran at Churchill, she will beat this field by 2-3 lengths. That being said, rather be sitting 3rd 2w(sitting right behind the speed duel) and get first run on tiring leaders. Either of Scherer's horses will be out there, and Douglas will have Gazzella out there also. No way you want to be 3w the whole way around, if she had to I doubt it will be a problem but it will be closer at the end. She'll rate for Willie.

Any way you look at it, Sumwon will probably be 5/2 or 2/1 at off odds, and she has a hell of a chance to win this race, which is a direct complement to Chuck's training job, and the outpouring of effection that she has felt since being bought. I can't wait to meet her

[cmorioles]

I am not trying to offend, but strictly as a bettor, I think the DT horse is a very vulnerable favorite. Her style is just not conducive to this fake dirt, and there is plenty of other pace drawn in.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I am not trying to offend, but strictly as a bettor, I think the DT horse is a very vulnerable favorite. Her style is just not conducive to this fake dirt, and there is plenty of other pace drawn in.

she's performed well on poly in the past. why do you think her style isn't conducive?

[cmorioles]

Just this isn't Arlington, and certainly not 20k claimers in the dead of winter. Like I said, this is clearly as a bettor, she won't offer any value and will be overbet even.

I said the same thing about Pussycat Doll Friday night at Hollywood. There is a lot of cash to be made with this new surface. It doesn't mean I don't think the horse can win.

[AeWingnut]

I don't know how the Turfway Poly rates with Arlington poly.

These horses would have to improve to beat Sumwon

Sumwon is the class and the speed of this field. Although she won't have the lead unless she realy really wants it. I'll be surprised if they go slower than .47 for the qtr. For some reason Bris rates Sumwon 4th choice Behind the Pletcher horse and the entry.

The entry does pose a problem. Looks like you either have to be on the lead or from way out of it. <- Jesse Lantz is my favorite longshot rider at AP.

With this group her odds wil be too short for anything but a win bet.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I am not trying to offend, but strictly as a bettor, I think the DT horse is a very vulnerable favorite. Her style is just not conducive to this fake dirt, and there is plenty of other pace drawn in.

CJ,

You're 100% right. The quirky surface is a wildcard and if she tries to go, it's a dicey proposition in the lane. Think Chuck and Willie will be talking about sitting off, finding position on the backstretch and coming with a run off the turn. One of the benefits of having Martinez here is that in the successive Churchill starts she increasingly rated for him.

I assume that the opinion above is based on your figs ( http://www.pacefigures.com )... On speed, the Thoro-Graph numbers have it as a very well-matched group (see attachment). Interesting that a $30k ALW at AP could be this much more challenging than the $50k ALW at CD. I'm as concerned about her needing the race after the 45 days and missed time as the competition, based on her pattern(s) in the three race skien April-May.

No matter what, it's going to be exciting and it certainly continues to be a better scenario than running in mid-low claiming events!

(And CJ, you should really take time at some point to expound on your figs for everyone.. And we still have to get you on the radio for the segment we talked about! For everyone reading this and CJ's analysis in general, his PaceFigures are widely regarded by many in the game, as the best, if most under-publicized, available.)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I am not trying to offend, but strictly as a bettor, I think the DT horse is a very vulnerable favorite. Her style is just not conducive to this fake dirt, and there is plenty of other pace drawn in.

Here is one thing. Arlington has been mostly fair quite honestly. I have watched EVERY race that has been run over this new surface. At the start of the meet, closers were winning, but it has really evened out. When this Arlington surface gets some moisture in it, speed/rail has been winning, like the old surface. IMO, the only thing that has really changed is that we are having move competitive fields, with better horses in them, thus the racing has gotten better

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by Scav

Here is one thing. Arlington has been mostly fair quite honestly. I have watched EVERY race that has been run over this new surface. At the start of the meet, closers were winning, but it has really evened out. When this Arlington surface gets some moisture in it, speed/rail has been winning, like the old surface. IMO, the only thing that has really changed is that we are having move competitive fields, with better horses in them, thus the racing has gotten better

Despite the Cubs brainwashing, Scav is right. You can't compare this poly to others because it really hasn't been biased at all, other than the speed when wet. And it should be dry and sunny Wed for you guys. Only trouble spot, as discussed previously, is getting off the rail, which won't be an issue. You can win on the rail, it's just hard to move off of it