Entries are up! Sumwonlovesyou July 11th

[Sightseek]

Arlington Park - July 11th, 2007 - Race 8
Estimated Local Post Time: 4:28 PM
Race Type: Allowance
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Sex: Fillies and Mares
Purse: $30,500
Distance: One Mile
Surface: All Weather Track
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Powder River (KY) 4 Filly 119 Rafael Mojica, Jr.
2 Miss Peachtree (KY) 4 Filly 119 James Graham
3 Queen of the Ridge (KY) 3 Filly 115 Jesus Lopez Castanon
4 Lady Eloquence (KY) 4 Filly 119 Jesse A. Lantz
5 Classic Tiara (FL) 3 Filly 117 Jesus Lopez Castanon
6 Pure Classy (KY) 3 Filly 115 Christopher A. Emigh
7 Green Door (KY) 3 Filly 115 Eusebio Razo, Jr.
8 Bid On a Dancer (IL) 5 Mare 119 Earlie Fires
9 Gazzella (KY) 3 Filly 115 Rene R. Douglas
10 Sumwonlovesyou (KY) 3 Filly 115 Willie Martinez

[Antitrust32]

does an outside post make a big difference at one mile at Arlington?

[SniperSB23]

I guess it is a safe bet that either the 3 or the 5 scratches.

[otisotisotis]

so much for worrying about drawing the rail.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

does an outside post make a big difference at one mile at Arlington?

If you're the best horse probably not. Don't know where she stands in this field...best horse is my guess!!

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

does an outside post make a big difference at one mile at Arlington?

The 10 post wins at a 20% rate this meet. Good for Sumwon!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Unstable

The 10 post wins at a 20% rate this meet. Good for Sumwon!

how about the 9, since it looks like one horse will scratch.

[Unstable]

The early Graded Entries on DRF.com has Sumwon as the 7/2 favorite.

[TheSpyder]

Sweet!

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by Danzig

how about the 9, since it looks like one horse will scratch.

The 9 post has a 12% win rate (so pray for no scratch).

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Unstable

The 9 post has a 12% win rate (so pray for no scratch).

Friday entries for a Wednesday race and one jockey on two horses. I'm thinking two scratches is a lot more likely than none. How has the 8 post done?

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by Unstable

The early Graded Entries on DRF.com has Sumwon as the 7/2 favorite.

This has been known to change... once when Sumwon ran... so we may get better odds.

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Friday entries for a Wednesday race and one jockey on two horses. I'm thinking two scratches is a lot more likely than none. How has the 8 post done?

That goes down to 8%. Hey, if 6 horses scratch, it goes back up to 18%.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Unstable

That goes down to 8%. Hey, if 6 horses scratch, it goes back up to 18%.

Weird that it is only 8% from the 8 post. Shows how statistically insignificant those numbers usually are. Once they see the fan club Sumwon is bringing we might just get those six scratches.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Unstable

The early Graded Entries on DRF.com has Sumwon as the 7/2 favorite.

7/2 and about 60 Dee-Tee'ers strong!

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

7/2 and about 60 Dee-Tee'ers strong!

They better have the rail out in the winner's circle!

[BillW]

Note the "outside" post

in field sizes 1 thru 10 on poly @ 1 mile:

151 Total races processed

 Post Bias Report

  Post   Starters  Winners    Pct.      ROI     Avg Odds  IV   PIV
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Inside    151       26      17.22    $0.85       4.0   1.16  0.87
     1-3    453       77      17.00    $1.03       5.1   1.15  1.12
     4-6    422       57      13.51    $0.61       3.5   0.91  0.78
     7-9    150       16      10.67    $0.64       5.1   0.72  1.12
   10&up      8        3      37.50    $2.30       6.5   2.53  1.43
 Outside    151       30      19.87    $1.18       5.1   1.34  1.12

Field size up to 9:

143 Total races processed

 Post Bias Report

  Post   Starters  Winners    Pct.      ROI     Avg Odds  IV   PIV
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Inside    143       26      18.18    $0.90       4.0   1.21  0.87
     1-3    429       74      17.25    $1.06       5.1   1.15  1.13
     4-6    398       55      13.82    $0.63       3.6   0.92  0.78
     7-9    126       14      11.11    $0.71       5.4   0.74  1.19
   10&up      0        0       0.00    $0.00       0.0   0.00  0.00
 Outside    143       27      18.88    $1.12       4.9   1.26  1.08

and field size up to 8:

127 Total races processed

 Post Bias Report

  Post   Starters  Winners    Pct.      ROI     Avg Odds  IV   PIV
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Inside    127       23      18.11    $0.91       4.0   1.15  0.94
     1-3    381       66      17.32    $1.00       4.8   1.10  1.11
     4-6    350       52      14.86    $0.68       3.6   0.95  0.84
     7-9     78        9      11.54    $0.69       5.0   0.74  1.15
   10&up      0        0       0.00    $0.00       0.0   0.00  0.00
 Outside    127       25      19.69    $1.11       4.7   1.25  1.08

Looks like it's not insurmountable

[AeWingnut]

She'll be 1/9 when they first flash the odds. then maybe go up to 3/5
I know she has a big following but come on

[ArlJim78]

don't pay much attention to those pp percentages, they don't mean much.

the outside is not a bad draw at all for a mile. much better than down inside.
Because there is no horse to her outside it increases the chances of getting away clean, more room to manuever. with this draw she will get to run her race.

[Scav]

That is a great post for her people. She will dictate the race. I also expect her to move one slot down when Schrerer scratchs one of his horses. I smell a $200 straight pick three in Scav's Future. Race 7-8-9