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  #21  
Old 04-10-2023, 09:32 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Freddy.. These horses were mediocrities at 2 FOR Baffert.. WITH Baffert. The records are right there to be absorbed. They had minor graded placements beaten open lengths by Cave Rock and Practical Move. Stop pretending they were the top juveniles on the West Coast last year. They weren't special to begin with. That's the point.
I don't understand your point it seems to discount 30 years of historical evidence.
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  #22  
Old 04-10-2023, 11:10 AM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
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Could part of the answer be that all trainers arenít equal? Some do great because of the stock they get and some get the stock they get because they are great. Iím not saying either side of the argument is right or wrong because all of you make valid points. But in my mind, any expectation that the horses should perform at or near the same level with Yakteen as with Baffert is underestimating the abilities of Baffert. Or overestimating those of Yakteen. I donít think with any other top level trainer, would you expect to see their horses improve with a switch to a lesser trainer. And I say Yakteen is lesser with all due respect because he is a more than capable horseman. Heís not Baffert though.

Find it interesting that Forte got a 100 Beyer in the Breedersí Cup, a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, and a 95 in the Florida Derby but I donít hear any talk of regression.
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  #23  
Old 04-10-2023, 04:54 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
Could part of the answer be that all trainers arenít equal? Some do great because of the stock they get and some get the stock they get because they are great. Iím not saying either side of the argument is right or wrong because all of you make valid points. But in my mind, any expectation that the horses should perform at or near the same level with Yakteen as with Baffert is underestimating the abilities of Baffert. Or overestimating those of Yakteen. I donít think with any other top level trainer, would you expect to see their horses improve with a switch to a lesser trainer. And I say Yakteen is lesser with all due respect because he is a more than capable horseman. Heís not Baffert though.

Find it interesting that Forte got a 100 Beyer in the Breedersí Cup, a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, and a 95 in the Florida Derby but I donít hear any talk of regression.
Everyone knows Forte has not run as fast a race as he had in BC. I am not of the opinion he has regressed and he will be a deserved favorite in KD. That said who wants him at 3/1?
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  #24  
Old 04-10-2023, 05:24 PM
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I think heís the favorite too and deserving. I was only using his figures to counter against using what some of the Baffert horses earned earlier and saying their lower numbers now are a possible sign of regression.
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  #25  
Old 04-10-2023, 07:17 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
I think heís the favorite too and deserving. I was only using his figures to counter against using what some of the Baffert horses earned earlier and saying their lower numbers now are a possible sign of regression.
The point is none have improved which is not typical for Baffert stock
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  #26  
Old 04-10-2023, 09:21 PM
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cakes44 cakes44 is offline
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Exclude all Wood horses as always. Include the Japanese horses. Dump all Yakteen horses.

Man, this is easy!
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  #27  
Old 04-11-2023, 12:42 AM
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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
The point is none have improved which is not typical for Baffert stock
I donít know why any improvement should be automatically expected.
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  #28  
Old 04-11-2023, 08:07 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
I donít know why any improvement should be automatically expected.
I know you have watched the TC for the last three decades, so I know you have watched Bafferts colts improve. So I believe you understand the point. If you want to be rational or not, is up to you
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  #29  
Old 04-11-2023, 07:21 PM
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Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
I know you have watched the TC for the last three decades, so I know you have watched Bafferts colts improve. So I believe you understand the point. If you want to be rational or not, is up to you
I have seen them improve. With Baffert continuing to train them. From what Iím reading, it seems that the expectation is that even though they have moved to a ďlesserĒ trainer, they should improve just like his others have improved over the years. What Iím saying is that if the expectation is that Yakteen should improve them the same way Baffert does, thereís really no reason to send horses to Baffert. I donít agree with that. Baffert has questionable methods and even that might be an understatement. But heís still good at what he does and I donít think itís realistic to expect another trainer to just step in and do just as good a job.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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  #30  
Old 04-12-2023, 01:09 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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I have discussed Forte not running back to his BC pretty extensively.

The vast majority of discussion around the Derby isn't particularly informed and is biased by people's preconceptions.
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  #31  
Old 04-12-2023, 01:10 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Exclude all Wood horses as always. Include the Japanese horses. Dump all Yakteen horses.

Man, this is easy!
Taking the same opinion as pretty much everyone else is hardly a great road to winning.

Hit Show could be a very interesting play in the Derby. The Japanese horses will be dramatic underlays, and Practical Move will probably be an overlay.
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  #32  
Old 04-16-2023, 08:42 AM
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5/6 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Forte 190 (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
2. Practical Move 160 (Yakteen/Vazquez)
3. Angel of Empire 154 (Cox/Prat)
4. Tapit Trice 150 (Pletcher/Saez)
5. Two Phil’s 123 (Rivelli/Loveberry)
6. Lord Miles 105 (Joseph/P. Lopez)
7. Derma Sotogake-JPN 100 (Otonashi/Lemaire)
8. Kingsbarns 100 (Pletcher/TBA)
9. Raise Cain 64 (Colebrook/Castellano)
10. Rocket Can 60 (Mott/Alvarado)

11. Hit Show 60 (Cox/Franco)
12. Confidence Game 57 (Desormeaux/Graham)
13. Verifying 54 (Cox/Gaffalione)
14. Sun Thunder 54 (McPeek/B. Hernandez-Geroux)
15. +Wild On Ice 50 (Marr/Tohill)
16. Mage 50 (Delgado/TBA)
17. Disarm 46 (Asmussen/Rosario)
18. Reincarnate 45 (Yakteen/Velazquez)
19. Jace’s Road 45 (Cox/Geroux)
20. Continuar-JPN (Yahagi/Sakai) JPN Auto-bid
------------------------------------------------------------
21. Skinner 45 (Shirreffs/Espinoza)
22. Cyclone Mischief 45 (Romans/TBA)
23. Major Dude 40 (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
24. Mandarin Hero 40 (Fujita/Kimura)
25. King Russell 40 (Moquett/Bejarano)
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Last edited by Kasept : 04-23-2023 at 06:03 PM.
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  #33  
Old 04-17-2023, 09:46 AM
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moses moses is offline
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What is the symbol next to Wild On Ice? Gelding?
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  #34  
Old 04-17-2023, 10:29 AM
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What is the symbol next to Wild On Ice? Gelding?
Late ($6k) Triple Crown nominee.
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  #35  
Old 04-17-2023, 10:34 AM
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #36  
Old 04-17-2023, 10:36 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Late ($6k) Triple Crown nominee.
I thought it meant guaranteed last place finisher, though Disarm getting enough points could throw that into jeopardy:-)
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  #37  
Old 04-21-2023, 10:48 AM
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Almost two weeks out, is it odd that Kingsbarns, Mage, and Blazing Sevens donít have jockeys listed? Are they waiting on possible defections before making anything official? Would love to see Carmouche get a mount if possible. Maybe on Kingsbarns.
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  #38  
Old 04-22-2023, 05:44 AM
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Almost two weeks out, is it odd that Kingsbarns, Mage, and Blazing Sevens donít have jockeys listed? Are they waiting on possible defections before making anything official? Would love to see Carmouche get a mount if possible. Maybe on Kingsbarns.
Pletcher typically waits with an extraneous horse in case someone drops out and he can get an A list rider. Not sure why Delgado is waiting. Blazing Sevens is uncertain/doubtful.
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  #39  
Old 04-22-2023, 08:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Pletcher typically waits with an extraneous horse in case someone drops out and he can get an A list rider. Not sure why Delgado is waiting. Blazing Sevens is uncertain/doubtful.
Thanks Steve.
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  #40  
Old 04-23-2023, 05:37 PM
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Blazing Sevens officially passing Derby; Jace's Road back in, Skinner on deck awaiting word on Sun Thunder (expected Wednesday)..
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