#1
|
||||
|
||||
5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Oaks Day ~ 1st/4th off the turf..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 04-30-2019 at 04:05 AM. |
#2
|
||||
|
||||
Is the Edgewood that includes Newspaperofrecord and the 1/9 odds accompanying her part of the Oaks Day P6?
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel |
#3
|
||||
|
||||
Yep, first leg. Don't think she'll be 1-9 if the other Chad stays in there but obviously still very short and I too was surprised to see it included in the Pick 6.
|
#4
|
||||
|
||||
Probably 1/2 and 2/1, with the others 20+ (rightfully so. They can't win.)
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
A short priced single helps handle in a Pick-6 and Pick-5 and possibly Pick-4 depending on the other legs.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
I see that's around the ML but I will respectfully disagree. No way those two are that close. They are in different leagues unless somehow Newspaperofrecord forgot how to run.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB |
#7
|
||||
|
||||
I don’t disagree. My line would be 2/5 and 3/1... I’m just making a ML, with the notation their speed figures are pretty close and the betting public will focus on that. I’ll probably avoid the race as there’s some much more appealing races later.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
-bt- |
#9
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
|
#10
|
||||
|
||||
Yeah, but usually in cases like these I'd think the objective is also to create a big carryover for the big day. Although with the $.20 minimum, that's pretty unlikely either way.
|
#11
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
|
#12
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
-bt- |
#13
|
||||
|
||||
See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...
|
#14
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
|
#15
|
||||
|
||||
__________________
"Wise men talk because they have something to say, fools talk because they have to say something" - Plato |
#16
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
Anyway, good stuff. I love hearing stuff like this. I’ve been pretty good hitting Pick 3s but I struggle tremendously with the Pick 4 and 5...which I guess is sort of the point. |
#17
|
||||
|
||||
I've been trying more often to go skinny with races I don't like the favorite. Like for the Oaks I really like Restless Rider and think Bellafina cant be beat here. I will either single that one or add Jaywalk but wont be covering Bellafina. Risk/reward
|
#18
|
||||
|
||||
I definitely think it's worth trying to beat Bellafina.
|
#19
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
__________________
"Wise men talk because they have something to say, fools talk because they have to say something" - Plato |
#20
|
||||
|
||||
WOW — Reports on Twitter have Omaha Beach as OUT for the Kentucky Derby. Tough one for Mandella and connections! Ouch!
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|