Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Triple Crown Topics/Archive..
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-08-2012, 12:14 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,314
Default POOL 1 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager

#1 Algorithms (8-1)
#2 Alpha (20-1)
#3 Battle Hardended (30-1)
#4 Creative Cause (#20-1)
#5 Discreet Dancer (15-1)
#6 Dullahan (15-1)
#7 El Padrino (20-1)
#8 Empire Way (50-1)
#9 Ever So Lucky (20-1)
#10 Fed Biz (20-1)
#11 Gemologist (20-1)
#12 Hansen (12-1)
#13 I’ll Have Another (20-1)
#14 Junebugred (50-1)
#15 Liaison (20-1)
#16 Longview Drive (50-1)
#17 Midnight Transfer (50-1)
#18 Mr. Bowling (50-1)
#19 Out of Bounds (20-1)
#20 Rousing Sermon (30-1)
#21 Sabercat (30-1)
#22 Take Charge Indy (30-1)
#23 Union Rags (10-1)
#24 mutuel field “All Others” (8-5).
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 02-08-2012, 12:28 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
Belmont Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 7,091
Default

10/1 on Union Rags wow if 20 horses were to load into the gate this saturday he might be as high as 6/1.. Very gracious of the book to offer 10/1 what a joke
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 02-08-2012, 01:16 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

It's a morning-line on a pari-mutual bet - not book odds.

I suppose I can understand pool #1 being limited to 23 betting options with a field so someone can load up on the field early if they want ... but to make this wager more attractive the betting options should be at least 98 different horses with the 'field' being the 99.

The process of handicapping which 98 horses to use as individual betting interests shouldn't be that hard.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 02-08-2012, 02:20 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

Even though Secret Circle ran faster than older male Graded Stakes horses (albeit bad ones) he's excluded from this list after missing Haskin's top 50.

Seeing stuff like this makes me miss those fantasy contests TVG did that would start around this time each year.

The maiden Battle Hardened wins a weak race with an 81 Beyer -- Mr. Bowling wins a brutal race with a 79 Beyer on a day when a MSW race dominated by longshots goes in almost identical pace and final time.

Hundreds and hundreds of people try and load up their stables with horses like Mr. Bowling and Battle Hardened and almost no one wants to touch a horse like Secret Circle with a ten foot pole.

Just ignore the race in May, go region by region taking the best horse, and take the best ones left after that while mapping out an open slot or two for your rotation. By the time the race in May comes, you've already lapped about a thousand people.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 02-08-2012, 03:48 PM
Indian Charlie's Avatar
Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southern Maine
Posts: 8,708
Default

Yeah, well, very few people used strategy in that contest. Which is why you and I would take 7 of the top 10 spots.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 02-10-2012, 04:32 PM
Coup Verville's Avatar
Coup Verville Coup Verville is offline
Morris Park
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Chesapeake, VA
Posts: 138
Default KD Future wagers

I'm looking at Expressbet and was just wondering if we're getting the odds that are posted in red or black?
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 02-10-2012, 04:33 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,314
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coup Verville View Post
I'm looking at Expressbet and was just wondering if we're getting the odds that are posted in red or black?
You'll get the odds when the bet close Sunfay night at 6pm.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 02-10-2012, 04:48 PM
Coup Verville's Avatar
Coup Verville Coup Verville is offline
Morris Park
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Chesapeake, VA
Posts: 138
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
You'll get the odds when the bet close Sunfay night at 6pm.
Thanks, Steve
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 02-10-2012, 05:54 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

DRF always would have PP's up for all 400 or so noms to the Triple Crown series by now.

They have a link up to "2010 Kentucky Derby Futures PP's" with all of Saturday's forms ... but every single link is dead. Bang-up job they're doing with this right there.

I always enjoy scanning the PP's of all the noms and looking at how many unraced horses or horribly hopeless horses got nominated to the TC.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 02-10-2012, 05:58 PM
my miss storm cat's Avatar
my miss storm cat my miss storm cat is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 22,025
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
#14 Junebugred (50-1)
#18 Mr. Bowling (50-1)
It's a silly bet that's just for fun but I have to with these two.

I like them, especially Junebug (and yes I do know the story behind the name) and since I've now doomed them to mediocrity in their races like I do all 3 year olds that I kinda like...
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 02-11-2012, 10:18 AM
alysheba4 alysheba4 is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,424
Default

pletcher looks like he is loaded for bear.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 02-11-2012, 10:19 PM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

I jumped in for the first time in a long time. I put $15 on 10,17,22. Not sure if its $45 wasted or not. We shall see....
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 02-11-2012, 10:35 PM
Calzone Lord's Avatar
Calzone Lord Calzone Lord is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,552
Default

It should be 98 horses with the field as betting interest #99.

I'm not sure who selects the horses -- Asher, Watchmaker, Free, whoever... but it's not much harder to select the 98 horses than it is 23.

After scanning the PP's for 20 minutes I could tell you which 98 should be selected.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 02-11-2012, 10:51 PM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

As of now none of my horses are under 27-1. If it stays that way I dont mind the $45 invested. The Carla Gaines is 80-1.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 02-12-2012, 07:22 AM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Here's the live odds link: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contend...ager/live-odds

I don't know why they aren't showing the exacta pool odds now. (7:20am)


--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 02-12-2012, 06:21 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,314
Default

Single pool record $631,304 bet in Pool 1 of KDFW. Up 6.6% from last year's $592,492. Bests '05 Pool 1 mark of $620,362.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 02-12-2012, 06:29 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,314
Default

FINAL ODDS -- POOL ONE

1 Algorithms Todd Pletcher 8 12
2 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin 20 19
3 Battle Hardened Eddie Kenneally 30 46
4 Creative Cause Mike Harrington 20 17
5 Discreet Dancer Todd Pletcher 15 30
6 Dullahan Dale Romans 20 40
7 El Padrino Todd Pletcher 20 16
8 Empire Way Mike Harrington 50 33
9 Ever So Lucky Jonathan Sheppard 20 55
10 Fed Biz Bob Baffert 20 21
11 Gemologist Todd Pletcher 20 22
12 Hansen Michael Maker 12 26
13 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill 20 29
14 Junebugred Steve Hobby 50 58
15 Liaison Bob Baffert 20 56
16 Longview Drive Jerry Hollendorfer 50 99
17 Midnight Transfer Carla Gaines 50 67
18 Mr. Bowling J. Jones 50 85
19 Out of Bounds Eoin Harty 20 23
20 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer 30 71
21 Sabercat Steven Asmussen 30 34
22 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne 30 42
23 Union Rags Michael Matz 10 7
24 All Other 3yo's Unknown Trainer 9/5 3/2

$631k in pool
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 02-12-2012, 08:30 PM
Rileyoriley's Avatar
Rileyoriley Rileyoriley is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Snowy Woods
Posts: 4,484
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by my miss storm cat View Post
It's a silly bet that's just for fun but I have to with these two.

I like them, especially Junebug (and yes I do know the story behind the name) and since I've now doomed them to mediocrity in their races like I do all 3 year olds that I kinda like...
I bet #8 Empire Way and #22 Take Charge Indy.
__________________
Hillary Clinton 2016: The "Extremely Careless" Leadership America Needs!
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 02-20-2012, 01:19 PM
declansharbor's Avatar
declansharbor declansharbor is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Exit 30
Posts: 6,357
Default

I tossed a dub on Dullahan bc i felt it to be less painful than actually lighting up the twenty in the palm of my hand.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital"

- Nathan Israel
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:03 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.