3/13: Oaklawn (6th-12th; X-C P5)

[Kasept]

OAKLAWN ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5


POST-SCRATCHES


6th ALW/N$Y, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Weeks ago, Pletcher sent one horse to Fair Grounds on Risen Star Day; Sainthood who won a $60k MSW thriller. Here on Rebel Day he sends one horse; Ashaar, in a $105k first level ALW. Looks to be lone speed and Rosario finds his way aboard..

Best Value: #1 ASHAAR 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Claytnthelionheart 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Aasr 5-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Trident Hit 6-1 WON ($19.80)


OAKLAWN 7th: Essex H., 4+, 8.5f (X-C P5, P3, DD)

Cross Country P5 starts here..

SCR Tax who nicked himself up in his stall yesterday..

Best Value: #6 Green Light Go 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Silver State 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Harpers First Ride 4-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Night Ops 3-1 3rd


AQUEDUCT 8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Consistant Big Engine exits NY stake and has tactical style that fits the various possible race flows well..

Most Likely: #2 Big Engine 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Runningwscissors 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Secret Rules 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Celtic Chaos 8-1 7th


OAKLAWN 8th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

SCR #4 Soul Streit.. Like the Big A ALW that goes about 15 minutes ahead of it, this is a terrific race with some really interesting capping evaluations to make about barn changes, seasonal debuts and horses-for-courses. Few easy cross-outs to be found..

Best Value: #2 Special Reserve 12-1 WON ($18.20)
Next Best: #10 Ancient Warrior 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 One for Richie 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Marvin 12-1 10th


AQUEDUCT 9th: Correction, F&M-4+, 6f (DD)

Kansas Kis looks a tad slow at a glance, but turns back to 6f from a mile and looks to get enough of a set up to score at a square price..

Best Value: #1 Kansas Kis 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Amuse 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Call On Mischief 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Prairie Fire 9-2 5th


OAKLAWN 9th: Temperance Hill, 4+, 12f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Treasure Trove 12-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Lone Rock 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 You're to Blame 7-2 7th
Super Add: #1 Tenfold 4-1 3rd


CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

OP 7: 2-5-6 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
AQ 8: 2 (A), - (B), 7-8 (C)
OP 8: 2-10 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
AQ 9: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
OP 9: 6-9 (A), 2 (B), 1-4-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x3x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AQ 8th: 7-8): 3x2x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
Backup (OP 9th: 1-4-10): 3x1x2x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27


P4 Grid:

6: 1-10 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)
7: 2-5-6 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
8: 1-2-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 6-9 (A), 2 (B), 1-4-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (6th: 2-4): 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (9th: 1-4-10): 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27


10th: Hot Springs, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Focusing on 6f may be the key to fully mature Boldor who will be tough if King Cotton effort is his new norm. Mr. Jagermeister (whose 3yo sister H'rayforcaberneigh debuts in the 1st) needs to find more to get over in 2nd off break. Whitmore seeks amazing 5th straight Hot Springs and he has won it twice without a prep. C Z Rocket 6/5-1-0 since consigned to sprinting by Miller..

Most Likely: #1 Boldor 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Whitmore 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Mr. Jagermeister 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 C Z Rocket 2-1 WON ($7.20)


11th: Rebel (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Yes, Baffert has won 7 of the last 12 Rebels, but note that between successes of Cupid (2016) and Nadal (2020) were losses by favored American Anthem (3-2; Malagacy), Solomini (6-5; Magnum Moon), Improbable (2-5; Long Range Toddy) and Game Winner (1-2; Omaha Beach). Worth noting as sidebar to Baffert record that Concert Tour arrives here off first two starts of his career, a distinctly different pattern than the 4 beaten favorites who all had established juvenile form. Caddo River certainly the one to beat off Smarty Jones romp while Keepmeinmind makes delayed 3yo debut. Mike Rutherford's home bred Big Lake (12-1) was begging for added ground and 2-for-2 since getting it in his 3yo starts.

Most Likely: #7 Concert Tour 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #1 Caddo River 9-5 5th
Best Value: #2 Big Lake 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Keepmeinmind 4-1 6th


12th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m

Best Value: #10 Off the Meds 12-1 8th
Best Vlaue: #7 Solomonic 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 F F Rocket 8-1 9th
Super Add: #13 General Trev 6-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

8: 2-10 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
9: 6-9 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
10: 1-6 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
11: 1-7 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
12: 2-7-10 (A), - (B), 13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (9th: 2): 2x1x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (11th: 2-6): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (12th: 13): 2x2x2x2x1 = 16 x .50 = $8


P4 Grid:

9: 2-6-9 (A), 1-4-10 (B), - (C)
10: 1-6 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
11: 1-7 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
12: 2-7-10 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (12th: 5-9-13): 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[knickslions2]

Had treasure trove as a top pick since these races come out. Hope we are right here!! Good luck today

[moses]

Good luck Steve. This sequence is tougher than I thought at first glance.

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

OP SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Had treasure trove as a top pick since these races come out. Hope we are right here!! Good luck today

NTamm linked him too.. I hate these 12f events.. G/L!

Originally Posted by moses

Good luck Steve. This sequence is tougher than I thought at first glance.

It's a VERY challenging sequence, as is the 6-9 and 7-8-9-10-11 OP P-X's alone.. Any hits should be worthwhile! Good luck! Doing the small changes now..

[Kasept]

Bwahahaha..

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Bwahahaha..

Great call.

[MichiganMattA]

Rosario just chased Whitmores rabbit. This guy is something special smh

[Kasept]

X-C P5 pays $108,475.. 1 winner

[Max Caidy]

Steve, thanks for Special Reserve! Win money and exacta made the day. Great call.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Max Caidy

Steve, thanks for Special Reserve! Win money and exacta made the day. Great call.

My pleasure Max.. Carried my day too. Was best on Form2Win and poised for good effort on Thoro-Graph..

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

My pleasure Max.. Carried my day too. Was best on Form2Win and poised for good effort on Thoro-Graph..

All this, plus the switch to Maker. Definitely regret not going along with you on this one.

[Max Caidy]

Originally Posted by Kasept

My pleasure Max.. Carried my day too. Was best on Form2Win and poised for good effort on Thoro-Graph..

Embarrassed to say I’m not familiar w Form2Win. Did you ever do a write up on derbytrail?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Max Caidy

Embarrassed to say I’m not familiar w Form2Win. Did you ever do a write up on derbytrail?

Not at all! Nothing to be embarrassed about.. It's new and I haven't written anything yet but am featuring it on the show in short segments 2-3 times a week with Papo Morales of AmWager. It's an Australian-developed handicapping app that basically calculates speed using an algorithm. It's key attributes are that it's fast and easy and can be used with or without other PP's/info.

I started out rather dubious about it, but I've been learning its' ins/outs for about 90 days and am pretty amazed. It finds horses that look over-matched and discounts horses that look like they're players. It has tons of bells and whistles that I've yet to utilize and they as a company have some exciting things they'll introduce in coming months/years. Will introduce capability of 2 free races a day this week and previous 2 days are always available for back review.

www.Form2Win.com to download. It's worth checking out.

[Max Caidy]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Not at all! Nothing to be embarrassed about.. It's new and I haven't written anything yet but am featuring it on the show in short segments 2-3 times a week with Papo Morales of AmWager. It's an Australian-developed handicapping app that basically calculates speed using an algorithm. It's key attributes are that it's fast and easy and can be used with or without other PP's/info.

I started out rather dubious about it, but I've been learning its' ins/outs for about 90 days and am pretty amazed. It finds horses that look over-matched and discounts horses that look like they're players. It has tons of bells and whistles that I've yet to utilize and they as a company have some exciting things they'll introduce in coming months/years. Will introduce capability of 2 free races a day this week and previous 2 days are always available for back review.

www.Form2Win.com to download. It's worth checking out.

Thanks Steve! I haven’t been listening much lately to the show because I’m in the office but just started streaming at work. Appreciate your work.