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#61
07-26-2013, 02:15 PM
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#64
07-27-2013, 11:05 AM
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So, that was a crappy beat. If 7-1 Sakonnet Point holds on in the 5th, I'm looking at a $748 Pick 4, which would have been clutch, but if 18-1 Currency Union holds in the 4th also, I'm looking at a $6k-7k meet-making Pick 4 payout. Instead, both horses got nailed in the final yards and I got squadouche. It's frustrating to say the least, but as a daily handicapper, you have to take solace in the fact that as long as you're all around it like that and your opinions are good, you're going to cash more tickets than you tear.
Saturday, July 27 Late Pick 4: 8th: #1 Plainview is a remarkable horse on his best day. He routinely sets very fast paces on the grass and keeps going and has been a terrific claim by Greg DiPrima. He had no business in the Manhattan, but it was worth a shot with a sharp horse and now he cuts back to his regular element. He has to shake clear of #10 Sarava's Dancer, but I'm pretty sure he'll be in front going into the 1st turn and he's always tough to catch once that happens. #2 Sachem Spirit has several competitive turf races and though he comes into this off a 203-day layoff, he's gotten a positive switch to Clement's barn and is versatile enough to adapt to different pace scenarios. #3 Eternal Ruler ran a career-top BSF and tied his top TG last out and has since returned to post a best-of-50 4-furlong local turf breeze (the next fastest work was by Teen Pauline, who ran .93 slower). #4 Majestic Raffy returned with a really good effort two back, then got stuck behind a slow pace last out and gets a big rider switch to Castellano today. #5 Kris Royal looked like a real runner with his local maiden-breaker last summer, rallying with ease from off tepid fractions to score. He hasn't quite developed into the star he looked like that day, but his last was OK and he goes out 2nd off the bench for the always dangerous Charlie Lopresti. I've had enough of #8 Film Shot, who's coming off a no-excuse loss at 3-2 when loose on a soft pace. His best races have come close to the pace and if he tries to chase Plainview today, I don't think he'll be around at the finish. 9th: The awesome rivalry between #2 Stephanie's Kitten and #5 Centre Court is renewed in this small but high-quality Diana and it's tough to go against them. I'll use #1 Dream Peace as a B, since she's the only one who has competitive numbers with the top two, but it seems like her best races come on moist ground. 10th: This edition of the Jim Dandy looks like a two-horse race on paper. #5 Palace Malice would be the biggest beneficiary of a moderate pace, while #8 Mylute would be most likely to capitalize on fast fractions. There are a few others who are developing into useful 2nd half 3YOs, but none I think can yet beat either of the top two on their best. 11th: #10 Christiesborntorun looks like the clear horse to beat. He's dropping steeply in class, but he's the fastest horse in the race and Jason Servis is a powerhouse in these low-to-mid claiming turf sprints. He also gets a positive rider switch to Lezcano. I usually don't like horses like #9 Shmooz Talker who have been in good form on dirt now seemingly randomly switching to turf, but he's the rare sort who can and has run close to equally well on both surfaces; he's too logical for me to dismiss. #3 Writingonthewall, dropping for Repole and #6 Yield Bogey, who has multiple competitive turf sprints, are others I have to use. I'll also take #5 Brown Indian going out for the ATM that is George Weaver. He wasn't as good as Yield Bogey last time, but he has competitive races last year and I think he'll step forward in his 2nd start off the layoff. #11 Shotgun City is a little interesting just because of the barn switch from Persaud to Maker, but it's generally very tough to win 1st time on turf against a field of hard-knocking, experienced turf sprinters like this group. $.50 1,2,3,4,5/1,2,5/5,8/3,5,6,9,10 $75 $1 1,2,3,4,5/2,5/5,8/10 $20 Race 8 $5 WIN 4
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#65
07-27-2013, 11:53 AM
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Good luck Joe.
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#66
07-28-2013, 12:17 PM
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Sunday, July 28
The early Pick 4 looks just about impossible, so let's take a look at the late sequence. 8th: It's hard to envision a scenario where this pace doesn't get very fast for the level. Time On My Hands is cutting back, but she's always had sprint speed, Colorme Kitten was close to a very fast pace last out, Pumpkin Lane adds blinkers, Midnight Rider has been involved in quick paces her whole career, Sharon Spaghetti rushed up and set a fast first 1/4 after breaking slowly last out, Honorable Pass and Maid for Joe are both consistently involved on the front end. So I'm left with the two favorites, #7 Rodinia and #12 Top Tier Lass, to benefit from that fast pace. This is the kind of race where I usually like to take a first-time turf horse, but I just can't make a case for any of the pedigrees of the horses switching surfaces. Top Tier Lass's last race wins this and her career top came sprinting on the Saratoga turf. The concern is that she lost at 8-5 in her return race dropping for Pletcher, but she was 3-wide and chased an OK horse on a slow pace. She was claimed by sharp connections out of that effort. Rodinia gets a positive barn switch to Servis and should get the good setup she needs to get it done at this distance. I'll use #1 Time On My Hands and #11 Maid for Joe as C's. 9th: Nothing clever here either. #1 Midnight Taboo opts for an N1X instead of Friday's Curlin after reportedly going toe-to-toe with Pletcher superstar in the making Cross Traffic in the mornings. #4 Cary Street completely turned his life around since adding blinkers, following up a $10k N3L claiming win at Calder with two very good runner-ups behind stakes 3-year-olds Power Broker and Perfect Title. He also doesn't face a lot of other early speed in here. #7 Norumbega adds Lasix, already has competitive races and may be better going two turns. 10th: There are four major players in this really good edition of the Amsterdam, two speeds and two closers. #2 Forty Tales is probably a touch better than #3 Declan's Warrior, but he also had a better trip than that one in the Woody Stephens, keeping him inside and forcing him to alter course late. #1 Mentor Cane was incredible in his 7/6 return race, attending and then setting a fast pace and still drawing away to win eased up. He comes into this with a sharp Wednesday half-mile breeze. NJ-bred #6 Rainbow Heir is undefeated and very fast, the issue is whether or not a speed duel develops between him, Mentor Cane and Salutos Amigos, as well as maybe Cat Five Hurricane. 11th: #9 Spin Chief (A) ran pretty well in his debut for a horse who broke several lengths slow and was barely in the picture turning for home, flying late to get up for fourth and nearly grab third. The first two finishers that day each came back to win with double-digit BSF improvements and a clean break makes Spin Chief the horse to beat today. #3 Thingamajigger (A) is cutting back, dropping in class and may find himself setting a slow pace. #1 Magnificentmillion (A) took a lot of money for Rudy/Dubb in his debut, has done no running in two starts, but drops in class and they may have tipped their hand a bit with his good half-mile breeze on Wednesday. #4 My Teddy Bear (B) put in his best dirt race since his debut in a troubled trip last out, also drops. #7 Without Regard (B) was dreadful as the 3-2 favorite last out, but was claimed by Jacobson out of there and will win this if he can get him back to anything close to his debut. Again, will his magic be the same at Saratoga? The jury's still out. $.50 7,12/1,4,7/1,2,3,6/1,3,4,7,9 $60 $.50 1,11/1,4,7/2,3/1,3,9 $18 $.50 7,12/1,4,7/2,3/1,3,9 $18 Race 11 $4 WIN 9 Last edited by ateamstupid : 07-28-2013 at 01:37 PM.
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#67
07-28-2013, 12:40 PM
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Of course, you mean #9 in race 11, not 10.
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#68
07-28-2013, 01:37 PM
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Quote:
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#70
07-29-2013, 10:50 AM
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Taking a break from the Pick 4's today, will try to make a small profit and regroup for Week 3.
4th: Tough to see #3 Big Screen losing. He's in the best form of anyone in the race and he figures to be loose on an easy lead. The distance shouldn't be a problem, as he ran back-to-back big figure two-turn races 2/17 at GP and 3/13 on AQU inner. He'll be 4-5 or so and should have plenty left to hold off the quality closers in Cease and Tech Fall. 5th: #9 River Boss is the horse to beat, but he's dropping in for a tag off the win and it's not as though he's run way faster than these on his best day. I like #7 Bold Forest, who broke poorly and made a huge close two back as the only horse to make up significant ground in the stretch and just missed, then had a wide trip in behind a slow pace last time out, making the first move and flattening out late. I'll also use #5 My Golden Road, who's dropping in class and whose turf figs are already competitive with this group. Race 4 $40 DBL 3/7,9 $20 DBL 3/5
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#71
07-29-2013, 01:42 PM
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Nice effort out of Big Screen, Albertrani.
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#73
07-31-2013, 10:19 AM
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Wasn't able to rebound from Friday's tough beat the way I'd hoped and it resulted in an aggravating weekend. Even though it feels like I've been getting destroyed, I'm only one halfway decent ticket away from being back in the black with 3/4 of the meet remaining, so let's get back into it.
Amount Invested: $1,000 Amount Returned: $776.85 Net: -$223.15 $2 ROI: $1.55 Wednesday, July 31 Early Pick 4: 2nd: I'm not going beyond the two favorites. #2 Hot Stones was pounded to 7-5 in her debut for a barn that usually doesn't have them cranked 1st out, narrowly lost in a quick come-home effort, putting up a 74 BSF that would make her tough in here. #4 Gloria Victoria attended a quick pace in her debut, made the lead at the 1/8 pole before fading late. Cuts back a furlong and should sit a good trip stalking outside of Carla Sweetrevenge. 3rd: #3 Caxambas Pass the one to beat off a good, wide closing 3rd going shorter two back, didn't embarrass herself in dirt try, now switches back to her preferred surface. #7 Rare Penny is bred to love grass, was entered for turf before last race was rained off, put in a useful 5th in the slop, should move forward considerably 2nd out for red-hot Stall. #5 Doctor Vickie Lynn has suffered several wide trips in her recent PPs and her figures still stack up well with the favorite's. #6 Perfect Package was not good last out, setting a clear, easy pace and still folding in the stretch, but perhaps she's more fit with that race under her belt and the sharp Hushion decides not to cut her back. She should be setting or stalking another slow pace and her BSFs two and three-back make her a player. #4 Neolexia has trouble getting out of the gate, but has a very good closing punch and the barn switches to Velazquez, maybe in an effort to get her to break more alertly. 4th: I don't understand why #2 Thescreenisred should be favored against these. It is Chad Brown off a layoff with a turf horse, always dangerous, but it's not as though she ran way faster than this group last year. #1 Margaret Lillian ran her best career race going this distance on this course, could be speed of the speed from the inside. #5 Barrel of Joy was not good in her route try last out, but her two turf sprints prior to that make her a major player. I'll also throw in #4 Rakin' Gold, who has always shown ability on turf and showed up with her best effort to date last out, albeit while setting a slow pace. 5th: #7 Old Harbor has an experience edge over most of these, running a decent 2nd at MTH against open company and shows a good 3-furlong blowout for this. #5 Lavender Road went for $95k at OBS April, 12 2/3 times her sire's stud fee, after working a furlong in :10.2, has done nothing in the mornings to suggest that was a fluke, should be ready to go in her debut for former Linda Rice assistant Abigail Adsit. #4 Kicken Livi is bred to be decent, has worked regularly in the mornings with barn's OK sprinter Liquid Lunch, goes out for former Pletcher client Anstu and former Pletcher assistant Dilger. #3 Canal Six shows some solid works for Morley and picks up Rosario, but it's hard to look past Noble Causeway's 3-for-98 stats with 1st time starters. $.50 2,4/3,4,5,6,7/1,2,4,5/3,4,5,7 $80 $.50 2,4/3,5,7/1,2,5/5,7 $18 $.50 2/3,7/1,5/5 $2 Last edited by ateamstupid : 07-31-2013 at 12:30 PM.
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#74
08-01-2013, 10:26 AM
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Thursday, August 1
Early Pick 4: 3rd: It's not often you'll hear this, but Eugene Reiff has the clear horse to beat in this race. #5 Perfect Danger's last two races were big efforts, particularly his last one on 7/6, when he matched strides early with Mentor Cane, who returned to set the pace in a speed-laden Amsterdam. Needless to say, there are no comparable pace rivals in this spot, so he should have little problem making the lead and will be tough to reel in cutting back to six panels. #1 Apex has multiple figures that would make him competitive, so he should be used defensively, but he's been a pretty big disappointment since since his back-to-back placings behind Palace Malice and Micromanage last summer and he was awful 12 days ago in the Miraculousmo MSW. #2 Deadicated Deal was way better than him and finally got back to his good debut race from 4/27, when he was a closing 3rd at 20-1. If Perfect Danger gets pressured more than expected, he's most likely to benefit and will be a square price. 4th: Here we have another scenario like last Friday's 5th race wherein several contenders come out of an aberrantly high BSF race, this time the 7th from closing day at BEL. The winner was a firster for Matthew Peebles who went off at 47-1 and supposedly ran a 76 to win. Thnxtomyuncle ran 5 points higher than his top in running 2nd and, to quote Andy Serling, he's the type who would find a way to run 2nd to me in a horse suit. One More Chief was 3rd and supposedly ran a 73 in his debut for Mike Shevy. Here are the three horses behind them who'd started before: Horse Finish Beaten Lengths Previous Top 7/14 BSF Horatio 4th 1 58 73 Hooked Forever 5th 1 1/2 59 72 Saltine Warrior 6th 2 1/2 48 69 Based on that, #5 Native Singer is a deserving favorite, as his figures for his 7/4 race are easily legitimized when looking at the surrounding numbers of the horses who ran behind him. That being said, he's no superstar and there are a few price opportunities in here. It doesn't look like it on paper, but #6 Mr. G. Zee jumped forward significantly in his last start, making a wide close into a modest pace to be 2nd and galloping out well past the winner. He could get a more contentious pace to run at today and note that Schettino hikes him back into straight NY-bred maidens after offering him for a tag last out. When we last saw #3 Privatize on dirt, he was dueling through a crazy fast pace on the AQU Inner 3/16 in a race that totally collapsed. Street Lord, part of that early battle, returned to beat Native Singer and improve his BSF 17 points in his next start. Big Breesy sandwiched his pace-affected 11 BSF with a 40 and a 66 (turf), Dark Roast surrounded his 36 with a 59 and 64, Joe Mooch followed his 52 up with a 58 and two starts later ran a 70 when wiring the field Mr. G. Zee comes out of. Privatize has a 113-day layoff to contend with, but he gets to go one turn for the first time and blew out 3/8 in :35 Monday. I'll also use #2 One More Chief, as even though I think his debut fig is 10-12 points too high, it was still a good effort, as he took pace pressure on the rail every step of the way and still stayed on well late. I'll use #1 Thnxtomyuncle as a C in case he gets a pace meltdown and Mr. G. Zee isn't good enough. 5th: Another legitimate favorite here in #8 Rapid Burn, already faster than these and taking a big class drop for George Weaver, so I won't go too deep trying to beat him. #5 Smart Power wasn't bad in his local race last year, got laid up for 324 days after that, but returned with an OK 4th in a CNL MSW 7/13. Now the trainer sees fit to ship him up here after that effort and he shows an eye-popping :58.77 turf breeze around dogs from last Friday, a full two seconds (!) faster than the next quickest work at the distance. #4 Trusted Choice deserves another chance on the turf, being by Langfuhr out of a Giant's Causeway mare. He chased MGSP Film Shot in his lone grass try, wasn't seen for 465 days after that, now makes his 3rd start off that long layoff and stretches out after two foundation sprints. #1 Buckwheat drops for Maker/Ramsey/Rosario after setting the pace against much tougher, has a right to improve as a lightly-raced 3YO. #3 Tapulous has competitive dirt figures, but his lone turf race was his worst effort and his breeding is all dirt. Contessa scratched out of a main track spot where he likely would've gone favored, so maybe he knows something we don't, but this colt has had a lot of chances and he's likely to face pace pressure from Buckwheat and Fullcontrol if Maragh decides to send. I'll use him and #10 Carjon Carjon, returning off a long layoff for the sneaky McPeek, as C's. 6th: Not much to say here. There are three who can win: #1 Night Maneuver, #2 Saratoga Snacks and #3 Saginaw. Not a great betting race, but should be a fun battle between some high-quality NY-breds; obviously the home team is Gary Sciacca's Tale of the Cat ridgling. $.50 1,2,5/2,3,5,6/1,4,5,8/1,2,3 $72 $.50 5/1,3,5,6/8/1,2,3 $6 $.50 5/3,5,6/3,10/1,2,3 $9 $1 5/3,5,6/8/1,2,3 $9 Race 3 $4 EXA 5/2
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#75
08-01-2013, 10:36 AM
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LOL, Perfect Danger vet scratch. Mr. G. Zee and Smart Power also out. Will have to adjust.
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#76
08-01-2013, 11:08 AM
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Fields are significantly shorter in the Early Pick 4 now, so I'll get involved in the late sequence as well.
Race 3 $.50 PK4 1,2,6/1,2,3,5/1,4,8/2,3 $36 $1 PK4 1,2,6/2,3,5/8/2,3 $18 Race 8 $.50 PK4 ALL/3,5/1,4,5,7/9 $40 $.50 PK4 1,3,4,10/5/5/1,6,9 $6 Last edited by ateamstupid : 08-01-2013 at 03:13 PM.
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#77
08-01-2013, 11:20 AM
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? race 3 not race 2 ?
__________________
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#78
08-01-2013, 12:01 PM
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#79
08-01-2013, 02:58 PM
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Saginaw is such a cool horse. Tough trip for Saratoga Snacks. Wish I had gotten a chance to post my ticket later, as the money Confrontation took in the 3rd against that field would've made me include him.
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#80
08-01-2013, 03:13 PM
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On that note, now that I have time, I'll post an updated late Pick 4 after the 7th.
Race 8 $.50 PK4 1,3,5,6,7,10,11,12/5/1,4,5,7/6,9 $32 $.50 PK4 1/3,5,7/5/6,9 $3 $2.50 PK4 1/5/5/6,9 $5 $1 PK4 1/5/1,4,7/6,9 $6 Fiddlers Afleet is the clear horse to beat in the 8th, but he's taking a suspicious drop and the race becomes wide-open if he doesn't show up. Have a feeling the Chad Brown German-bred in the 9th will be the goods. Last edited by ateamstupid : 08-01-2013 at 03:42 PM.
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