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#1
11-05-2009, 07:49 PM
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11/6-7 (OSA): 26th Breeders' Cup Selections/Analysis
With preparations complete, attentions turn to wagering strategies for Cup Weekend. Before that, a review of last year is yet again in order. It's noteworthy I think, that favorites in 2008 exited the Cup 14/4-3-2-3. Only Sixties Icon (Marathon) and Well Armed (Dirt Mile) failed to get into the superfecta among horses that left the gate as the public choice. In addition, an assorted combination of at least two of the first, second and/or third choices were in supers in 9 of the 14 Cup events, and in the trifecta an astounding 7 times in the 14 races.
In other words, don't be so quick to blanket assume that the Cup is a bomb-in-every-slot free for all, because in many instances, keying off well bet candidates that have high expectations for success can be highly profitable. When 5-1 third choice Forever Together and 7-2 second choice Wait a While sandwiched 49-1 Sealy Hill in the 2008 Filly and Mare Turf, the tri came back $996 for $1. Also enforcing the "it only takes one price horse" theory, was the Early P4 on Cup Saturday. Players who had Desert Code in the Turf Sprint at 36-1, only needed to find 6-1 Albertus Maximus, 3-2 Goldikova and 7-2 Midshipman to cash for $6,300. Super fans should also take note of the bonus payouts when short prices fill the top slots and a bomb anchors the quad. Donativum ($5.80), Westphalia ($3.30) and Coronet of a Baron ($6.20) were 1-2-3 in the Juvenile Turf last year for a modest $153 triple. But including 29-1 City Style as your 4th resulted in a $3,025 superfecta for $1. Similarly, the three most obvious horses in the '08 Filly & Mare Sprint -- Ventura, Indian Blessing, Zaftig -- brought back $48 as a tri but $733 with not-hard-to-fathom Miraculous Miss (38-1) fourth. So, in advance of Friday and Saturday's cornucopia of wagering, be sure to remember that the "best" horses are still going to heavily factor in many slots of each of the Cup exotics... Sprinkle in plenty of pricey longshots that you believe are going to run well, and you should be able to catch the one or two bonanza payoffs that make Breeders' Cup Weekend profitable and fun. Remember not to get down on yourself if you miss early. It's a long two days with tons of opportunities. And if things don't go great, the Gr. II Las Palmas nightcap Friday is an appealing 'get out' chance! I hope you've been enjoying At the Races coverage from Santa Anita, and have a great Day 1 of the Breeders' Cup! BREEDERS' CUP - OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA PRE-SCRATCHES 1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Royal Punisher 5-1 10th Best Value: #6 Deal Breaker 8-1 WON Next Best: #9 Joshua's Dream 8-1 4th Super Add: #7 On Fire 9-2 3rd 2nd: OC/C, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #11 Miss McCall 6-1 WON Best Value: #2 She's Very Rare 20-1 10th Next Best: #5 Halfaponderosa 12-1 8th Super Add: #7 Barbara's Love 9-2 4th 3rd: 2nd Breeders' Cup Marathon, 3+, 14f (P6, P3, Jockey Challenge, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Father Time 3-1 6th Best Value: #4 Cloudy's Knight 8-1 2nd Next Best: #3 Nite Light 4-1 8th Exotics Use: #9 Man of Iron 8-1 WON 4th: 2nd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Coolmore Euro Lillie Langtry has starlet look and moniker, but doesn't strike fear either. Adored Romans' Tapitsfly from first glance this summer, and she's done nothing wrong here, but Pletcher-Pompa Speightstown miss has best chance if 7th and 8th panel suits. Shuman bomb Potosina looks versatile and ran top flight race over tough tundra and figures to save ground all the way.. Most Likely: #4 Rose Catherine 8-1 2nd Best Value: #10 Tapitsfly 8-1 WON Next Best: #8 Lillie Langtry 3-1 8th Super Add: #1 Potosina 20-1 7th <$100 P4 Play: 1: 5-6-7-9 2: 2-11 3: 3-4-5-9 4: 4-8-10 4x2x4x3 = $96 $1 Pick 4 (6-11-9-10) 4 Correct Paid $3,450.50 5th: 26th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) One of the weekend's most interesting races as well as a juicy wagerfest. Want to use everyone exiting the Alcibiades and Breen-Hall filly Bickersons who looks like she may explode every time she steps foot on the track. Looking ahead, division has makings of some serious competition as this entire group looks like a roomful of Tri Delts after you've knocked back 3-4 frosties.. Most Likely: #4 Beautician 6-1 2nd Best Value: #5 Bickersons 20-1 10th Next Best: #10 Negligee 6-1 6th Exotics Use: #8 She Be Wild 8-1 WON Super Add: #1 Zilva 30-1 7th 6th: 11th Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, F&M-3+, 10f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Amazing day of opportunities continue for Augustin Stables (George Strawbridge Jr.) as another defending Cup winner tries for a repeat. She has been more beatable this season though, and enigmatic Mott mare DYNAFORCE merits respect while offering value. Juddmonte, who wins this event like clockwork, sends solid pair as well.. Most Likely: #2 Forever Together 5-2 3rd Best Value: #7 Dynaforce 8-1 8th Next Best: #6 Midday 4-1 WON Super Add: #1 Visit 10-1 4th 7th: 3rd Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Short but nice cast facing the defending champ who comes into this as good or better than a year ago. Would be a wonderful tonic for the ailing Bobby Frankel.. Most Likely: #9 VENTURA 8-5 2nd Best Value: #2 Sara Louise 9-2 4th Next Best: #7 Informed Decision 5-2 WON Super Add: #8 Seventh Street 4-1 8th 8th: 26th Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (Classic-Distaff Double, DD, Super, Super High 5) Admit that this race has grown more confusing for me as the week has worn on. Careless Jewel, whom I offered up for one of the year's best scores this year in the Delaware Oaks and whom I anticipated as being imposing here, appears vulnerable on several fronts.. Most Likely: #7 Music Note 9-5 3rd Next Best: #1 Careless Jewel 2-1 8th Best Value: #6 Cocoa Beach 8-1 6th Super Add: #4 Lethal Heat 20-1 7th High 5 Play: #2 Life Is Sweet 8-1 WON <$75 P4 Play: 5: 4-5-8-10 6: 2-6-7 7: 2-7-9 8: 1-7 4x3x3x2 = $96 9th: 40th Las Palmas (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super) Wonderful coda to exciting day with 20-1 Drysdale filly singing like a mermaid to Argonauts.. Best Value: #4 Cat by the Tale 20-1 3rd Most Likely: #9 Quiet Meadow 8-1 4th Next Best: #3 Closeout 8-1 2nd Super Add: #6 Teamgeist 8-1 6th <$75 P4 Play: 6: 2-6-7 7: 2-7-9 8: 1-7 9: 3-4-6-9 3x3x2x4 = $72 Hope everyone got a piece of what turned out to be one of the best Breeders' Cup days I've ever had. Early double in non-Cup events gave great start to the day leading to opening P3 ($421). That was followed by weekend-making P4 of $3,450 ($1). Overlays on Tapitsfly, (whom our clocker guests raved about), and She Be Wild were instrumental in the success over the first half of the card. $641 for the 2nd-4th P3 was a huge plus, and came in advance of another $1,500+ in troikas. ($950/3rd-5th; $423/4th-6th; $176/5th-7th). Streak was stopped in the Distaff, a race in which I was honestly confused, but it hardly dented the solid negotiation of the day's offerings. Day Two looks and feels 'tougher' than today's card, so I feel fortunate to have built an early cushion. Hope you did great Friday and enjoyed the week's coverage. BREEDERS' CUP - OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA PRE-SCRATCHES 1st: 2nd Damascus, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 M One Rifle 8-5 3rd Best Value: #8 Dave's Pacemaker 15-1 8th Next Best: #1 Coronet of a Baron 6-1 4th Super Add: #7 Viscount 8-1 5th 2nd: 3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G2), 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Draw severely compromises standout Pletcher colt Interactif, but he may be good enough anyway under trip-making Kent D.. Suggest using any price horse you like even remotely in exotics as there are several here that have bottom wrung potential at insane prices including Zip Quick and Gallant Gent.. Most Likely: #11 Interactif 4-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Viscount Nelson 6-1 8th Best Value: #1 Zip Quick 50-1 11th Exotics Use: #5 Gallant Gent 30-1 7th Super Add: #7 Bridgetown 8-1 2nd 3rd: 2nd Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, 3+, 6.5f-DHT (P3, DD, Super) Probably doubtful that Mig can get the same dream trip down the hill again, but at 20-1 or so, Desert Code is in as good a position as any to capitalize on opportunity.. Maragh, who does everything right and is simply America's best young rider, cleverly arrived in CA early and took two mounts down the hill course to be ready for Diamondrella's try.. Best Value: #13 Desert Code 20-1 13th Most Likely: #9 Diamondrella 4-1 11th Next Best: #4 Lord Shanakill 8-1 12th Exotics Use: #1 Noble Court 8-1 7th Super Add: #7 Gotta Have Her 15-1 2nd 4th: 26th Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #8 Capt. Candyman Can 15-1 8th Most Likely: #1 Zensational 7-5 5th Next Best: #5 Gayego 5-2 4th Super Add: #3 Fatal Bullet 9-2 6th 5th: 26th Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) Will take same tact here as in gal edition, favoring KEE exiting runners including bonus mutuel Piscatelli who gets Desormeaux and comfy ground-saving launch spot. In terms of first time synthetic horses, suggest D' Funnybone be protected in multi-race wagers while plus Tale of the Cat progeny Aspire is too big a price to not use within the race.. Most Likely: #9 Aikenite 8-1 5th Next Best: #13 Lookin at Lucky 8-5 2nd Best Value: #2 Piscitelli 50-1 4th Exotics Use: #4 Noble's Promise 8-1 3rd Super Add: #10 Aspire 20-1 12th <$75 P4 Play: 2: 2-11 3: 1-9-13 4: 1-8 5: 2-4-5-8-9-13 2x3x2x6 = $72 6th: 26th Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Zacinto 8-1 11th Best Value: #10 Justenuffhumor 10-1 3rd Next Best: #11 Goldikova 8-5 WON Super Add: #7 Ferneley 20-1 7th 7th: 3rd Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Mastercraftsman 6-5 4th Best Value: #8 Mr. Sidney 12-1 7th Next Best: #3 Midshipman 6-1 3rd Super Add: #2 Furthest Land 20-1 WON 8th: 26th Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Conduit 7-5 WON Next Best: #7 Spanish Moon 5-2 4th Best Value: #1 Telling 20-1 7th Super Add: #6 Precious Passion 4-1 2nd 9th: 26th Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (DD, Super, Super High 5) Fascinating edition of this race as turf/synth runners are clearly the best approach with top three below proven over the surface and sure to get their runs in. Exception in my mind may be Quality Road whom I'll guess takes to the surface being by Raven's Pass sire Elusive Quality out of a Strawberry Road mare. Supremely fast, classy and sure to be overlaid, Pletcher trainee will have first run on the leaders.. Most Likely: #8 Einstein 12-1 11th Best Value: #6 Richard's Kid 12-1 6th Next Best: #4 Zenyatta 5-2 WON Super Add: #12 GATE SCR <$100 P4 Play: 6: 7-8-10-11 7: 1 8: 1-2-6-7-8 9: 4-6-7-8-12 4x1x5x5 = $100 10th: 40th Oak Tree Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (Super) Most Likely: #9 Battle of Hastings 3-1 2nd Best Value: #7 Rendezvous 6-1 8th Next Best: #6 Massone 4-1 4th Super Add: #3 Meteore 8-1 5th <$75 P4 Play: 7: 1-3-8 8: 1-2-6-7 9: 4-6-8 10: 7-9 3x4x3x2 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-10-2009 at 05:05 AM. 
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#2
11-05-2009, 07:59 PM
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Steve, what exactly did you like about the Alcibiades? Im asking because I just watched the DRF previews of each race, it was Crist and Watchmaker and they both seem to prefer the Oak Leaf over the Alcibiades.
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#5
11-05-2009, 08:13 PM
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#6
11-05-2009, 08:14 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#7
11-05-2009, 08:19 PM
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If she wins that is great really because she is top class, I'm just not choosing to use her.
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#8
11-05-2009, 08:26 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#9
11-05-2009, 08:30 PM
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#10
11-05-2009, 08:44 PM
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Great analogy Steve!
...like a room full of Tri-Delts after 3-4 frosties...."
Great coverage this week. Good luck the next 2 days. Did you see Goldikova on the track this week, and if so, what did you think?
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#11
11-05-2009, 08:59 PM
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Goldikova looks OK. She galloped vigorously today, but for whatever reason, doesn't appear to have the imposing aura around her that you think she would. Zacinto is the 'now' horse it appears in the Mile. G/L this weekend!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#12
11-05-2009, 09:01 PM
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#13
11-05-2009, 09:04 PM
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Steve,
Are they doing the dime supers this weekend? Remember them scrapping them for the TC, can't remember if they do them for this weekend. Thanks in advance, and thanks for all the info, updates and opinions. Hope you have a great BC, and cash plenty of tix.
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#14
11-05-2009, 09:33 PM
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Looks like the 6th and 7th tomorrow may be the key to the day for me, as I intend to bet P3's in the 5th by spreading about 6 horses into Midday and Ventura, and then in the 6th bet P3's off Midday and Ventura into a spread in the Ladies.
I will use Forever Together on some tickets, but live and die with Ventura. And I'm riding shotgun with Steve as I think he will dust off the crystal ball in the nightcap!!! Good luck everyone!
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#15
11-05-2009, 09:41 PM
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Thanks for the well wishes and kind words. Has again been a particularly fun week at this glorious facility, and I hope everyone will benefit from some of the info ATR offered up. You can load up on the dime supers, and this of course is an ideal couple of days to play them. Try to use "all" in the bottom slot when you can. Good luck!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#16
11-05-2009, 09:59 PM
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In other words, don't be so quick to blanket assume that the Cup is a bomb-in-every-slot free for all, because in many instances, keying off well bet candidates that have high expectations for success can be highly profitable.
Very wise words Steve. Those 10cent supers are on my radar this weekend, with some rolling doubles and P3's. Thanks for all the hard work and great coverage Steve. Best of luck! Michael
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#18
11-05-2009, 10:22 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#19
11-05-2009, 10:48 PM
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Outstanding observations from last year Steve!
Job well done with the show this week. You really fill a huge void in the racing media, reaching out to the connections on a weekly basis. Esp on Derby and CUP weeks, while the networks are busy telling people who they like to bet. I agree with the Juvy fillies being the best opportunity of the day. Your top 3 is the same as mine. I will also include Biofuel, I think she will be heard from down the lane. Post should not be an issue with her tuck and loop style. I also think Beautician is the most likely winner along with Negligee. After all, I just noticed on the TG sheets that Beautician and my daughter have the same foal date. 2-22-2007. (serious handicapping  )
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#20
11-06-2009, 12:57 AM
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entire group looks like a roomful of Tri Delts after you've knocked back 3-4 frosties
Love a shiksa godess after a 6 pack of Hamms!!!!
Steve, that was classic!!!
__________________
"I guess it comes down to a simple choice, really. Get busy livin' or get busy dyin'."
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