Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[GPK]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Where Calvin Borel lands will obviously affect the wagering as many are just going to move up whomever he rides and rightfully so.

If Comma to the Top goes and Nakatani keeps that mount then I can see Borel getting on Nehro. With Nehro already shaping up as a ridiculous underlay because of his monstrous close into a wickedly hot pace in the Arkansas Derby his odds will likely go down even more.

Twice the Appeal will more than likely not be ridden by Christian Santiago Reyes in the Derby. It's tough to say Borel will take a mount like this, but we all know what happened in 2007.

Dominguez is likely to keep the mount on Stay Thirsty if he gets in, so there are no Todd Pletcher trainees that Borel could jump on at the last minute.

I understand trainers staying loyal to jockeys, and nothing against Eddie Castro, but if I owned Toby's Corner I'd let Graham Motion know that Calvin Borel might be in the jockeys' room this year and to do something about that.

After the ride he gave Bomber Boy on Friday, I would hold a lot against him.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by paulo537

I see.

Your top two have, as you call it, a 35% chance of winning, right?

Neither of them has a greater than 50% chance of running.

Really? I'd make a humongous bet at even money that Dialed In will run. Your statement is ridiculous unless you have some inside knowledge about Dialed In's condition, which I doubt.


--Dunbar

[Travis Stone]

Does anyone think Uncle Mo goes off the favorite, despite Dialed In's win/record?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by paulo537

I see.

You don't see anything - you're acting as if you have juicy inside-info on Uncle Mo's health .... chances are - you don't.

Beyer's play a VERY small role in my handicapping. Of course - since you're the analytically incompetent Johnny Pinwheel 2.0 - I'm sure you can't see that.

The fact that you don't even understand what an overlay is - is most amusing. I'll try and explain this one last time.

From last week....

Updated Chances of winning:

Uncle Mo (18.50%)
Dialed In (14.50%)
The Factor (12.50%)
Midnight Interlude (7.50%)
Elite Alex (6%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (4.25%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Santiva (2.50%)
Archarcharch (2.50%)
Sway Away (2.50%)
Jaycito (2.00%)
Nehro (1.75%)
Astrology (1.50%)
Mr. Commons (1%)
Arthur's Tale (1%)
Decisive Moment (0.80%)
Pants on Fire (0.80%)
Animal Kingdom (0.80%)
Bretheren (0.50%)
Stay Thirsty (0.33%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)

The Rest: 3.75%

Here are the horses who ran in the Arkansas Derby - with Derby odds four weeks out - and with closing odds yesterday:

The Factor (12.5%) Closing odds: 4-to-5
Elite Alex (6%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Archarcharch (2.5%) Closing odds: 25-to-1
Sway Away (2.5%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Nehro (1.75%) Closing odds: 9-to-1
Brethren (0.50%) Closing odds: 11-to-1

No one else in the race was quoted with a Derby chance - just grouped into 'The Rest' with several hundred other 3yo's.

Archarcharch was about 12-to-1 fair value to win yesterday - and relatively stronger than that to run underneath due to his versatile running style. I also felt Elite Alex was a slight overlay in the win end - but the addition of 1st time blinkers often leads to a boom or bust type of performance.

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You don't see anything - you're acting as if you have juicy inside-info on Uncle Mo's health .... chances are - you don't.

Beyer's play a VERY small role in my handicapping. Of course - since you're the analytically incompetent Johnny Pinwheel 2.0 - I'm sure you can't see that.

The fact that you don't even understand what an overlay is - is most amusing. I'll try and explain this one last time.

From last week....




Here are the horses who ran in the Arkansas Derby - with Derby odds four weeks out - and with closing odds yesterday:

The Factor (12.5%) Closing odds: 4-to-5
Elite Alex (6%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Archarcharch (2.5%) Closing odds: 25-to-1
Sway Away (2.5%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Nehro (1.75%) Closing odds: 9-to-1
Brethren (0.50%) Closing odds: 11-to-1

No one else in the race was quoted with a Derby chance - just grouped into 'The Rest' with several hundred other 3yo's.

Archarcharch was about 12-to-1 fair value to win yesterday - and relatively stronger than that to run underneath due to his versatile running style. I also felt Elite Alex was a slight overlay in the win end - but the addition of 1st time blinkers often leads to a boom or bust type of performance.

Thanks. I'm glad you're amused, I really am. Now we're even.

It's pretty amazing that Uncle Mo tops your most likely list, or anyone's for that matter. My "inside information" is pretty much what I see:
1. He's 6-8 lengths off his 2 yo form
2. He's got distance questions
3. He ran his Wood like he was not only short but didn't look real good at any time. Changing leads multiple times like he did fairly early ain't a good sign.
4. He's got physical issues. Q-crack and his GI disorder are minor things but, at a minimum (and at best) it likely explains his subpar Wood which, to me at least, means he didn't run hard enough to get what he needed from the race.

The "mystery procedure?" I know what I read, that's all. I doubt he'd have come back so quick from anything moderate to serious. But, yeah, I'd guess he had a ittle work done.

His biggest problem is he isn't close to ready to run competitively in the Derby, much less win it. That's what I think.

You obviously think he's likely to work great, overcome whatever number and degree of physical issues he has, have no problem going 10f and run above, or at least match, his top 2 yo form. With all that he's still your most likely winner.

While I understand what an overlay is, I want to commend you making ArchArch 12/1 on your fair value line and getting $52 to win. That is hot sh1t indeed.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by paulo537

His biggest problem is he isn't close to ready to run competitively in the Derby, much less win it. That's what I think.

Not trying to straddle both sides of the fence on this issue, but you might be wrong here. The only really inspiring winning efforts have been Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe and The Factor in the Rebel. That's it. I guess you could add Dialed In's Florida Derby win if you wanted to considering, as Doug pointed out, Dialed In would have been in the lead in that stakes race for older horses earlier on the card. So let's call it three really good winning efforts. Then you have to lower the bar to get excited about anything else....

Uncle Mo came home fast in the Timely Writer.

Mucho Macho Man lost a shoe and still ran on well in the Louisiana Derby.

Shackleford was gutsy after going fast up front in the Florida Derby.

Nehro seems to be improving over his last two losses.

Comma to the Top aquitted himself well in his last two losses.

Personally, the only horse I would consider playing in the Kentucky Derby out of the Arkansas Derby are The Factor (unless I end up not buying the excuse....haven't decided yet) and Dance City (who won't get in). The Blue Grass was a joke and we know it. I'm not a fan of Midnight Interlude. And it seems like half the Derby field will be turf/polytrack specialists.

If there was ever a year where a horse like Uncle Mo can win the Derby, this is the year. He just doesn't have to beat much, and he's already been where he will need to be to win (that's not just a Beyer reference). Would any of us really say that Uncle Mo can't turn the tables on Toby's Corner? Or outrun Pants on Fire? I still think the race goes through Uncle Mo. It's his to lose. And he might not be favored.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by justindew

Not trying to straddle both sides of the fence on this issue, but you might be wrong here. The only really inspiring winning efforts have been Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe and The Factor in the Rebel. That's it. I guess you could add Dialed In's Florida Derby win if you wanted to considering, as Doug pointed out, Dialed In would have been in the lead in that stakes race for older horses earlier on the card. So let's call it three really good winning efforts. Then you have to lower the bar to get excited about anything else....

Uncle Mo came home fast in the Timely Writer.

Mucho Macho Man lost a shoe and still ran on well in the Louisiana Derby.

Shackleford was gutsy after going fast up front in the Florida Derby.

Nehro seems to be improving over his last two losses.

Comma to the Top aquitted himself well in his last two losses.

Personally, the only horse I would consider playing in the Kentucky Derby out of the Arkansas Derby are The Factor (unless I end up not buying the excuse....haven't decided yet) and Dance City (who won't get in). The Blue Grass was a joke and we know it. I'm not a fan of Midnight Interlude. And it seems like half the Derby field will be turf/polytrack specialists.

If there was ever a year where a horse like Uncle Mo can win the Derby, this is the year. He just doesn't have to beat much, and he's already been where he will need to be to win (that's not just a Beyer reference). Would any of us really say that Uncle Mo can't turn the tables on Toby's Corner? Or outrun Pants on Fire? I still think the race goes through Uncle Mo. It's his to lose. And he might not be favored.

90% of the betters out there don the blinkers and handicap soley on the last race. Very little value to be found in doing that. Uncle Mo may be the overlay of the century in the Derby.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by jms62

90% of the betters out there don the blinkers and handicap soley on the last race. Very little value to be found in doing that. Uncle Mo may be the overlay of the century in the Derby.

Here is where I think the odds will end up for the top choices at post time:

Dialed In 9-2
Uncle Mo 5-1
The Factor 10-1
Nehro 11-1
Archarcharch 12-1
Jaycito 13-1
Midnight Interlude 15-1
Toby's Corner 15-1
Mucho Macho Man 15-1
Soldat 15-1
Pants on Fire 18-1
Over 20-1 on everyone else

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Where Calvin Borel lands will obviously affect the wagering as many are just going to move up whomever he rides and rightfully so.

If Comma to the Top goes and Nakatani keeps that mount then I can see Borel getting on Nehro. With Nehro already shaping up as a ridiculous underlay because of his monstrous close into a wickedly hot pace in the Arkansas Derby his odds will likely go down even more.

Twice the Appeal will more than likely not be ridden by Christian Santiago Reyes in the Derby. It's tough to say Borel will take a mount like this, but we all know what happened in 2007.

Dominguez is likely to keep the mount on Stay Thirsty if he gets in, so there are no Todd Pletcher trainees that Borel could jump on at the last minute.

I understand trainers staying loyal to jockeys, and nothing against Eddie Castro, but if I owned Toby's Corner I'd let Graham Motion know that Calvin Borel might be in the jockeys' room this year and to do something about that.

Nehro has gotta be the horse Borel rides. He is the type of horse Borel likes to ride and Nehro might just need the CD Jock Experience that Borel has.

Doubt Nakatani gets off of Comma to the Top,#1 CTTT likes the poly #2 he is a gelding. If Nakatani plays his cards right he could have a ride on him for 2 or 3 more years in Cali. I know Nehro has ALOT better chance and Nakatani wants to win but who knows?

What about Santiva or Animal Kingdom for Borel? I would also throw in Jaycito IF The Factor goes,if The Factor is out then Martin Garcia will ride Jaycito

[justindew]

Is there any possible way no horse wins the Derby? Can all 20 lose somehow?

[santana]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Does anyone think Uncle Mo goes off the favorite, despite Dialed In's win/record?

I think he will be the fav, not by much though.

[DaTruth]

I know horses can often develop quickly between the end of their 2yo season and the Derby, but it is kinda disturbing that the fourth horse on your list was getting drubbed in a maiden race at Fair Grounds in December. Not that Archarcharch was that much more accomplished at the time, as six days later, he broke his maiden while beating three opponents in the Sugar Bowl.

[Mawhip]

Since Archarcharch was such an overlay, you must have really scored Drugs. If you didn't, then stop talking.

And if you really think Uncle Mo is 19% to win the Derby, you should find something else to do. He probably isn't 19% to run.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Mawhip

Since Archarcharch was such an overlay, you must have really scored Drugs. If you didn't, then stop talking.

And if you really think Uncle Mo is 19% to win the Derby, you should find something else to do. He probably isn't 19% to run.

Thanks.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Mawhip

Since Archarcharch was such an overlay, you must have really scored Drugs. If you didn't, then stop talking.

And if you really think Uncle Mo is 19% to win the Derby, you should find something else to do. He probably isn't 19% to run.

Is Lehman Brothers hiring?

Why did you friend me on Facebook? For the fast food reviews or the cock pics?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why did you friend me on Facebook? For the fast food reviews or the cock pics?

That reminds me...you still owe me porn.

[Mawhip]

Lehman Brothers is not hiring but I left before the collapse so it didn't really effect me other than the fact that I sold all my stock before it tanked.

I would befriend anyone on Facebook. Don't flatter yourself.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Mawhip

Lehman Brothers is not hiring but I left before the collapse so it didn't really effect me other than the fact that I sold all my stock before it tanked.

I would befriend anyone on Facebook. Don't flatter yourself.

A-F-F-E-C-T

[Mawhip]

Originally Posted by justindew

A-F-F-E-C-T

Thanks. What would I do without you.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Mawhip

Lehman Brothers is not hiring but I left before the collapse so it didn't really effect me other than the fact that I sold all my stock before it tanked.

I would befriend anyone on Facebook. Don't flatter yourself.

I'll try not to.

Ok - I've lowered my revised line to 0.25% on Uncle Mo. Thanks for the critical heads up.