BC 2010 Your Opinion

[Round Pen]

Now that we have seen the results of the BC at Santa Anita for the last 2 years, and basically seen how dirt horses with no prior experience on Syn surfaces have struggled.

Knowing that the 2010 Cup is on dirt at CD are the West Coast Horses or any horse for that matter at a real disadvantage running on dirt for the 1st time.

Plus will you adjust your wagering knowing that Fact

[johnny pinwheel]

on the wagering. the breeders cup is a sad event when the betting angle is "throw out the dirt horses in the races that are labeled dirt" ie:dirt sprint, dirt juveniles and dirt classics. what a joke, but everyone knew it was the truth. so wagering will be better where more horses have a legit shot. i'm pretty confident the "poly" and grass horses won't win all the races and they won't be cross entered in every other event like this year. face it, this years edition had some nice racing with good stories and great betting opportunities but calling it the world championships is an absolute joke when most of the dirt horses don't or can't run on the stuff. in other words the words "classic" and "dirt mile" will actually mean what it says.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Now that we have seen the results of the BC at Santa Anita for the last 2 years, and basically seen how dirt horses with no prior experience on Syn surfaces have struggled.

Knowing that the 2010 Cup is on dirt at CD are the West Coast Horses or any horse for that matter at a real disadvantage running on dirt for the 1st time.

Plus will you adjust your wagering knowing that Fact

Saturday there were very few horses that fall into this category.
In the sprint Fleeting Spirit was the only horse in the field with no prior syn. experience.Turf runner off the board.
The Juvenile- D'Funnybone at 6-1 ran horribly and Aspire at 20-1 did as well.I can't deny that these two examples make a strong case for your statement above.However they weren't the only horses who ran poorly.Radiohead,Beetoven and Alfred Nobel are turfers with no prior syn.experience who didn't perform well.The winner,a turfer,had no prior experience and Piscitelli came within 3/4 of a length of winning at 50-1.His dirt form appeared to be better than his syn. form and although he doesn't fit the criteria stated above his good dirt form prior to this race would suggest he was a toss as well.
My point is that the sampling of dirt horses trying the syn. is relatively small when you look at the big picture.Tossing D'Funnybone could give one a slight edge but there were four turfers with no prior experience to consider not to mention the horses with good synthetic form.
The Dirt Mile-Mambo Meister at 44-1 finished 5th by 2 lengths.Only horse in the field with no prior syn. form.The winner was 2 for 2 on syn. and had performed well in the majority of his dirt starts.
Classic-Girolamo ran last at 25-1 and Summer Bird was an ok 4th at 6-1.
Altogether there were 5 horses in four races who fall into the category stated above.Three ran horribly and two ran just ok.
There are dirt horses out there who can make the transition successfully.It happens every day at synthetic tracks across the nation.In raw numbers alone the odds have been against dirt horses trying syn. for the first time in the BC.I don't believe the odds are stacked against them any more than when East coast horses were shipping out west when they had dirt.And vice-versa.
Tainted or not the BC is still the Championship Day of American Racing.If it's not then what day is?

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Now that we have seen the results of the BC at Santa Anita for the last 2 years, and basically seen how dirt horses with no prior experience on Syn surfaces have struggled.

Knowing that the 2010 Cup is on dirt at CD are the West Coast Horses or any horse for that matter at a real disadvantage running on dirt for the 1st time.

Plus will you adjust your wagering knowing that Fact

Alot of Synth horses jumo up and run huge first time on dirt.
There are more of those types than the Richard's Kid type that jump up and run big on Synth.
The Breeders Cup is gonna be tricky from now on with 3 different surfaces.
I did very well this year throwing out all the dirt horses on the pro-ride.
I'm just not as sure you can throw the Synth horses out when they go to dirt.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Saturday there were very few horses that fall into this category.
In the sprint Fleeting Spirit was the only horse in the field with no prior syn. experience.Turf runner off the board.
The Juvenile- D'Funnybone at 6-1 ran horribly and Aspire at 20-1 did as well.I can't deny that these two examples make a strong case for your statement above.However they weren't the only horses who ran poorly.Radiohead,Beetoven and Alfred Nobel are turfers with no prior syn.experience who didn't perform well.The winner,a turfer,had no prior experience and Piscitelli came within 3/4 of a length of winning at 50-1.His dirt form appeared to be better than his syn. form and although he doesn't fit the criteria stated above his good dirt form prior to this race would suggest he was a toss as well.
My point is that the sampling of dirt horses trying the syn. is relatively small when you look at the big picture.Tossing D'Funnybone could give one a slight edge but there were four turfers with no prior experience to consider not to mention the horses with good synthetic form.
The Dirt Mile-Mambo Meister at 44-1 finished 5th by 2 lengths.Only horse in the field with no prior syn. form.The winner was 2 for 2 on syn. and had performed well in the majority of his dirt starts.
Classic-Girolamo ran last at 25-1 and Summer Bird was an ok 4th at 6-1.
Altogether there were 5 horses in four races who fall into the category stated above.Three ran horribly and two ran just ok.
There are dirt horses out there who can make the transition successfully.It happens every day at synthetic tracks across the nation.In raw numbers alone the odds have been against dirt horses trying syn. for the first time in the BC.I don't believe the odds are stacked against them any more than when East coast horses were shipping out west when they had dirt.And vice-versa.
Tainted or not the BC is still the Championship Day of American Racing.If it's not then what day is?

Excellent post and I agree. I dont think there were very many dirt horses who ran and were compromised. The ones who were most compromised didnt run, a la Rachel Alexandra and Fabulous Strike. I get a little sick of trainers and owners who complain about poly yet continue to try it. These are the same jerks who clam up when they start winning on it.

I cant help to think though, how Kodiak Kowboy would have fared had he go. Its kind of hard to imagine given the way the Sprint played out, he wouldnt have been coming and I think we all know he is better than Dancing in Silk.

[slotdirt]

The best a horse did who prepped for one of the "dirt" races by running on actual dirt was Ready's Echo in the "dirt" mile. Aside from that race, no horse in any other race run on Saturday that had their last prep for the Breeders Cup on dirt ran any better than Summer Bird's fourth in the Classic.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Now that we have seen the results of the BC at Santa Anita for the last 2 years, and basically seen how dirt horses with no prior experience on Syn surfaces have struggled.

Knowing that the 2010 Cup is on dirt at CD are the West Coast Horses or any horse for that matter at a real disadvantage running on dirt for the 1st time.

Plus will you adjust your wagering knowing that Fact

I think its going to be interesting, if the syn horses stay away like the dirt horses did (ie RA, FS), the euro horses dont come due to the surface....well...

I also noticed 25 million on top of the 150 million wagered was Betfair, wonder if that handle takes a hit next year?

[Gander]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

The best a horse did who prepped for one of the "dirt" races by running on actual dirt was Ready's Echo in the "dirt" mile. Aside from that race, no horse in any other race run on Saturday that had their last prep for the Breeders Cup on dirt ran any better than Summer Bird's fourth in the Classic.

Midshipman?

[slotdirt]

In the same race as Ready's Echo, but thanks, Mr. Semantics.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

In the same race as Ready's Echo, but thanks, Mr. Semantics.

I was posing a question, not telling you that you were wrong or forgot this horse. When you said "ran any better" I wasnt sure if you meant actual place he/she finished or better as in maybe a horse ran really good but got a bad trip or something.

Midshipman had everything his own way and lost after running a good race (especially considering he only had one prep in one year), but do you think he ran better than Summer Bird? Its not really a definite considering Summer Bird beat more horses in the Classic and easily could have gotten 3rd if ridden out at the end. Sorry if I offended you.

[slotdirt]

I think Summer Bird ran superior considering he clearly did not relish the surface. And yes, I meant actual placing in so far as the meaning of "ran any better."

[philcski]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

The best a horse did who prepped for one of the "dirt" races by running on actual dirt was Ready's Echo in the "dirt" mile. Aside from that race, no horse in any other race run on Saturday that had their last prep for the Breeders Cup on dirt ran any better than Summer Bird's fourth in the Classic.

I felt his best races were on synthetic anyways, regardless of the figures earned. The race he was coming out of was a piece of crap off the turfer with 3 horses. I used him underneath because I knew he'd be closing late like he did at KEE and WO. And I agree Summer Bird ran really well considering he looked like he was running in quicksand, very uncomfortable on the surface.

[hockey2315]

The synth horses will fare much better on dirt than the dirt horses fared on synth (unless they suck).

It's disheartening to know that there probably won't be a scenario of a good poly horse (Pioneerof The Nile) ducking the Breeders Cup but having an undefeated campaign on synthetics going up against Rachel Alexandra for horse of the year.


I was sooooooooooo looking forward to the 2010 Horse of the Year thread. Oh meh gawd.

[Smooth Operator]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Knowing that the 2010 Cup is on dirt at CD are the West Coast Horses or any horse for that matter at a real disadvantage running on dirt for the 1st time.

No 6-year-old has ever won the BC Classic … and some very good ones have tried … but if Zenyatta is in the gate … and IF the track is dry … she will win the 2010 edition of that great race…

[Kingturf]

Does anyone knows the start time for the 1st day of the BC on Friday? I wonder if Churchill is going to run a few under the lights? BTW, if I am breathing, I will be at the cup this year. It may turn out to be one of the last ones I will go to for a while if they make the permanent home Santa Anita Park.

[Smooth Operator]

Don't forget to pack that umbrella, Kingturf


Nothing like a good ole CD slopfest....................

[somerfrost]

Zenyatta will win the Classic if they run on broken glass.....she has shown that she can run on dirt before, other than that it's hard to tell.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Zenyatta will win the Classic if they run on broken glass.....she has shown that she can run on dirt before, other than that it's hard to tell.

Hey.

Your tip,Sighty wants to know------------------------well maybe she doesn't.

Never mind.