What did we learn...Pre BC? - Page 2

cmorioles · #21 09-30-2013, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm also unsure why everyone is suddenly in awe of Beholder. Did a lot of people not think she could win around two turns when totally unpressured on that surface?

Yeah, I don't get it either. Was nice of Rosie to just hand her an unpressured lead through easy fractions.

freddymo · #22 09-30-2013, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Maggie was raving about how well Orb looked. Said "he looks better than I've ever seen him before"

She said Cross Traffic looks like he's tailing off physically. Cross Traffic was the horse she knocked the most in that race based on appearance.

I watched them saddle the colt he was ultra mellow and he was hardily himself..Remember he is a nervey colt its possible he is maturing and he looked fit and well just much much calmer then normal.. Maggie looked great as well

10 pnt move up · #23 09-30-2013, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Yeah, I don't get it either. Was nice of Rosie to just hand her an unpressured lead through easy fractions.

I will say I just looked at her year and it was better than I thought, 3 grade 1 wins and she ran the best race in the Oaks...still not better than POS just better than I had recalled.

alysheba4 · #24 09-30-2013, 03:02 PM

what i learned was i never seem to have Little Mike and ron the greek when they Fire........

pointman · #25 09-30-2013, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

What did you take away from the Gold Cup that convinces you one way or the other about Cross Traffic? I don't think I learned anything about him from that race.

Paul

I totally agree, after that start there is nothing IMO you can say about Cross Traffic's race. Unfortunately, we still have no idea whether 1 1/4 is within his scope. But as Doug points out, the race was over for him after the stumble and I would not expect a pure speed horse to run any better than he did after such a compromising start.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm also unsure why everyone is suddenly in awe of Beholder. Did a lot of people not think she could win around two turns when totally unpressured on that surface?

She got away with such an easy unpressured lead that I too don't see why people are so in awe of that performance. Sure it was a nice race, but she could not have had more favorable circumstances. I am not sure what to take away from that race for Beholder.

10 pnt move up · #26 09-30-2013, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

She got away such an easy unpressured lead that I too don't see why people are so in awe of that performance. Sure it was a nice race, but she could not have had more favorable circumstances. I am not sure what to take away from that race for Beholder.

We know she can go really fast though and be right there with Princess of Sylmar, thats something though I am not sure anyone else can say, but she is likely to be 7/2 and not worth the risk.

I see Royal Delta about 8/5, Authenticity about 6/1. Not sure of the rest really.

cmorioles · #27 09-30-2013, 03:58 PM

While people rightfully use breaking poorly as an excuse, they also tend to underestimate the fact that horses that break poorly are often on the way down form wise. To top it off, they are often overbet because of the poor break.

Calzone Lord · #28 09-30-2013, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

While people rightfully use breaking poorly as an excuse, they also tend to underestimate the fact that horses that break poorly are often on the way down form wise. To top it off, they are often overbet because of the poor break.

They definitely do get bet. A. P. Indy, was a good 3rd beaten 7 lengths after blowing the break in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He won the BC Classic as the post time favorite in his next start.

I never really have associated breaking poorly with off form though.

cmorioles · #29 09-30-2013, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

They definitely do get bet. A. P. Indy, was a good 3rd beaten 7 lengths after blowing the break in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He won the BC Classic as the post time favorite in his next start.

I never really have associated breaking poorly with off form though.

When you are bored sometime take a look through some Saturday PPs around the country. It obviously isn't always the case, but you'll see many horses begin to tail off following an unexpected poor break (meaning horses that usually break well). Of course it helps to watch and see if another horse contributed.

RockHardTen1985 · #30 09-30-2013, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

I learned that I want no part of Graydar, I learned Cross Traffic has done enough. I learned nothing about Laughing, I learned Tannery could be a monster, I learned Departing is the fraud and congrats to Al Stall for campaigning him as such, I learned Beholder is a killer. I learned why Bill Mott is a HoF'r!

I agree with almost all of this. Except Beholder, shes OK, but Im not sold. I think Cross Traffic could be a total monster in the right races. Cigar Mile-Donn-Met Mile again.

RockHardTen1985 · #31 09-30-2013, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vegaskid

Cross Traffic isn't good enough... Indy Points Arlington was a throw out... Beholder is that good and real quick out the gate putting pace issues for all else involved.... Mucho Macho Man may be ready to take down Game On Dude... Fort Larned may retire after BC... Gary Stevens is setting up for a big BC!!

Cross Traffic isn't good enough for what? Silly. I think Cross Traffic beats MMM any day up to 9f.

Kasept · #32 09-30-2013, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

When you are bored sometime take a look through some Saturday PPs around the country. It obviously isn't always the case, but you'll see many horses begin to tail off following an unexpected poor break (meaning horses that usually break well). Of course it helps to watch and see if another horse contributed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

While people rightfully use breaking poorly as an excuse, they also tend to underestimate the fact that horses that break poorly are often on the way down form wise. To top it off, they are often overbet because of the poor break.

The immediate culprit for Cross Traffic's difficult start was attributed to the gate placement for the seldom used 10f trip. Given that it was his hind legs that went out from under him, there is every likelihood that the footing out against the rail was less than ideal.

Hard to see Cross Traffic tailing off with Pletcher eschewing his typical half mile works and giving him regular 5f drills the last month. The M.O. on Pletcher runners that are over the top is nursing them up to the race. Sure looked like Cross Traffic was being prepared for the stretchout with those solid five-eighths efforts.

parsixfarms · #33 09-30-2013, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

While people rightfully use breaking poorly as an excuse, they also tend to underestimate the fact that horses that break poorly are often on the way down form wise. To top it off, they are often overbet because of the poor break.

Cross Traffic could not have been colder on the board on Saturday. He ran the way he was bet.

Sightseek · #34 09-30-2013, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hard to see Cross Traffic tailing off with Pletcher eschewing his typical half mile works and giving him regular 5f drills the last month. The M.O. on Pletcher runners that are over the top is nursing them up to the race. Sure looked like Cross Traffic was being prepared for the stretchout with those solid five-eighths efforts.

Was Quality Road doing 2f works then by the time the BC rolled around?

Calzone Lord · #35 09-30-2013, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Cross Traffic could not have been colder on the board on Saturday. He ran the way he was bet.

Orb was red-hot on the board.

Kasept · #36 09-30-2013, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Cross Traffic could not have been colder on the board on Saturday. He ran the way he was bet.

Board action said Orb was 'supposed' to run.

10 pnt move up · #37 09-30-2013, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb was red-hot on the board.

never been too big into the "board", just as much as it may have lead me somewhere more times than not its been fools gold.

Vegaskid · #38 09-30-2013, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Cross Traffic isn't good enough for what? Silly. I think Cross Traffic beats MMM any day up to 9f.

Well we shall see... Only if Pletcher enters Cross Traffic in the classic... He does have a free ride into that race, but I suspect he will not put him in.... I just don't think he is good enough to take this group wire to wire especially with Game On Dude after the same pace....

Calzone Lord · #39 09-30-2013, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

never been too big into the "board", just as much as it may have lead me somewhere more times than not its been fools gold.

Unless it is a long layoff, first time starter, or sharp class dropper...I never get swayed even slightly by that stuff.

RockHardTen1985 · #40 09-30-2013, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vegaskid

Well we shall see... Only if Pletcher enters Cross Traffic in the classic... He does have a free ride into that race, but I suspect he will not put him in.... I just don't think he is good enough to take this group wire to wire especially with Game On Dude after the same pace....

I would not put him in either. Cigar Mile-Donn-Carter-Met. Races like that are written for a horse like him.