Friday nite at Hollywood 5/22 - Page 2

Bigsmc · #21 05-22-2009, 07:46 PM

Early P4:

1 - 1,5
2 - 3,4,9
3 - 3,9
4 - 2,6,7,9

GL

Bigsmc · #22 05-22-2009, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

In the 1st, I almost feel like the 2 has a shot because 3 and 5 seem to know no other way but to be on top and it doesn't look to me like either can rate, the 1 may get hooked up in a 3 way battle leaving the 2 to pick up the pieces. I am wondering if the 3 is good enough to clear this field and hang on.

The 2 definitely has a big shot. The other three could knock each other out and the 2 could stroll home. I initially was going to play ALL in the first, until I saw the 2nd and the 4th. Yikes.

MaTH716 · #23 05-22-2009, 07:51 PM

I agree with you both. I originally thought the 4 was the closer to play, but now it's the 2 by default.

pointman · #24 05-22-2009, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

The 2 definitely has a big shot. The other three could knock each other out and the 2 could stroll home. I initially was going to play ALL in the first, until I saw the 2nd and the 4th. Yikes.

That is really funny, I was thinking the same thing, said to myself 4 horse race might as well hit all. Then I read the second and that theory was pretty much dead. Then I got the fourth and it became clear that I have to try to take some kind of a stand in the first.

By the way, in the fourth I really like the 1 at 10-1, dropping back to 40K, turf to synth, cutting back, blinks on, think this one looks live.

Bigsmc · #25 05-22-2009, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

That is really funny, I was thinking the same thing, said to myself 4 horse race might as well hit all. Then I read the second and that theory was pretty much dead. Then I got the fourth and it became clear that I have to try to take some kind of a stand in the first.

By the way, in the fourth I really like the 1 at 10-1, dropping back to 40K, turf to synth, cutting back, blinks on, think this one looks live.

I like the 6 as a longshot play in the 4th. Nick Pappagiorgio isn't so good with firsters, but this one's dam broke her maiden in her first race at DMR and the sire is winning with 14% of his firsters. Works pretty good, maybe...

I'm counting on one or more of the firsters to go with your 1 and if he gets pressured on the front, I'm expecting him to fold his tent.

MaTH716 · #26 05-22-2009, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

With 4 of the 10 starters coming out of the April 26 first race, the replay is a must view. Interestingly run race. I've watched it 5 times and still can't make up my mind.

I just watched it about 5 times and the thing I noticed the most was how game the 2 (he was the 3 on that day) was. Not a great trip, about 4 wide and he looked like the winner at one point in the stretch until he was interfered with and had to steady. I have to rework the ticket and get him in. I thought that the 1 (5 on that day) ran well also.

Bigsmc · #27 05-22-2009, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I just watched it about 5 times and the thing I noticed the most was how game the 2 (he was the 3 on that day) was. Not a great trip, about 4 wide and he looked like the winner at one point in the stretch until he was interfered with and had to steady. I have to rework the ticket and get him in. I thought that the 1 (5 on that day) ran well also.

I don't think Izzy was going to catch Seeuat if they went around again. He was definitely bothered, but I think he was in the process of flattening out. I thought he looked a tad green and would benefit from blinks. Or, I have no clue what I am watching, which is a distinct possibility.

I'm also banking on the 1 either having to gun to clear or not liking being on the inside with plenty of speed to his outside. My first run through had all four from that race on my ticket, but I had to pare it down.

pointman · #28 05-22-2009, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I like the 6 as a longshot play in the 4th. Nick Pappagiorgio isn't so good with firsters, but this one's dam broke her maiden in her first race at DMR and the sire is winning with 14% of his firsters. Works pretty good, maybe...

I'm counting on one or more of the firsters to go with your 1 and if he gets pressured on the front, I'm expecting him to fold his tent.

That is the reason why I can't see myself going less than 5 deep there. I feel like any of the 1,2,5,7,9 could win the race, but if they let the 1 go, he will be dangerous at what hopefully will be a price. Structure is key with this early pk4 play.

ARyan · #29 05-22-2009, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

In the 1st, I almost feel like the 2 has a shot because 3 and 5 seem to know no other way but to be on top and it doesn't look to me like either can rate, the 1 may get hooked up in a 3 way battle leaving the 2 to pick up the pieces. I am wondering if the 3 is good enough to clear this field and hang on.

I keep coming back to the same thing. The #5 has never passed a horse, the #3 has, and looks to be the class of the race. However, if all three are pressing for the lead, does this just set up for the #2 to pick up the pieces.

I would love to get through the 1st with a single...

pointman · #30 05-22-2009, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I don't think Izzy was going to catch Seeuat if they went around again. He was definitely bothered, but I think he was in the process of flattening out. I thought he looked a tad green and would benefit from blinks. Or, I have no clue what I am watching, which is a distinct possibility.

I'm also banking on the 1 either having to gun to clear or not liking being on the inside with plenty of speed to his outside. My first run through had all four from that race on my ticket, but I had to pare it down.

This has been the troubling part for me going through this sequence. . . .

pointman · #31 05-22-2009, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ARyan

I keep coming back to the same thing. The #5 has never passed a horse, the #3 has, and looks to be the class of the race. However, if all three are pressing for the lead, does this just set up for the #2 to pick up the pieces.

I would love to get through the 1st with a single...

I feel the same way, I just feel like the 2 and 3 have the best shot, but I can't rule out the 5 and if I use 3 horses in a 4 horse race the one I don't use is a lock to win!

MaTH716 · #32 05-22-2009, 08:29 PM

I'm going to stay close to my original ticket.
2,5 (try to beat Rosario)
3,9
2,3,5 (adding the 2 on the drop with the constant 70 Beyers)
1,5,7,9
$48 bucks.

dean smith · #33 05-22-2009, 08:29 PM

Early P4:

1) 3
2) 1,2,3,5
3) 2,3
4) 1,7

$16

Chalky budget play for me here. I'm very inexperienced with Pick 4s.

beemerhauler · #34 05-22-2009, 08:31 PM

My play for the Hollywood early P4, 2/349/39/61 with a $2 ticket = $24

dean smith · #35 05-22-2009, 08:34 PM

If I decided to go a more aggressive route, does anyone have an opinion on the 7 as a single in the 4th?

Sometimes I just need talking out of doing stupid $hit...

dean smith · #36 05-22-2009, 08:35 PM

Like killing Jacob.

ARyan · #37 05-22-2009, 08:38 PM

Here is my shot;

1: 2
2: 3,4,9
3: 2,3,9
4: 5,7,8,9

MaTH716 · #38 05-22-2009, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dean smith

If I decided to go a more aggressive route, does anyone have an opinion on the 7 as a single in the 4th?

Sometimes I just need talking out of doing stupid $hit...

Why would you all of a sudden single a horse that you don't even have on your original ticket?
That being asked, I personally think that is the race where you probably have the best chance to spread and get a price.

dean smith · #39 05-22-2009, 08:40 PM

I have the 1 and the 7 on my original ticket. I'm talking about the 4th race.

dean smith · #40 05-22-2009, 08:42 PM

But I understand what you're saying. Why get cute, right?