Ateam's Saratoga $100 play-a-day

[pointman]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

4-figure deficit to black territory in less than a week. LET'S GO!

Nice job, Joey!

[MaTH716]

Way to go Joey!!

[ateamstupid]

Amount Invested: $2,500
Amount Returned: $2,540.37
Net: +$40.37
$2 ROI: $2.03

Saturday, August 17

Personally bummed that I couldn't make the trip for Alabama weekend like last year, but the disappointment has been dulled by a long-awaited upturn in wagering success this week. Yesterday's Pick 4 produced the desired effect, as Ballistic Sue, who's been a money-maker for me in the past, bravely held on to win the wide-open 8th at 9-1 and Awakino Cat predictably destroyed his four rivals in the finale. After some bleak days earlier in the meet, I've managed to swim back to the surface and it's time to really capitalize while my opinions are good.

Late Pick 4:

9th: This jam-packed Sword Dancer looks like a two-horse race on paper, with #10 Boisterous clearly the horse to beat on paper off his much-the-best Man O' War triumph, but he's also the type who's had a tough time stringing together big efforts. My "on top" pick is #4 Twilight Eclipse, who ran a sneaky big race in the Man O' War on ground softer than he'd like, gets back to firm turf today and could be ready for his breakout performance.

10th: #4 Princess of Sylmar will be tough to beat off a super impressive win in the CCA Oaks, but #6 Fiftyshadesofhay was pretty good herself in the Iowa Oaks and should, at the very least, get first run on the favorite.

11th: Deep, cheap turf maiden claimer with no shortage of options. #9 So Outspoken will take a lot of money for Pletcher, but that will be largely off of a dirt race, as his two turf efforts have been dreadful. He's a favorite well worth playing against. #6 Ryvit's race two-back behind Vinny Goodtimes is plenty fast enough to win this, #12 Tiu is a logical contender and #11 Pentagram has good turf breeding on the damside. I'll also take a shot with #8 Jade Master, debuting for sharp Jeremiah Englehart, mainly because he wouldn't have to be much to win this and that I love Master Commands on the grass. He's also a half to solid turf runner Paracaidas.

12th: Another race worth seriously spreading in. #3 Native Singer is coming out of a no-excuse loss at 6-5 and is another favorite worth taking a shot against. For my money, #1 Kid Wando ran the better race that day, closing from off the pace to be a good 3rd over a speed-favoring track. #6 Bottleofredorwhite is an obvious danger for Pletcher, being by Freud and a half to good NYB sprinter Ludo Bagman. The other firsters, #4 Summer Place to Be and #10 Shot to Win are hardly out of it, and I outlined before why I like #7 Mr. G. Zee when he scratched out of Native Singer's last race. #8 One Red Cat is also a threat if he can get back to his good debut race off the layoff for Chris Englehart.

$.50 4,10/4,6/6,8,9,11,12/1,3,4,6,7,8,10 $70
$1 4,10/4/6,9,11,12/1,6,7 $24
Race 9 $6 WIN 4

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

congrats mn

[knickslions2]

Keep it rolling Ateam!!

[ateamstupid]

Sunday, August 18

Really like #9 Three Streets in the 10th today. The distance is a bit of a question mark, but his 1st US race was way better than it looked on paper.

Race 10
$40 DBL 9/7,10
$20 DBL 9/9

[ateamstupid]

Would've been nice if Three Streets could've gotten a clear path sometime in the first 10 furlongs. But I guess that's what happens when they go 1:21 and change for the 3/4?

[ateamstupid]

Monday, August 19

Race 10
$40 WIN 11
$15 EX 11/6,9
$15 EX 6,9/11

[ateamstupid]

Wednesday, August 21

Late Pick 4:

$.50 2,3,4,5,7/1,3,6/3,4,7/3,6,8,10 $90
Race 7 $10 WIN 5

[tabs]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Wednesday, August 21

Late Pick 4:

$.50 2,3,4,5,7/1,3,6/3,4,7/3,6,8,10 $90
Race 7 $10 WIN 5

Good luck w/ the #5 in the 7th - I played him as well

[ateamstupid]

Starts and stops. Bleh.

Thursday, August 22

Late Pick 4:

6th: Tough to see past #1A Cheyenne Nation and #8 Z Dager, who are the two best horses on paper and should get a good setup with plenty of speed signed on.

7th: #7 Super Sky ran OK in her debut after being left at the gate, but her lack of gate works don't totally convince me that she'll figure out the start today. I'll use and press with her, but I'll also use firsters #1 Reign, #5 Best Friends and #6 Sky Painter.

8th: #3 Free as a Bird is the horse to beat, but it's questionable whether she wants to go nine furlongs and she faces other speed to both sides of her today. #4 Moonwalk got bet off the board last time and ran to the money, finishing a BTL 3rd after being wide on both turns. Should be set for a big effort 3rd off the bench. Brazilian GSW #6 Viva Rafaela deserves another chance after being very hard to handle in her U.S. debut. I'll also use #5 Floral Romance and #7 Malibu Yankee as B's.

9th: #7 Notmyfirstime is fast and could be the controlling speed after running 2nd to Console last out, but Linda Rice's pair of #3 Wee Freudian and #9 Quick Money have equal if not better turf sprints in the recent past. #5 Mr Rosenthal is worth tossing in at a big price, as he contested a sizzling pace in the Adirondack Dancer blowout race (whose BSF numbers, aside from the winner who got a bad ride next out, have been confirmed by the return runners) and still kept on well to be 3rd, now cuts back to a more suitable distance.

$.50 1,8/1,5,6,7/3,4,5,6,7/3,5,7,9 $80
$1 1,8/7/3,4,6/3,7,9 $18
Race 9 $2 WIN 5

[ateamstupid]

Friday, August 23

Race 8
$60 WIN 3
$20 EXB 3,8

[ateamstupid]

Saturday, August 24

Late(st) Pick 4:

11th: #2 Forty Tales keeps landing in spots with a ton of speed and today is no different, but passing 13 horses will be no simple task and he's gonna get overbet. I'm interested in two other off-the-pace runners at bigger prices. #9 Overanalyze showed promise as a closing sprinter at 2, then never really developed into a two-turn star at 3. Have a feeling he'll run big on the cutback. #12 Central Banker's return race was enormous and even though it was on grass, note that he jumped forward when going turf-to-dirt last fall at Churchill. Stall is as sharp as they come and the fact that he turns him around quickly to run in this kind of race is a very good sign. The speeds may cancel each other out, but of those, I want #7 Mentor Cane and #10 Let Em Shine.

12th: Tough to get past the big three, #2 Orb, #3 Verrazano and #8 Palace Malice, but #9 Transparent was so much the best in the Curlin, it's a real shame he got DQ'ed for a minor incident on the far turn. McLaughlin's barn has been on an absolute tear this week and if anyone is going to jump up and beat the top three, I think it'll be him.

13th: #7 Slamarama is much the horse to beat cutting back to a turf sprint and dropping in for a tag. The only other horse who interests me is #3 Risk Management. He was terrible in his lone turf race, but that came going longer and his running style and breeding suggest 5 1/2 will be right up his alley. The turf sprint queen looks like she's dropping him for a win off the claim.

14th: Not a good group. I'm using the only two horses to close in the Joy Seeker wire job from opening weekend, #1 As Well and #11 Chow Fun, along with #4 Left Uppercut, who could be ready to roll 2nd back from the short layoff for sneaky Matties. He puts up an out-of-town rider and with the inside the advantageous place to be on the turf, expect him to instruct to send at all costs.

Race 11
$.50 PK4 2,7,9,10,12/2,3,8,9/3,7/1,4,11 $60
$1 PK4 2,9,12/2,3,8/7/1,11 $18
$11 WIN 9,12

[ateamstupid]

Accomplished the rare 0-for-4 in my Pick 4 play today. Close to burned out from this meet.

[ateamstupid]

Amount Invested: $3,200
Amount Returned: $2,540.37
Net: -$659.63
$2 ROI: $1.59

Eight days left to make something of the summer.

Sunday, August 25

Late Pick 4:

8th: Two regally-bred horses for two patient outfits in #3 Sabbatical (1/2 to Imagining) and #10 Crown Queen (1/2 to Royal Delta) and neither would be a surprise. Hard to figure Clement firster Gondole will go off at listed 12-1. #2 Nighttiming was a work partner with barn's best grass horse Artest. #13 Hillhouse High obviously the one to beat for the infallible Chad Brown. #1 Jamaica Bay goes out for Weaver and #4 Shine a Spotlight showed enough in her debut for Wilkes to give her a shot.

9th: Even with the scratch of Film Shot, the pace should be honest enough for #4 Sachem Spirit, who was too far out of it last time. Expecting him to improve 2nd off the bench as well. #7 Sarava's Dancer may have been best that day, chasing widest of the pace players and ending up an in-touch 4th. Should work out a good trip on a speed-favoring course. #6 Gentleman's Kitten beat some solid elders in his race two-back. #1 Kris Royal and #3 Share Out would be my C's.

10th: #2 Royal Delta does throw in some stinkers, but 3rd off yet another pointless Dubai trip, she should be ready to beat this field. #1 On Fire Baby and #5 Authenticity are nice horses, but simply aren't in the same class as Royal Delta on anything close to her best.

11th: #7 Abbey Street and #10 Divine Luck both are major overlays at their 6-1 M/L. #1 Enchanting Lisa and #2 Kitten's Queen are both very logical. There has to be a decent pace in this race with three speedy stretchouts, which would set things up for #12 Inspired Exchange, who showed some promise in the spring and is bred on both sides for grass.

$.50 1,2,3,4,5,10,13/4,6,7/2/1,2,7,10,12 $52.50
$1.50 13/4,7/2/1,2,7,10,12 $15
$.50 13/4/2/1,2,7,10,12 $2.50
$.50 5,10,13/1,3/2/1,2,7,10,12 $15
$.50 5,10,13/4/1,5/1,2,7,10,12 $15

[ateamstupid]

My badski about Monday, couldn't get away to handicap the card at all. As a result, I'll double up my play for today.

Wednesday, August 28

7th: The pace in this race changed a lot with the scratches of Granby Girl and Darling Bridezilla and the result could leave #7 Holiday's Jewel loose on the lead. It'll be interesting to see how the turf course plays now that it's gotten a little moisture and I suspect it won't be the speed-favoring freeway it was last week. #9 English Rhythm and #10 Caribean Beat are the logical ones if the pace comes apart, but I'll also use the improving #6 Indian Starlight and hope her rider lets her run a little more early than he did last time. #1 Viva Allegiance has some upside, but this is a way, way tougher field than the one she ran away from in her debut.

8th: Stop me if you've heard this before: Chad Brown appears to hold the keys to this 2-year-old turf stake. #1 Granny Mc's Kitten, the full to Kitten's Dumplings, ran way too well to lose in her debut, enduring a slow start, lots of trouble and a wide trip behind a slow pace to just miss by a nose. #6 La Reine Bourbon, on the other hand, got a great trip to win her debut, but did so in fast time. #4 Candy Kitty has shown ability in her two turf starts and will be the one to benefit most if the pace is moderate.

9th: Difficult to see the pace not getting very hot in this race, considering the presence of Hyman Roth, Image of Disco and Mr Rosenthal, so things should set up nicely for likely favorite #5 Sneaky Kitten. #10 Fourseventeen, who had one the most laughably bad stretch trips you've ever seen in his last start. He gets a positive rider switch and should get first run on the closers. I'll also use #9 Status of Forces, who got shuffled back to last at the top of the stretch in the same race and still put in a pretty good close.

10th: #6 Present Course is the one to beat, aggressively spotted by Ramsey off the claim in a race where he had very little room to run in the stretch. A return to his Gulfstream race for McLaughlin probably gets it done. #10 Lasso is the logical other horse off the claim for Jacobson, but has also had a ton of chances and may be better going shorter. #5 Alvear is a good alternative to the favorites; he's bred to be a nice turf horse and showed enough in his off-the-turf debut to suggest he can run a little. Should improve with that one under his belt and getting onto the right surface.

$1.50 6,7,9,10/1,4,6/5,9,10/5,6,10 $162
$2 7/1,6/5,10/6,10 $16
$1 7,9,10/1,6/6,10/6 $12
Race 10 $10 WIN 5

[ateamstupid]

Unbelievable. Sneaky Kitten is a hanging rat. Nice waste of a $27 horse to start the sequence. SO F'ING SICK OF THIS MEET.

[ateamstupid]

3 of 4 beaten a hanging head. Tired of it. Meet from hell. Bring on Belmont.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

3 of 4 beaten a hanging head. Tired of it. Meet from hell. Bring on Belmont.

I hear ya. Waiting for Keeneland myself

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I hear ya. Waiting for Keeneland myself

Belmont, Keeneland, Kentucky Downs, whatever. Give me anything other than this nonstop skull kicking.