#21
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The Spinster will be a better gauge of how established horses handle the stuff. Happy Ticket is a pretty consistent horse. If she runs a sub 95 Beyer and doesn't hit the top three here I'll give credence to the idea that there will be good dirt horses that can't handle the poly. |
#22
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Really this new surface is no different than the new turf at the Superdome. Even the greatest athletes fail at something they have no experience over. Just look at Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn that game. It looked like they were playing on a skating rink. Advantage nawlins. |
#23
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Wouldnt that make some sense? Nah...of course not. If doesnt fit your agenda. |
#24
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If he wins the deils advocates will say it proves good horses will run on it right? So if he loses doesn't that prove the inverse? What I'm saying is that if you don't say before the race that you think he will win, you realy can't say afterwards that it proves anything. You seeing my point? Sorry to throw a wet blanket on the redboarding parade here lately, but thats my point. |
#25
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You just laid on the line your thoughts and and reasons. You have my respect, and are truly a gentleman with courage and honor. |
#26
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They played like a team posessed. |
#27
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Granted I can see your point and its a valid one. Horses untested at two turns may not be the best example to use in this case. |
#28
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I bet for value. I just dont see a horse unproven on a surface or two turns at even odds value. |
#29
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#30
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#31
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Since I'm not playing any races on Poly there this meet, grass only, why would I play that race anyway? I'll handicap and watch intently, and not have to suffer through watching a horse who looks like With A City win a race I have bet. Its much less stress. |
#32
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If CQ doesn't take to poly, he'll be a better price on Juvy day and be back at Churchill where he's 2 for 2 and will mow down the field. As I said in another thread, I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't take to poly this weekend, but I just think class is going to be enough to beat these tomorrow. |
#33
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#34
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#35
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I post my picks on another forum all the time out there for everyone to see and judge me on, not my fault you don't read it. I'll start posting them more often on here as well if that will make you feel better but I hate double posting since I know a lot of people read both forums. I don't know where you got crickets chirping since I told you I bet Silent Times in that race. As far as my not betting With a City I capped the race in the morning so I could watch the NCAA Tournament which is a million times more important to me than some second rate Derby prep over a surface that was totally unknown at the time. I thought the whole field sucked but that at 5-1 Silent Times had the best chance of actually being a quality horse. Had I known Silent Times would have gone from 5-1 to 7-2 and With a City from 30-1 to 49-1 then maybe I would have looked harder at With a City. Fact is I totally missed the fact that it was his second race off the layoff and tossed him on his form in his first race back. Unlike you though I can go back and look at it and see what I missed rather than swearing off the surface for life and making all sorts of unfounded claims that dirt horses won't be able to run on it. |
#36
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But we had a firm policy at the old ESPN board where many of us came from that if you didn't post the thoughts before the race and tried to chirp afterwards, you were scorned and ridiculed and lambasted by the entire board. It kept redboarding to a minimum. People who don't have DRF's or PP's who haven't seen a race thats being discussed(if its over already) have no business telling those who watched a race what they saw. People who don't post thoughts before a race have no business crowing about how easy and obvious something is afterwards. Maybe its a NY thing. You do that here at the track afterwards and are liable to get strangled. Its a beautiful thing. |
#37
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#38
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No I understand, I really do. The same reason you bet Silent Times is the same reason I bet Lemons Forever. I didn't like her so much as I HATED the huge fave sabatini. I was just looking for value and like you was not at all angry or stunned when I got beat. Its just that redboarding is my pet peeve. |
#39
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Guys I say give it until tonight to talk about the poly. We will know most of the answers to our questions(Can good horses run over it, Do dirt horses like it, Do turf horses like it, does it matter if they ran over it before)
Give it a few hours and every question will be answered |
#40
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I live about 45-50 minutes north of Polyway (Turfway), and I've played the poly probably as much as anyone.
One of the problems for the handicapper is that Polyway keeps changing the poly. Some here probably don't know, but back in March they scraped the top 3 inches off and really didn't publicize the move. I found out through some contacts in Louisville who ran horses there. This "insider" info (if you want to call it that) literally saved my posterior from possibly a losing season. The scraped it to lower the kickback and make the surface faster going into Lanes End Day. Eventually the news hit the press in a limited manner. This was before the recent changes (scraping it again and adding a new top layer with spandex, wire/cable coverings, and heavier wax coating for the sand) during the off season this summer. It's a tough surface to play and it's even tougher because they keep changing it. It's like trying to hit a moving target. If it was supposedly that great from the start (as Polyway and Keeneland said) then why all the changes? I'll tell you clearly, trainers don't necessarily hate it but they also say that they have horses that just don't run on it. I've even heard the term "non-poly" horse being used. No, I'm not going to name names. And the reason for that is, around here, if a trainer or jockey speaks poorly about a track then that same trainer or jockey is likely to be escorted off the premises and told to never return. Just ask Rodney Prescott (or even Shane Sellers [where ever he is these days]), Circular Quay is obviously the best horse in the race. Do I have faith enough to take a plunge at those odds. Not a chance. Circular Quay might be a "non-poly" horse and to take that risk at those odds is truly foolish. Yeah, throw him in your 50 cent P4s and at the top of your dime supers, but don't bet the house on him. It's not worth it at those odds. Last edited by todko : 10-06-2006 at 10:18 AM. |