Wild Card Matchups as of TODAY and Possible Lines

[dalakhani]

I have to admit that my preferences (as a fan, not necessarily prognosticator) may have jaded my opinion slightly on the AFC side.

When it is 3 or less, you have to accept that the linesmakers could take a side either way. I can't see Indy being dogs by more then a couple if they are dogs at all but at the same time it is rational that they could indeed be favored by more than 3. Personally, if Indy is favored by 3 or more, I would consider a pretty strong play for baltimore. Physically, I can't see Indy matching up and when Baltimore loses, it isn't by much.

KC and the Jets is going to be a game where the books will take a side and the public will push it from there. They won't open by more than 3 either way and I see it quite feasible that KC opens favored based on the fact that they are undefeated at home and also that the jets haven't played well either as of late or on the road. Matchup wise, I like the Jets if they go back to running it. On that note, maybe the Jets have TOO MANY weapons. They seem better when they keep it simple. If they try to go up and down in that stadium, KC will win.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I have to admit that my preferences (as a fan, not necessarily prognosticator) may have jaded my opinion slightly on the AFC side.

When it is 3 or less, you have to accept that the linesmakers could take a side either way. I can't see Indy being dogs by more then a couple if they are dogs at all but at the same time it is rational that they could indeed be favored by more than 3. Personally, if Indy is favored by 3 or more, I would consider a pretty strong play for baltimore. Physically, I can't see Indy matching up and when Baltimore loses, it isn't by much.

KC and the Jets is going to be a game where the books will take a side and the public will push it from there. They won't open by more than 3 either way and I see it quite feasible that KC opens favored based on the fact that they are undefeated at home and also that the jets haven't played well either as of late or on the road. Matchup wise, I like the Jets if they go back to running it. On that note, maybe the Jets have TOO MANY weapons. They seem better when they keep it simple. If they try to go up and down in that stadium, KC will win.

Huh? The Jets are far better on the road than they are at home. 6-2 vs. 4-3. And KC is a much better matchup for them than Indy. If you take Bowe out of the game, which Revis can do, their passing game is crap. Whereas the Colts can beat the Jets with Manning's third and fourth options.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Huh? The Jets are far better on the road than they are at home. 6-2 vs. 4-3. And KC is a much better matchup for them than Indy. If you take Bowe out of the game, which Revis can do, their passing game is crap. Whereas the Colts can beat the Jets with Manning's third and fourth options.

I didn't realize their road record was that good. I stand corrected. I guess what gave me that perception was that they eked out some games against detroit, cleveland and denver that really could have gone either way. You know what i mean? Yes they beat Pitt but without Polamalu that isnt as big of a deal.

Of late, they just don't seem the same team and defensively they have been inconsistent.

What do you think?

[Dahoss]

Their defense has been an issue for weeks now. IMO, when they put pressure on the QB by blitzing they are more effective. They have been getting lit up when they rush 3 and the QB has all of the time in the world. Their secondary is good, but no one can cover someone closely for 7 or 8 seconds.

They have also had some real bonehead calls and mistakes that have come back to haunt them. Holmes dropping the pass 3 weeks ago. Keller dropping the TD pass yesterday, Brad Smith dropping the pass on the fake punt yesterday (terrible call IMO anyway). Add to it a lot of stupid penalties also.

That said, I think they match up well with anyone and are as talented as any team in the league. They just need to put it together. This is when they did it last year and I think they are going to do it again.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Their defense has been an issue for weeks now. IMO, when they put pressure on the QB by blitzing they are more effective. They have been getting lit up when they rush 3 and the QB has all of the time in the world. Their secondary is good, but no one can cover someone closely for 7 or 8 seconds.

They have also had some real bonehead calls and mistakes that have come back to haunt them. Holmes dropping the pass 3 weeks ago. Keller dropping the TD pass yesterday, Brad Smith dropping the pass on the fake punt yesterday (terrible call IMO anyway). Add to it a lot of stupid penalties also.

That said, I think they match up well with anyone and are as talented as any team in the league. They just need to put it together. This is when they did it last year and I think they are going to do it again.

I think they lost their identity. It happens to a lot of teams. They got so enamored with that trio of receivers that they forgot what they are. They are a grinding team that should be playing games in the teens.

Also, I think they need to find a horse at running back and let the other guy be complimentary. I don't really have an opinion on which one but either way, one guy should get the majority of the carries.

I agree with what you say as far as talent though. That team is as talented as anyone and they could certainly put together a run. I can see them and the ravens doing that. I can't see Indy or KC doing that though.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I didn't realize their road record was that good. I stand corrected. I guess what gave me that perception was that they eked out some games against detroit, cleveland and denver that really could have gone either way. You know what i mean? Yes they beat Pitt but without Polamalu that isnt as big of a deal.

Of late, they just don't seem the same team and defensively they have been inconsistent.

What do you think?

Blah blah blah. The only one of those games that they actually got outplayed in was the Detroit game and the Lions play tough at home.

I don't know what you've been watching. They played an awful game at New England and then were putrid offensively (and outstanding defensively) against Miami. Their offense has picked up considerably the last two weeks and I'm not sure I blame the defense for sucking in Chicago. That field was a disgrace and defenders on both teams were slipping all over the place. They let up a lot of yards in Pittsburgh, but got the stops they needed to.

The main problem is the lack of a pass rush, and the loss of Leonhard hurt. They still have enough players to hold most teams to 17-20 points, so the question is whether the offense can keep playing like they have recently. I like what I've seen from Shonn Greene recently and despite what the village idiot says, Sanchez is a plenty capable, clutch QB who still is prone to some rookie mistakes.

Honestly, I don't know what to expect. Neither a run to the Super Bowl nor a first round exit would surprise me. They've got the horses, but they have to find a way to put it all together for four straight games.

[Dahoss]

I think Shonn Greene needs to be getting more carries. A lot more. He has looked a lot better than Tomlinson has in the last few weeks.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Also, I think they need to find a horse at running back and let the other guy be complimentary. I don't really have an opinion on which one but either way, one guy should get the majority of the carries.

I agree and my hope is that Greene will become the horse. He's looked better than Tomlinson for a few weeks now and he's more of a gamebreaker. The problem is Tomlinson is better in pass protection and as a receiver, though Shonn has had some decent catches out of the backfield recently.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I think they lost their identity. It happens to a lot of teams. They got so enamored with that trio of receivers that they forgot what they are. They are a grinding team that should be playing games in the teens.

Also, I think they need to find a horse at running back and let the other guy be complimentary. I don't really have an opinion on which one but either way, one guy should get the majority of the carries.

I agree with what you say as far as talent though. That team is as talented as anyone and they could certainly put together a run. I can see them and the ravens doing that. I can't see Indy or KC doing that though.

Part of their lost identity is there O-Line is not as good run blocking. Faneca can no longer pass block but was very effective at run blocking last year and they lost Woody who was also an excellent run blocker.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree and my hope is that Greene will become the horse. He's looked better than Tomlinson for a few weeks now and he's more of a gamebreaker. The problem is Tomlinson is better in pass protection and as a receiver, though Shonn has had some decent catches out of the backfield recently.

What did you think of the pass out of the wildcat yesterday? I had just been talking to a friend (also a Jets fan) about wanting to see it. I wish they would try and use Brad Smith more.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What did you think of the pass out of the wildcat yesterday? I had just been talking to a friend (also a Jets fan) about wanting to see it. I wish they would try and use Brad Smith more.

Every team has wildcat plays now and defenses are prepared for it. Few teams have had success with it this year because it no longer surprises anyone.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by 3kings

Every team has wildcat plays now and defenses are prepared for it. Few teams have had success with it this year because it no longer surprises anyone.

Agreed, but I think the wildcat still works for the Jets because Brad Smith is such a playmaker. At least it has a handful of times this year and they only break it out once or twice a game. I just don't remember seeing them pass out of it this year, until yesterday. Normally it's just Smith running the option.

[horseofcourse]

Kansas City can really, really run. I'm not sure what it means, but they can run. Charles is a superstar. I know the talking clown show on TV always talk about how you really, really need to run in January. Don't they run better than anyone in the playoffs? I'm shocked they're in the playoffs and would ignore them but everyone always says how you have to run in january so I guess since they do it best you have to look at them.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What did you think of the pass out of the wildcat yesterday? I had just been talking to a friend (also a Jets fan) about wanting to see it. I wish they would try and use Brad Smith more.

The fact that he's thrown two passes this year is a testament to how stupid Schottenheimer is. Dude was a four-year college QB with a strong arm and there are dozens of RBs and WRs who have thrown more passes than him this year. It also makes teams stop creeping up to the line whenever they see him in the game. I also like lining him up under center rather than in the shotgun all the time.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Have you looked at their schedule? Their signature wins were against the 8-7 Chargers (who beat them 31-0 later in the year) and the 8-7 Jags (who got beat by the Redskins today).

Oh no...the Book of Statistics.



blech

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Have you looked at their schedule? Their signature wins were against the 8-7 Chargers (who beat them 31-0 later in the year)

Yeah, that 2nd Charger game when they played Brody Croyle was a definitive mark against the KC Chiefs...good one. They may be the worst of the AFc playoff teams....but do better than presenting the 2nd Charger game as evidence of that fact.

[clyde]

I think the P.A.T.S. game against the Browns was rather definitive as well.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by clyde

I think the P.A.T.S. game against the Browns was rather definitive as well.

I think the Pats are beatable and the Browns gave the blue print. You can run on them. The Matt Flynn Packers ran on them too. The Bills rammed it down their throat in the first quarter but Ryan Fitzpatrick or Chan Gailey or both decided they needed to stop running on them despite Fred Jackson averaging over 6 yards per carry. Of all the teams in the playoffs, the Ravens and Chiefs can beat the Pats, whether they get there or not is questionable.

[clyde]

It should be pretty wide open.I don't see any obvious teams to beat out there.



But you can't say anything against the Jest, because after all....this isn't Kentucky.






=============

Oh gosh...I mean to say the Jest.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Green Bay at Philly

New Orleans at St. Louis

New York Jets at KC

Baltimore at Indy

There is a potential that all 4 road teams win the opening round. Not saying that is going to happen but surely at least 2 of those teams and possibly three will be favored. If I were setting the lines, I would go:

GB at Philly: Pick

New Orleans -7 at St Louis

Jets at KC: KC -2

Baltimore at Indy: Ravens -3

I think the linesmakers are going to have a really tough time with each of these games except for maybe the New Orleans game where they will be at least a td but no more than 9.5. Indy is getting healthier at the right time and they have owned the ravens over the years. I can't imagine Peyton getting too many points at home in the playoffs (if any at all) but Baltimore is a tough matchup for them this year. KC is undefeated at home this year but they are not good against the run. The jets are having problems but it is still a new york team. Philly/GB should be 2 or less. I can't imagine GB being favored.

Your lines are off.
Philly would be minus 3 at home for that reasson.
Jets and KC would open around a pick and I think the Jets would be favored at game time.
Colts would open as small chalk at home, but BALTIMORE WOULD GET BET TO FAVORITE.
Saints would be 10 or higher.