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#21
06-15-2008, 06:38 PM
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There's much to be said about grinding out a .99 ROI and making up the difference in rebates (and volume). For those in CLUELESS circles, this has become the de facto way to do things. Frankly, I don't get it. The game to me is the ultimate challenge and has a certain aesthetic quality to it; it's as much art as it is a skill. Crunching numbers, abstractions, that have no resemblance to the game itself to eek out a small profit is probably something like being forced to jack off to gay porn when you're straight. Luckily, there's an alternative to this method. It's the liberating method of watching races. Get good at this and a 1.5 ROI is commonplace. In fact, this is probably the level during a LOSING streak. Then, any discussion about the .99 ROI method is kind of uninteresting. This is something that Fischer and his friends don't quite get. The is the realm of HAVING AN OPINION. Needless to say, I hang on every new posting in Fischer's monologues. 
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#22
06-15-2008, 06:45 PM
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This has thread of the year potential......
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#24
06-15-2008, 07:35 PM
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#25
06-15-2008, 08:04 PM
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Roflzzz....
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exact math = $166 Wagered $248.2 Returned 1.495181 --------- =1.495 ROI respect my "swagger" everyone is allowed to have their own style. We've got some people that work in the industry. There's a pecking order. Steve Byk and all these people are at the top. I also respect Fat Man's opinion. Stop being a baby and maybe we can bs a race sometime. Last edited by Bobby Fischer : 06-15-2008 at 08:10 PM. Reason: LIBERATE THIS
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#26
06-15-2008, 08:45 PM
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maybe he does have a positive roi, and i wont lie...... my roi since jan 1 is not great... but i will never ever let anyone convince me that betting show on 6-5 fav. is a good bet... especially frankel today, shes was not a lock to run 1-2-3 .....
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#27
06-15-2008, 08:46 PM
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#28
06-15-2008, 09:29 PM
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#29
06-15-2008, 09:34 PM
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i dont know what % though, i guess if i had to say, i would say there was a 50% chance she could have bombed and ran out of the top 3
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#30
06-15-2008, 09:56 PM
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If you think she will pay $3 and has a 50% chance thats only a 0.75 roi. Meaning if you are right and did that over a million bets, you would lose a quarter for every dollar you bet. I thought she was easily the best. I thought she had about a 75% chance of finishing top 3. So for my opinion if I was right was an roi of 1.125. So over a million bets if i was right that would be a profit of 12cents per every dollar bet. We just had different opinions about how good the horse was. If I had the same opinion as you, I definetly wouldn't have bet. As far as the horse being 6-5, he wasn't getting the same kind of money in the show pool. He ended up paying 4.40 to win and 3.10 to show. Here is what the pools looked like after ALL bets were counted. 
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#31
06-15-2008, 10:07 PM
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why not crush her to win ?
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#32
06-15-2008, 10:19 PM
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#33
06-15-2008, 10:26 PM
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100 to win ? im confused, or wait... better yet... why not forget shot... and a large win/place ?
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#34
06-15-2008, 10:46 PM
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Lovely Isle was an atrocious bet to win, place, or show regardless of the results.
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#36
06-16-2008, 08:40 AM
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Think about this example: A man in the grociery store is selling bundles of CASH. One catch!, you can only spend $1,000. $7 cost you $6.95 $6 cost you $6 $5 cost you $4 Why did you buy the $5 dollar bundles? Why didn't you load up on the $7 dollar bundles?
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#37
06-16-2008, 08:58 AM
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show betting for profit is a joke at this rate it will take you till btw is president of peta to make your 2k..and guess what..what happens when your chalky fave runs out of the money......
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#38
06-16-2008, 09:08 AM
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#39
06-16-2008, 10:40 AM
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For those who play Delaware Park
some Quirky track configuration info that you should take note of:
races 5,7 today at the About 1 1/16th turf distance. Starting near a slight turn in the shoot, they go about 8 seconds before the shoot turn, and then enter Turn1 at about 27 seconds. Difficult for outside speed, particularly those who have built their past performances on easy leads. Outside posts require skilled handling by the jockeys. --- allright... we can see in the 7th that the uncoupled Matz entry(#s4,11) plays a role in the track configuration information. The 11 potentially lays over the field in talent, has a jockey that can judge the track configuration and the pace in Dominguez. The 4 has potential to clear the field, he's in there to be a rabbit, but could still compete for the tri... Too bad Kyle Branch is on. Matz is no dummy, Branch off and Napravinik on the 4. Also Add the potent drug Amicar to the 11. Last edited by Bobby Fischer : 06-16-2008 at 11:04 AM. Reason: adding MORE info
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#40
06-16-2008, 12:42 PM
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Delaware Race3 $6 to win on #5 Rasser
estimated $2 price=15 est. hit%=.125 Value=1.125 edgefactor=.168 wager amount=6 Delaware Race3 $16 to place on #5 Rasser estimated $2 price=8 est. hit%=.35 Value=1.4 edgefactor=.49 wager amount=16
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