8/26: Saratoga (154th Travers Day; 4th-13th)

Kasept · #1 08-26-2023, 04:22 AM

SARATOGA ~ TRAVERS DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Bold Journey 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Scocciatore 9-2 WON ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #3 Osbourne 6-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Champions Dream 6-1 6th

5th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Interesting spot for Norm Casse to place Bear Oak who proved long-winded in 10f win and has synthetic form. 15-1 the right price to take flyer..

Best Value: #4 Bear Oak 15-1 WON ($37.20)
Next Best: #6 Nobel 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Dynadrive 5-1 7th
Super Add: #7 James Aloysius 2-1 4th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

This is a maniacally difficult group to decipher with 2 each from Pletcher, Mott and Brown..

Most Likely: #4 Shop Lifting 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 She's Wicked Smart 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Just F Y I 9-2 WON ($9.50)
Exotics Use: #6 Cowgirl Charm 5-1 8th

7th: 44th Forego (G1), 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Gunite may be tougher to reel in today, but if you haven't noticed, Elite Power has won 8 straight at 5 different venues including 2 here ('22 ALW, '23 Vanderbilt)..

Most Likely: #3 Elite Power 1-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Gunite 6-5 WON ($4.6o)
Exotics Use: #1 High Oak 30-1 3rd

P4 Grid:

4: 1-9 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
6: 1-4-6-9 (A), - (B), 2-8-10 (C)
7: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (A-A-C-A): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (2-8-10 in 6th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (1-4-9-2) Paid $587.00 (A-A-A-A)

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (Must Pay P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Wild, wide open affair..

Most Likely: #6 Highly Flammable 9-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Immortalization SCR
Next Best: #13 Souper Quest 3-1 WON ($4.30)
Exotics Use: #2 Monet Never 6-1 10th

9th: 39th Allen Jerkens (G1), 3yo, 7f (Traditional Late P5, P3, DD)

There's no guarantee that New York Thunder runs back to his eye-popping Amsterdam, but note it was his first actual dirt try and he may be that good. A repeat makes him a very likely winner. The Baffert pair are serious horses toting quality resumes and the worktab notes from DRF's Toby Turrell support their cases here. Verifying offers the potent turn back angle and has been sparkling in the morning over the Oklahoma surface. Remember that Drew's Gold was a terrific 2nd to Arabian Lion in the Woody Stephens (106 Beyer) and returns to dirt after the turf sprint foray 2 weeks ago..

Most Likely: #5 New York Thunder 5-2 DNF
Next Best: #6 Arabian Lion 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Fort Bragg 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Verifying 4-1 2nd

10th: 45th Ballerina (G1), F&M3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Echo Zulu has come back as a devastating 4yo and is an even bigger talent than is being acknowledged. Caramel Swirl being tabbed as price to use, but consider Dr B who may be twice her number, is on a par with her and in receipt of 3# while getting Rosario who should make one run with her..

Most Likely: #6 Echo Zulu 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #4 Dr B 15-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Matareya 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Goodnight Olive 9-5 2nd

11th: 49th Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-Inner (P3, DD)

Thoroughly impossible edition of this race, but here's a notion: Pioneering Spirit (8-1) is a new edition of the Voodoo Song Linda Rice authored 6 years when ripping off 4 wins at the meet culminating with the Saranac. Who's so scary here that says he can't continue ascendancy? Has closed into slow paces and now gets Irad. We've all bet on worse 8-1 shots in spopts like this..

Best Value: #5 PIONEERING SPIRIT 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Soldier Rising 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Stone Age 6-5 5th
Super Add: #4 Daunt 20-1 4th

12th: 154th Travers (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD)

As the week has gone on, it's feels more likely that Arcangelo wins today, but the Derby winner is a square price and very viable off the better-than-anticipated Haskell effort. If you're a Thoro-Graph user (and signed up for the free sheet mailings in coordination with our Thursday Win Using Thoro-Graph segments with Jeff Franklin), you'll note that Mage got back to his 1st Saturday in May top at Monmouth. As it happens, that sheet pattern is a frequent occurrence (Franklin calls it the triangle) and was on display last Saturday in Randomized going into the Alabama. Mage has the fastest figs on the sheets, as did Randomized, and will be the 3rd choice. On top of the other considerations, he ends up landing Prat who has distinguished himself all meet long. After the top pair, Forte deserves respect and Disarm looks to be coming up to a plus effort that earns a share. National Treasure is likely better now than in the spring and will almost certainly lead them on to the backstretch. Scotland is a fresh face with upside and wants to be prominent. Tapit Trice has been in and out, but as Nick Tammaro pointed out Friday on Wknd Prvw, stands to benefit from the services of Jose Ortiz. A terrific Travers on tap where no one would shock and literally every Super combination is possible..

Best Value: #4 Mage 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Arcangelo 5-2 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Forte 7-5 4th
Super Add: #6 Disarm 8-1 3rd

Must Pay P5 Grid:

8: 6-9 (A), 12-13 (B), - (C)
9: 4-5-6 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x1x3x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

2-Day, Retail Only, .20 Must Pay Travers Weekend P6 Grid:

FRI 9: 1-3-5-6
SAT 7: 2-3
SAT 9: 5
SAT 10: 6
SAT 11: 1-2/SCR-3-4-5-6-7
SAT 12: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7

.20 Play: 4x2x1x1x7x7 = 392 x .20 = $78.40

13th: MSW, 3+, 1m-OFF

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Right to Win SCR
Best Value: #8 Torigo SCR
Next Best: #2 Fly Right SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Conversing SCR

Good luck!
Steve