8/23: SAR Race 1 Jonathan Sheppard Steeplechase Handicap

[Flatterer]

The Jonathan Sheppard Grade 1 Steeplechase Handicap is the premier race of the meet and goes 2 ⅜ miles around 5 turns over 9 jumps with a 5 furlong flat run after the last fence.

This edition is basically a glorified novice race since #5 Noah And The Ark is the only grade 1 winner. As a result, #5 Noah And The Ark carries 158 pound highweight and the other runners get a weight assignment based on their current rating. Snap Decision’s win last year carrying 164 pounds was the exception and not the rule since light weights traditionally do well.

The light weight runners carrying 144 pounds are #2 Jimmy P and #6 Merry Maker. #2 Jimmy P for trainer Keri Brion ran a powerful race at Nashville, has an 85 flat track Beyer, will easily get the distance and has good closing speed. #6 Merry Maker ran well in Virginia, gets a 6 pound weight break from morning line favorite #9 McTigue after giving that runner 6 pounds in the Kiser, resulting in a big 12 pound weight swing.

#5 Noah And The Ark was unfocused and wild in the paddock and warm up before the Smithwick and ran like a distracted horse finishing 4th. He easily gets lit up and with a bigger crowd today, check his behavior in the saddling ring and warm up before making any wagers.

Winners over the course include #1 L’Imperator, #9 McTigue and #4 Theocrat. #1 L’Imperator finished strong in his Saratoga allowance win and has the best flat track Beyer with 100. #9 McTigue was all out to win the Kiser, picks up 3 pounds off that victory, and has a 100 Timeform flat track speed figure. #4 Theocrat makes his 2023 debut, has run well off the shelf in the past, won the Walsh stakes last year at the same distance and has been training well at Fair Hill for trainer Brion.

#3 Awakened was closing strong against #9 McTigue in the Kiser and gets a 4 pound weight break from #9 McTigue carrying 146 after giving #9 McTigue 6 pounds in the Kiser.

#7 Redicean makes his swan song appearance at Saratoga and will be up the track. #8 West Newton and #10 Caramelised will set a strong early pace and crash and burn like they did in the Smithwick and Kiser.

This is a very competitive race. If there is no early pace set by #8 West Newton and #10 Caramelized, whoever saves ground will run well as the blob of horses circles the track. A paceless race should not occur in a 10 horse field, but stranger things have happened. A few years ago at Foxfield, the runners did not move for almost 45 seconds after the flag dropped.

#9 McTigue will have to improve off his last effort because of the dramatic change in weight for his opponents. #1 L’Imperator did not beat much in his allowance win but has the best flat track speed in the race. The light weights #2 Jimmy P and #6 Merry Maker will have their strong closing speed enhanced carrying less weight and if #4 Theocrat is 100% he will be tough fresh with a course and distance win.

Selection:

A) 2 (2nd) - 6 (4th)-4

B) 1-9 (3rd) - 3 WON $14.40

Good luck at the races!