5/16 (PIM): Preakness (G1); Dixie (G2); Gallorette (G3), et al..

[slotdirt]

This has to be the first time in like six years that some combination of Better Talk Now, Artie Schiller, and Dreadnaught aren't in the race.

[NoLuvForPletch]

NO.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I like Big Drama as a horse, but the more I hear people are onto him, the more underlay-like he becomes.

What type of trip does everyone expect he sits?

If he goes to the front, which is very likely, Rachel Alexandra is not going to be far behind. And provided she runs her race, she'll move towards him on the far turn. So can Big Drama, with one sprint race under his belt this year, really go 9.5 furlongs on the lead, fend off Rachel Alexandra and anyone else who might come late?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

NO.

I think it's a tall order and a rough bet at anything less than ... 15-1 at least?

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think it's a tall order and a rough bet at anything less than ... 15-1 at least?

I think people are looking to beat the girl and with the exception of FF, who had an excuse, it's hard to support the others coming out of the KD. He's going to take all the wise guy cash IMO and will be an underlay...

[Derby73]

Kentucky Derby Winner-Preakness Finish

1997: Silver Charm- 1
1998: Real Quiet- 1
1999: Charismatic-1
2000: FuPeg-2 (Beaten by Red Bullet, DNR in Derby)
2001: Monarchos-6 (the only cluncker on the list, Point Given,#5 in Derby)
2002: War Emblem-1
2003: Funny Cide-1
2004: Smarty Jones-1
2005 Giacomo-3
2006: Barbaro- DNF (likely #1)
2007: Street Sense-2 (Curlin,#3 in Derby)
2008: Big Brown-1

Hell, he could finish way back, but how can you throw out MTB in tri boxes?

[booner]

Hard to take Rachel Alexandra at the short price. She has the looks, and on paper should run circles around these. I won't put her on top; instead, I'll use 2 others with her.

I like Friesian Fire today. He did have an excuse last time (the hoof thing), and I like it that it's his 2nd start off that long layoff coming into the Derby. I just feel he is ripe for a big effort.

Take The Points is really intriging to me. He has been training well and is returning to dirt. The two races out west were not that bad. He will be my long shot play.

Probably box these 3 and be done with it. I won't get to see the race until late tonight. And if anyone at this reception I'm going to tells me who wins, I will punch them squarely in the face!!!

Good luck to all today and enjoy the races!!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by booner

Hard to take Rachel Alexandra at the short price. She has the looks, and on paper should run circles around these. I won't put her on top; instead, I'll use 2 others with her.

I like Friesian Fire today. He did have an excuse last time (the hoof thing), and I like it that it's his 2nd start off that long layoff coming into the Derby. I just feel he is ripe for a big effort.

Take The Points is really intriging to me. He has been training well and is returning to dirt. The two races out west were not that bad. He will be my long shot play.

Probably box these 3 and be done with it. I won't get to see the race until late tonight. And if anyone at this reception I'm going to tells me who wins, I will punch them squarely in the face!!!

Good luck to all today and enjoy the races!!

i think that injury was drastically overstated by jones in the heat of the moment after coming in next to last. there's no way that injury was that serious with him losing no training time, and making a return in two weeks. so, just how good an excuse for his incredibly awful performance can that be?

[moses]

Originally Posted by Derby73

Kentucky Derby Winner-Preakness Finish

1997: Silver Charm- 1
1998: Real Quiet- 1
1999: Charismatic-1
2000: FuPeg-2 (Beaten by Red Bullet, DNR in Derby)
2001: Monarchos-6 (the only cluncker on the list, Point Given,#5 in Derby)
2002: War Emblem-1
2003: Funny Cide-1
2004: Smarty Jones-1
2005 Giacomo-3
2006: Barbaro- DNF (likely #1)
2007: Street Sense-2 (Curlin,#3 in Derby)
2008: Big Brown-1

Hell, he could finish way back, but how can you throw out MTB in tri boxes?

I don't know the numbers but how many of those derby winners were 50-1 shots that seemingly came out of nowhere?

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I like Big Drama as a horse, but the more I hear people are onto him, the more underlay-like he becomes.

What type of trip does everyone expect he sits?

If he goes to the front, which is very likely, Rachel Alexandra is not going to be far behind. And provided she runs her race, she'll move towards him on the far turn. So can Big Drama, with one sprint race under his belt this year, really go 9.5 furlongs on the lead, fend off Rachel Alexandra and anyone else who might come late?

He sure could tire her out though,setting up the race for a Closer!! MTB???

[moses]

Originally Posted by Left Bank

He sure could tire her out though,setting up the race for a Closer!! MTB???

Honestly, I'd love to see that because I think MTB has a shot at the Belmont if he can win this.

The thing is, I really don't think MTB is going to win this, but maybe...maybe.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Take the Points is as likely to hit the board as somebody like Papa Clem or Mine that Bird, but Take the Points will be a much better price than those two.

Or maybe not....

[Sightseek]

Big Drama got cast in his stall this morning - still running as it was minor.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...-preakness-day

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by moses

I don't know the numbers but how many of those derby winners were 50-1 shots that seemingly came out of nowhere?

Giacomo certainly came out of nowhere and Charismatic and War Emblem were big prices too. I actually like Mine That Bird today. I know the wedding/funeral rule, but considering the field, I think 6-1 or so is still good value.

Oh and I don't understand saying Barbaro would've won the Preakness had he not broken down. Bernardini was great that day. I think it's far from "likely" that Barbaro would've beaten him.

[Derby73]

Yep, Charismatic was over 30-1 and War Emblem was over 20. Giacomo was 50-1 and thanks to my friend of 25+ years Steve Byk, I actually got to make money on that one.

And Barbaro may not have beaten Bernardini, very true. In fact, Steve helped out that year, too, as I had a play on Bernardini which made up for losing the tribox with Barbaro.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Some early race thoughts...

R3 MSW: like the #4 Winter Walk, #6 Wedding Scramble, and #3 Hot Bullet first turf, all at a price. First two bred for the lawn, the 4 showed some ability in both his runs on the dirt but has low key connections so the price should hold, and the 6 showed absolutely nothing in his debut but is bred for the lawn top and bottom (although Blushing John was good on both surfaces- won a Group 1 in France as well as the Hollywood Gold Cup among other races) and is sent out by a trainer who knows something or two about winning races in MD. I had no idea Cetewayo was even a sire, he's had so few starters (4, with 1 winner), but he was a damn good turfer. Of the probable favorites, #5 Stonestreet Star is already 0-8 and failed 3 times at 8/5 or less, including a terrible run at AC where the MSW competition is pretty weak, and Mythical Hero who made a nice run to be 2nd into a slow pace but only beat the #2 Pocket Patch by a half length when he was 23-1 off getting beat 3 straight times in $25k MCL's at Philly.

R4 Schafer Hcp G3: No Advantage will probably be overlooked in here, but he got a horrible ride in the CT Classic. Didn't save any ground around the turns, ran up on heels a couple times, yet still managed to only get beat 7 lengths at 51-1 (in a photo with Commentator for 4th.) Real Merchant and Cave's Valley come out of a fast race at Belmont, but how good is that really? He was soundly beaten in that awful Excelsior with no excuse, and Cave's Valley looks better around one turn than two, I think it's between the two coming out of the CT Classic.

Yessir!

[Bobby Fischer]

TEEF

[eajinabi]

RA is the horse to beat but I am really liking TAKE THE POINTS in this one. His last two can be said that he is not a synthetic horse and his dirt win was pretty good. His works since his last race looks sharp and blinkers probably will help him. At 30-1 m/l looks good to fill the Exacta.

$30 Ex Box RA with TAKE THE POINTS

$50 w/p Take The Points

[Bobby Fischer]

if I can get Ah Day or Ravalo here, my day gets a whole lot better

[Bobby Fischer]

come on no objection

[Suffolk Shippers]

Running out of chances for prices in the P4.