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  #41  
Old 05-03-2012, 02:37 PM
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my miss storm cat my miss storm cat is offline
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post

11th (6:24) Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1)


7 7 Rousing Sermon Lezcano J Hollendorfer Jerry 126 LA 50-1


It's probably not a good sign that my top two are both at 50/1 in the morning line (Liaison is my other but that post position...)...

I'm not using Bode anywhere and although I really do like Gemologist have to use him along with Hansen, I'll Have Another, Union Rags and Went the Day Well underneath.

I lost Prospective, Sabrecat and Daddy Nose Best narrowing it down and Went the Day Well will be the next to cut if need be.

I am still using Liaison and in the top spot (in a couople of plays) but am feeling more confident about RS now that post postions have been drawn.
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  #42  
Old 05-03-2012, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by outofthebox View Post
I just pray there is not another Aikenite on the card to spoil all my pick 3 and 4 tickets this year.....
Romans was my daddy on the two big days at CD last year.

Sassy Image spoiled an otherwise lucky day for me in the '11 Derby.

Court Vision's win in the 2011 Breeders Cup Mile spoiled the fact that I had shrewdly spent a few hundred dollars keying Gio Point and Goldikova underneath in superfectas and spreading with ALL's in the other slots, except thorwing out only Court Vision entirely on the win end.
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  #43  
Old 05-03-2012, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
Romans was my daddy on the two big days at CD last year.

Sassy Image spoiled an otherwise lucky day for me in the '11 Derby.

Court Vision's win in the 2011 Breeders Cup Mile spoiled the fact that I had shrewdly spent a few hundred dollars keying Gio Point and Goldikova underneath in superfectas and spreading with ALL's in the other slots, except thorwing out only Court Vision entirely on the win end.
Just thinking of that race makes me nauseous.
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  #44  
Old 05-03-2012, 02:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
Romans was my daddy on the two big days at CD last year.

Sassy Image spoiled an otherwise lucky day for me in the '11 Derby.

Court Vision's win in the 2011 Breeders Cup Mile spoiled the fact that I had shrewdly spent a few hundred dollars keying Gio Point and Goldikova underneath in superfectas and spreading with ALL's in the other slots, except thorwing out only Court Vision entirely on the win end.
It amazes me how many times I get beat by an impossible horse when I do that.
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  #45  
Old 05-03-2012, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by MaTH716 View Post
Just thinking of that race makes me nauseous.
Same probably goes for Rick Dutrow Jr. and IEAH
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  #46  
Old 05-03-2012, 04:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
If anyone is interested, my Kentucky Derby column and picks can be found at the following link:

http://www.goerie.com/article/201205...-has-red-flags
I am boxing your picks and Serling's in a .10 super--I will be farting through silk by Saturday night.

Ignore DrugS at your peril, people.
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  #47  
Old 05-03-2012, 04:52 PM
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I'm not sure you'll be able to get down on a 10-cent superfecta in the Derby.

I think the minimum is $1 all day long.

I may follow your lead and bring a jar of chocolate covered nuts to the track with me. It's going to be a long day Saturday.
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  #48  
Old 05-03-2012, 05:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
I'm not sure you'll be able to get down on a 10-cent superfecta in the Derby.

I think the minimum is $1 all day long.

I may follow your lead and bring a jar of chocolate covered nuts to the track with me. It's going to be a long day Saturday.
Then I will do a $1 Matt box tri. He liked to eat nuts, too.
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  #49  
Old 05-03-2012, 05:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by outofthebox View Post
I just pray there is not another Aikenite on the card to spoil all my pick 3 and 4 tickets this year.....
Seconded. Pretty much everyone I know had Apriority but not Aikenite.
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  #50  
Old 05-03-2012, 06:02 PM
XIIPointStables XIIPointStables is offline
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Good luck everybody....

Is there any place to watch the works from the week online?

the Works was a staple for me, but seems they bailed on it. Thanks.
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  #51  
Old 05-03-2012, 06:32 PM
tywizard tywizard is offline
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I can't get PPs from XB yet....Need to look at the Woodford for tomorrow's pick 3. Is there a link by chance?
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  #52  
Old 05-03-2012, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by tywizard View Post
I can't get PPs from XB yet....Need to look at the Woodford for tomorrow's pick 3. Is there a link by chance?
Here ya go. http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

you can page down and get all the races he's got anything entered in.
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  #53  
Old 05-03-2012, 07:14 PM
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doug, didn't see anything negative in your comments on gemologist. why is he not one of the top four for you?
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  #54  
Old 05-03-2012, 08:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig View Post
doug, didn't see anything negative in your comments on gemologist. why is he not one of the top four for you?
I basically just prefer other horses a little more.

Pletcher horses always run gangbusters at the start of the new calender year ... they normally peak within the first 3 starts of the season -- and often have peaked by the second start.

Gemologist is a nice horse -- and I like that he's only had 2 races this year -- but he will need further improvment and from a bettting value standpoint...this is the time of the year when it's becoming safest to play against Pletcher horses.
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  #55  
Old 05-03-2012, 09:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord View Post
I basically just prefer other horses a little more.

Pletcher horses always run gangbusters at the start of the new calender year ... they normally peak within the first 3 starts of the season -- and often have peaked by the second start.

Gemologist is a nice horse -- and I like that he's only had 2 races this year -- but he will need further improvment and from a bettting value standpoint...this is the time of the year when it's becoming safest to play against Pletcher horses.

that is my only knock on the horse. but that's a pretty big knock i think. thanks.
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  #56  
Old 05-03-2012, 10:35 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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A la Drugs, if anyone's interested, Derby analysis here: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...eat-sheet.html

and here (with undercard): http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...-analysis.html
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  #57  
Old 05-03-2012, 10:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 View Post
A la Drugs, if anyone's interested, Derby analysis here: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...eat-sheet.html

and here (with undercard): http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...-analysis.html
Read the Oaks write-up earlier. Good stuff and good luck at the "windows" this wkend.
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  #58  
Old 05-04-2012, 08:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315 View Post
A la Drugs, if anyone's interested, Derby analysis here: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...eat-sheet.html

and here (with undercard): http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...-analysis.html
Respect the pick, and you seem to have put a lot of thought into it. Takes some nads to go out on a limb on a 50-1 shot.
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  #59  
Old 05-04-2012, 08:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt View Post
Respect the pick, and you seem to have put a lot of thought into it. Takes some nads to go out on a limb on a 50-1 shot.


Good stuff Bri, good luck!
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  #60  
Old 05-04-2012, 08:49 AM
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I'm in the Done Talking camp as well. I still believe that this race is going to set up for an off-the-pace type, and as hockey noted in his TDN comments, the horse has the right running style and experience navigating a large field to thrive in that kind of race. The question will be whether he's the right off-the-pace type.
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