Weekend Stakes Beyers

[Kasept]

OP Arkansas Derby (G1): Bodemeister 108 (Empire Maker) B. Baffert/M. Smith
OP Apple Blossom H (G1): Plum Pretty 103 (Medaglia d'Oro) B. Baffert/R. Bejarano
OP Oaklawn H (G2): Alternation 97 (Distorted Humor) D. Von Hemel/L. Quinonez
OP Count Fleet H (G3): Outta Tune 94 (Jump Start) C. Richard/T. Thompson
OP Fantasy S (G2): Mamma Kimbo 94 (Discreet Cat) B. Baffert/M. Smith
OP Red Bud S: Another World 80 (Maria's Mon) D. Von Hemel/M. Berry
OP Carousel S: Beat the Blues 91 (Great Pyramid-IRE) W. Calhoun/M. Mena
OP Instant Racing S: Glinda the Good 72 (Hard Spun) S. Asmussen/C. Nakatani
OP Northern Spur S: Master Rick 97 (Master Command) S. Asmussen/C. Nakatani

KEE Blue Grass S (G1): Dullahan 98 (Even the Score) D. Romans/K. Desormeaux
KEE Jenny Wiley S (G1): Daisy Devine 91 (Kafwain) A. McKeever/J. Graham
KEE Maker's 46 Mile S (G1): Data Link 99 (War Front) C. McGaughey/A. Solis
KEE Vinery Madison S (G1): Groupie Doll 100 (Bowman's Band) W. Bradley/R. Maragh
KEE Commonwealth S (G2): Lonesome Street 96 (Broken Vow) M. Maker/J. Rosario
KEE Shakertown S (G3): Perfect Officer 96 (Officer) A. Dutrow/J. Castellano

CT Charles Town Classic S (G2): Caixa Eletronica 101 (Arromanches) T. Pletcher/J. Castellano
CT Hilton Memorial S: Flashy Dresser 89 (Flashy Bull) F. Seitz/J. Leparoux
CT Sugar Maple S: Magical Feeling 89 (Empire Maker) A. Iwinski/R. Alvarado
CT Confucius Say S: Russell Road 87 (Wheaton) J. Casey/L. Perez
CT Original Gold S: Silver Heart 69 (Lion Hearted) G. Capuano/T. Dunkelberger
CT Webb Snyder: Immortal Eyes 86 (Greatness) D. Dilodovico/T. Dunkelberger

AQU Distaff H (G2): It's Tricky 96 (Mineshaft) K. McLaughlin/E. Castro
AQU Videogenic S: My Redbyrd 81 (Royal Academy) J. Terranova/A. Solis
AQU Three Coins Up S: Mahubo-SAF 89 (National Emblem-SAF) K. McLaughlin/R. Napravnik

WO Star Shoot S: Tu Endie Wei 87 (Johar) R. Baker/J. McAleney

CRC Calder Derby (Off/Turf): Good Morning Diva - (Lion Heart) J. Braddy/F. Jara

SA Las Cienegas H (Off/Turf): Mizdirection - (Mizzen Mast) M. Puype/D. Flores

PRX Foxy J. G. S: Darn That Raven 80 (Dance With Ravens) G. Preciado/K. Carmouche
PRX Lyman H: Golddigger's Boy 89 (Jump Start) R. Preciado/S. Elliott

PIM Primonetta S: Bold Affair - (Two Punch) H. Wolfendale/A. Castellano

[Kasept]

Dullahan 98

[blackthroatedwind]

The Oaklawn Handicap and Arkansas Derby figs are being adjusted.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The Oaklawn Handicap and Arkansas Derby figs are being adjusted.

It looks like they were adjusted before they were released the first time.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

It looks like they were adjusted before they were released the first time.

Can you imagine if you were half as clever as you think you are?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Can you imagine if you were half as clever as you think you are?

I'm not clever enough to imagine anything, much less my own level of cleverness. So, no. I can't.

[Calzone Lord]

Whatever they decide on ... Bodemeister's improvement will look minor compared to Blueskiesnrainbow's last week.



Obviously a lot of similiarites with both Blueskies and Bode

* First time Blinkers Off for Baffert ... a stat Baffert is like 40% with an ROI hovering around $3.00

* Deneied the early lead last start -- loose on the lead and able to settle better without blinkers.

* Both have big route pedigree.

Blueskies got absolutely pissed on by stablemate Fed Biz in an alw race.

[Kasept]

Alternation 97

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Alternation 97

Which means Bodemeister will be 108.

[ADJMK]

So after a smashing performance like that does that make him a cinch for the Derby just like Bellamy Road was?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

So after a smashing performance like that does that make him a cinch for the Derby just like Bellamy Road was?

I don't think they are all that similar at all.

[Calzone Lord]

Highest last out Beyer entering the Kentucky Derby:

2012: Bodemeister
2011: Archarcharch
2010: Devil May Care - Sidney's Candy (tie) <Eskendreya injured>
2009: Dunkirk <I Want Revenge SCR> and <Quality Road injured>
2008: Big Brown ($6.80)
2007: Curlin
2006: Sinister Minister
2005: Bellamy Road
2004: The Cliff's Edge
2003: Empire Maker
2002: War Emblem ($43.00)
2001: Millennium Wind
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus ($7.20)
1999: Charismatic ($64.60) - General Challenge (tie)
1998: Indian Charlie
1997: Silver Charm ($10.00) - Free House (tie)
1996: Skip Away
1995: Serena's Song
1994: Holy Bull
1993: Rockamundo
1992: Pine Bluff - Lil E Tee ($35.60) (tie)

Top last-out figure Derby horses who entered the race with less than five career starts:

Big Brown (3)
Curlin (3)
Dunkirk (3) <I Want Revenge SCR> and <Quality Road injured>
Bodemeister (4)
Indian Charlie (4)

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Highest last out Beyer entering the Kentucky Derby:

2012: Bodemeister
2011: Archarcharch
2010: Devil May Care - Sidney's Candy (tie) <Eskendreya injured>
2009: Dunkirk <I Want Revenge SCR> and <Quality Road injured>
2008: Big Brown ($6.80)
2007: Curlin
2006: Sinister Minister
2005: Bellamy Road
2004: The Cliff's Edge
2003: Empire Maker
2002: War Emblem ($43.00)
2001: Millennium Wind
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus ($7.20)
1999: Charismatic ($64.60) - General Challenge (tie)
1998: Indian Charlie
1997: Silver Charm ($10.00) - Free House (tie)
1996: Skip Away
1995: Serena's Song
1994: Holy Bull
1993: Rockamundo
1992: Pine Bluff - Lil E Tee ($35.60) (tie)

Top last-out figure Derby horses who entered the race with less than five career starts:

Big Brown (3)
Curlin (3)
Dunkirk (3) <I Want Revenge SCR> and <Quality Road injured>
Bodemeister (4)
Indian Charlie (4)

So for 20 years since Beyer went mainstream, if you take 20 last out highest + 3 ties, 23 horses x $2 = $46 invested and 6 winners with a return of $167. Who says Beyers aren't the way to go?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

So for 20 years since Beyer went mainstream, if you take 20 last out highest + 3 ties, 23 horses x $2 = $46 invested and 6 winners with a return of $167. Who says Beyers aren't the way to go?

The extremely profitable success of a last-out top figure horses in the Derby is skewed because of War Emblem and Charismatic...both were big upset winners of super-fast run minor preps in their final Derby start.

War Emblem freaked in the Illi Derby and Charismatic freaked in the Lexington...both were ignored in the Derby betting because they looked like one-race wonders and because the one big race was in a minor Derby prep.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The extremely profitable success of a last-out top figure horses in the Derby is skewed because of War Emblem and Charismatic...both were big upset winners of super-fast run minor preps in their final Derby start.

War Emblem freaked in the Illi Derby and Charismatic freaked in the Lexington...both were ignored in the Derby betting because they looked like one-race wonders and because the one big race was in a minor Derby prep.

Oh I get that, but even if you throw them both out, it's profitable. Throw one out and you more than double your money. Just making the point that in the toughest race in the world to handicap, don't forget to use the tool many experienced handicappers are dismissing as being an overused factor. If you are forced to bet Sinister Minister, Devil May Care, and Rockamundo, you get to include the War Emblem's and Charismatic.

Disregarding odds, you have a wildly positive impact value. Without taking the time to look it up, we're probably talking 350 starters and 20 winners. 23 top Beyers gets 6 wins. The other 325+ get 14 wins.

Now the downside is only one of the last 10, and that was the shortest priced one of the set.

[ADJMK]

So I guess Bode is the bet if he is 15-1 or higher

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

So I guess Bode is the bet if he is 15-1 or higher

How is he higher then 5-1, 7-1 at max?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

How is he higher then 5-1, 7-1 at max?

Agree he will be favorite baring a set back

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

How is he higher then 5-1, 7-1 at max?

cmon guys I was being sarcastic based on the fact that 3 of the 6 highest Beyer winner were over 15-1. Of course you are never going to see those odds.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

cmon guys I was being sarcastic based on the fact that 3 of the 6 highest Beyer winner were over 15-1. Of course you are never going to see those odds.

I get it now....