The Weak and Confused: Charlatan Didn’t Win a Bloated Race in Saudi Arabia

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

To answer the questions, no I don't think he'll improve going two turns and no, I don't expect him to improve going 10f. But I expect very few horses of today's stakes horses to be better going longer than shorter.

Hence the idiocy of comparing such horses to Seattle Slew, a horse with question marks on both pedigree and running style in terms of his ability to stay a distance who shattered those reservations on the racetrack time and time again (not just in slanted puff pieces and hypotheticals).

When Charlatan outruns Tizamagician in the Pacific Classic in 2:02 and change are you gonna be moved to mention him in the same breath as such a horse?

Never mind Seattle Slew, Charlatan has a long way to go to emulate a horse like Rail Trip...

I'm sure you've heard the old one about the two guys being chased by a bear and the first guy says to the other "you can't outrun a bear". To which the second guy says "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just need to beat you." I bring this up to say that if Charlatan was facing top horses going two turns or 10f, I might share your doubts about how well he'd perform. But in the absence of any horses that I look at and think they are good horses, it increases my optimism about Charlatan. He doesn't have to be a great horse, he just has to be faster than the other horses against him.

You like to narrow the argument of what makes a great horse to a single trait, usually brilliance.

However, great racehorses are more than just fast early. They are sound, competitive, consistent, versatile, display stamina, overcome adversity, show courage, and have the capacity to handle multiple starts.

The irony is when a brilliant horse that is simply faster than all others gets beat, that's when suddenly all those other qualities and factors become relevant.

Oh...he had to run fast early.

Oh..he wasn't allowed to have a clear lead.

Oh...the stretch is so long.

Oh...the track was so tiring.

Oh...the rail was so dead.

Oh...there are only 28 days between this race and the next obvious target.

Oh...he couldn't get whipped the right number of times.

Oh...he couldn't have his joints injected closer than 18 days before the race.

To this point, I see no other horses that I would pick against him with any confidence, with Mishriff being the obvious exception. You mentioned Code of Honor, Express Train, Performer, Mystic Guide, Silver State, The Sound, and Maxfield. The only horse among those that I see anywhere close to as talented as Charlatan is Maxfield and again, he's under the same red flag health wise as Charlatan is, maybe even a bigger one. At this point, I'm taking Charlatan against any of them going any distance.

That's another limitation of your argument. Maybe you have become numbed by the drop off in quality racing over the past few decades, but believe it or not, all races are not 2-horse races no matter how the hack turf writers frame the pre-race hype. That's the overarching lesson from the Saudi Cup.

Charlatan might beat all those easily in separate match races but nothing from his loss on Saturday suggests that he will fend off multiple challenges from even lesser horses over a meaningful distance of ground.

He was able to put away a horse that folds like a cheap suit, blew a 2-length lead in the stretch, and offered little resistance when headed at the 1/16th pole.

Why any of that rouses confidence in his ability to go a classic distance never mind stirs memories of great horses in gallant displays of defeat is beyond me.

Hopefully, we get the chance to see it play out on the track although the chances of that aren't very high.

If not, then the argument will become "if a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

However, because of all the misplaced and/or scheming hype attached to this horse, one question has already been answered (and it won't matter which of the two guys the bear ends up eating):

Question: Will Charlatan be considered a major stallion prospect despite accomplishing very little?

Answer: Does a bear sh!t in the woods?