Trying To Make Money On Big Brown Today...

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

No, and no. Not even a close call, IMO. And further, it is unlikely that either Big Brown or Curlin will do enough before retiring to be "great" in the sense that Cannon Shell is talking about. There's very little chance of seeing another horse like the true greats unless it's a gelding.

Roller Doc, I suggest you spend some time at YouTube and search for Dr. Fager races. (after reading at least the Wikipedia entry.)

--Dunbar

Thank you for the suggestion.......It is on my to do list.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

And what you say seems to be the sentiment of many. Would you be willing to say that on any given race, anything is possible (by any horse)?

I just think all of Big Brown's wins were impressive. I wish we really knew what happened at The Belmont? The Haskell was a comeback race for Big Brown and an impressive final furlong. He showed something he never had to before.

Alfleet Alex is my favorite horse of all time. But who did he really beat in the Preakness and Belmont other than Giacomo (a 50-1 KD winner). And don't say Scrappy T Yet most agree that Alex was a great horse. This is one example of why I don't buy into the lousy competition vs. Big Brown argument.

most?! most agree that alex was great? his recovery and win in the preakness was amazing, but he is not, and was not a great horse.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

It sounds like a clever retort. Jokes on me because I don't know who Dr. Fager is. Will you complete the joke for my purpose?

this post explains a lot. a ton.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

You dont know who Dr Fager is but you can determine the greatness of a horse? Who did you measure him against? Cat Thief?

war emblem. or maybe monarchos.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

Yes I do take level of competition into consideration. I am just getting frustrated that so many of you dilute the accomplishments of Big Brown because of the dismay you all have for his connections (which I am disappointed as well). The Jackson's, Michael Matz, and Edgar Prado they sure are not.

Take them out of the equation and I think we have had a really talented 3 year old to be treated to this year in Big Brown. If the BCC were to be held today, you can take to the bank that I will bet the $400.00 plus that I am up on betting Big Brown this year TO WIN and beat old man Curlin. Uh oh....I know I am really going to get slammed for that one. Just kidding about Curlin.

dude, you have no idea what the level of competition is-especially since you concede you've never heard of dr fager, one of the greatest horses of all time. not of the past couple of years, of ALL TIME. big brown isn't even a horse compared to dr fager. he doesn't belong in the same breath, let alone the same BREED!
big brown wouldn't be any faster if mother theresa owned him and the pope rode him. he's an ordinary horse, but he's better than his peers. that doesn't make him great.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

you're not the only one. he was good, much better than Big Brown imo.

i agree. if bernardini got 'exposed' in the bcc, then how could anyone then make the case that invasor was a very good horse?! after all, he only won by a length.
people tend to belittle competition, and then think it helps make the case that their horse is somehow so good, since he beat such bad horses. cracks me up.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

He did run very well. He just didn't run as well as he did in the Preakness.

sure he did. he just had a faster competitor that day than in the preakness.

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by Danzig

most?! most agree that alex was great? his recovery and win in the preakness was amazing, but he is not, and was not a great horse.

OK Danzig, I will yield to your description that Afleet Alex's win and recovery in the Preakness was "amazing" or their thesaurus meanings like
astonishing, astounding, fantastic, fantastical, incredible, marvelous, miraculous, phenomenal, prodigious, stupendous, unbelievable, wonderful, wondrous

So I stand corrected.......he was not great. I guess his Belmont romp and Kentucky Derby just miss were just as mediocre.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

Thank you for the suggestion.......It is on my to do list.

you also need to buy bloodhorses top 100 of the 20th century.

thoroughbred champions was a site that had bio's of some of the greats from the past, not sure tho if it's still active.

but at least check out dr. fager's mile race in which he set the world record (still stands today) carrying well over 130 lbs, something unheard of in north america these days. and he did it well within himself, the jock sitting chilly the whole way.
then there's his one grass race, he detested the surface. got passed and battled back several times, and managed to win even tho he was slipping and sliding, spinning his wheels...

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by Danzig

dude, you have no idea what the level of competition is-especially since you concede you've never heard of dr fager, one of the greatest horses of all time. not of the past couple of years, of ALL TIME. big brown isn't even a horse compared to dr fager. he doesn't belong in the same breath, let alone the same BREED!
big brown wouldn't be any faster if mother theresa owned him and the pope rode him. he's an ordinary horse, but he's better than his peers. that doesn't make him great.

Who said Big Brown compares to Dr. Fager? Not me. And while me not knowing Dr. Fager explains a lot, there is no way a flunkie like me will agree that Big Brown is an "ordinary" horse. And as much as you don't want to associate Big Brown with any history, unfortunately you can't.

Here's a few....Winning Kentucky Derby with fewest starts in the modern era. Winning from Post 20 vs. 19 others since early 1900s. Faced the most opponents in the the triple crown races. As a sidenote, he won FL from the outside.........All this is not ordinary. Plus he has done all of this with very unpopular connections.

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by Danzig

you also need to buy bloodhorses top 100 of the 20th century.

thoroughbred champions was a site that had bio's of some of the greats from the past, not sure tho if it's still active.

but at least check out dr. fager's mile race in which he set the world record (still stands today) carrying well over 130 lbs, something unheard of in north america these days. and he did it well within himself, the jock sitting chilly the whole way.
then there's his one grass race, he detested the surface. got passed and battled back several times, and managed to win even tho he was slipping and sliding, spinning his wheels...

Thank you for the suggestions and I will check them out. Looks liike I am going to be one busy guy.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

OK Danzig, I will yield to your description that Afleet Alex's win and recovery in the Preakness was "amazing" or their thesaurus meanings like
astonishing, astounding, fantastic, fantastical, incredible, marvelous, miraculous, phenomenal, prodigious, stupendous, unbelievable, wonderful, wondrous

So I stand corrected.......he was not great. I guess his Belmont romp and Kentucky Derby just miss were just as mediocre.

how is saying a horse is not great saying a horse is mediocre? he may have been the best that year in that crop, doesn't mean he was great.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

Who said Big Brown compares to Dr. Fager? Not me. And while me not knowing Dr. Fager explains a lot, there is no way a flunkie like me will agree that Big Brown is an "ordinary" horse. And as much as you don't want to associate Big Brown with any history, unfortunately you can't.

Here's a few....Winning Kentucky Derby with fewest starts in the modern era. Winning from Post 20 vs. 19 others since early 1900s. Faced the most opponents in the the triple crown races. As a sidenote, he won FL from the outside.........All this is not ordinary. Plus he has done all of this with very unpopular connections.

i was at ap the other day, they had an allowance race on the card with horses who ran similar beyers to what big brown ran on sunday. are they great?
if anyone is still speaking of big brown 20, 30, 50 or a 100 years from now, i'll stand corrected. too much to ask?
kincsem ran a few centuries ago. man o war ran when world war one was happening, and colin ran vs man o wars father. yet those horses are still mentioned today. 50 years after man o war retired, 30-some years after he died, a horse ran at two who was compared to man o war, the question was asked if he was big red come back to life-30 years later that debate still rages as to who was better, secretariat or man o war. That is the definition of greatness.

as for the florida derby, i've said (more than once) that i thought big brown ran well there, in kentucky as well. that's why i said i didn't think he ran that well on sunday, it doesn't compare to how he ran in april/may. but those efforts don't make him great.

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by Danzig

how is saying a horse is not great saying a horse is mediocre? he may have been the best that year in that crop, doesn't mean he was great.

OK that was a fair challenge and I have no comeback. You didn't say mediocre, I did. At the same time, I think you are equally as off by using the word ordinary for Big Brown. At least he's got to be a "good" horse?

But I do pledge this to you and everybody else who is not a believer in Big Brown. If Big Brown wins the Breeders Cup Classic....he will be considered a great horse.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

OK that was a fair challenge and I have no comeback. You didn't say mediocre, I did. At the same time, I think you are equally as off by using the word ordinary for Big Brown. At least he's got to be a "good" horse?

But I do pledge this to you and everybody else who is not a believer in Big Brown. If Big Brown wins the Breeders Cup Classic....he will be considered a great horse.

huh?

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

huh?

Not sure why you are stumped? So he would not be great IF he wins two Triple Crown Races, Two Grade One Races, and the BCC?

[hockey2315]

Why would he be "great" if he beats more bad horses in the BC? The only way you could even make an argument for him being "great" - which in my opinion is a waste of time anyways - is if he were to face Curlin and beat him on dirt. . . which he could never do.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

OK that was a fair challenge and I have no comeback. You didn't say mediocre, I did. At the same time, I think you are equally as off by using the word ordinary for Big Brown. At least he's got to be a "good" horse?

But I do pledge this to you and everybody else who is not a believer in Big Brown. If Big Brown wins the Breeders Cup Classic....he will be considered a great horse.

i don't think he's anything special, as i don't think he has proven himself. he's been a beneficiary of a down year. most years he'd be an also ran, so why should he get a pass because he's a brighter spot compared to the rest of the crop this year? it doesn't work that way. some crops are great- the crop which included iron liege, bold ruler and round table for one, the crop which included secretariat and forego is another-or affirmed and alydar to name a few-some are deep-such as last years with three winners in three classics, with any given saturday and hard spun playing spoiler at times. some are like this year, which is absolutely a down year. big brown, when compared to good horses the last few years, is not great, or even very good. as for the classic, unless he faces curlin, and wins, he won't be anything more than ordinary, as we have pretty much conceded that this years older horses (other than curlin) is a joke.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

huh?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

Not sure why you are stumped? So he would not be great IF he wins two Triple Crown Races, Two Grade One Races, and the BCC?

no. he'll be a multiple grade one winner, but that doesn't automatically make him great. lucky maybe, but not great.


look at it this way...if i win the powerball when it's a quarter of a billion dollars, i'd be rich. does that mean i'm the equivalent of warren buffet?