The Donn This Saturday

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Chatain seems to have drawn very well and is getting 9 pounds from invasor i hope they run him saturday because i think he has a huge shot to win this race

[Buffymommy]

OK, Hesanoldsalt is entered in this race. Seems like his last workout was good. I like him in this spot.

[blackthroatedwind]

9th (5:23)
Donn H. (G1)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Invasor (ARG) Jara F 123 L
2 Halos Sailing Sain Bravo J 112 L
3 A. P. Arrow Desormeaux K J 112 L
4 Chatain Velasquez C 114 L
5 Tap Dancing Mauk Nunez E O 112 L
6 Hesanoldsalt Bejarano R 114 L
7 Magna Graduate Velazquez J R 118 L
8 Barcola Castellano J J 110 L
9 Strong Contender Prado E S 117 L

[Cajungator26]

I like Magna Graduate.

[blackthroatedwind]

Yet another example of why Handicaps are absurd in this country.

Invasor is giving five pounds to Magna Graduate and six to Strong Contendor.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I agree.

And it looks like the post draw offset whatever little edge those two might have been given from Invasor on the weights.

[slotdirt]

Confusion: are you saying Invasor should be carrying more weight or less? I'd say if it's truly a "handicap," he should be carrying considerably more than the others entered. I'd like Magna Graduate if he hadn't ran so terribly last time I saw him on Breeders Cup day.

[Gander]

Let me take a shot at a ML...

1 Invasor (ARG) Jara F 123 L 3/5
2 Halos Sailing Sain Bravo J 112 L 30/1
3 A. P. Arrow Desormeaux K J 112 L 12/1
4 Chatain Velasquez C 114 L 8/1
5 Tap Dancing Mauk Nunez E O 112 L 50/1
6 Hesanoldsalt Bejarano R 114 L 20/1
7 Magna Graduate Velazquez J R 118 L 9/2
8 Barcola Castellano J J 110 L 40/1
9 Strong Contender Prado E S 117 L 7/2

[Cajungator26]

On second thought, I like A. P. Arrow here too. I need to look at this stuff when I get home. I wish I was going to be down there this weekend.

[Sightseek]

Boggie Boggs & Longley in the same race on this card too, yeah!

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

On second thought, I like A. P. Arrow here too. I need to look at this stuff when I get home. I wish I was going to be down there this weekend.

come on down!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

Let me take a shot at a ML...

1 Invasor (ARG) Jara F 123 L 3/5
2 Halos Sailing Sain Bravo J 112 L 30/1
3 A. P. Arrow Desormeaux K J 112 L 12/1
4 Chatain Velasquez C 114 L 8/1
5 Tap Dancing Mauk Nunez E O 112 L 50/1
6 Hesanoldsalt Bejarano R 114 L 20/1
7 Magna Graduate Velazquez J R 118 L 9/2
8 Barcola Castellano J J 110 L 40/1
9 Strong Contender Prado E S 117 L 7/2

Gander, are you predicting how the betting will go, or is that an estimate of "fair odds"?

Here's my preliminary fair odds line:

PP# Horse Fair odds
1 Invasor 1-1
2 Halos Sailing Sain 60
3 AP Arrow 15
4 Chatain 10
5 Tap Dancing Mauk 125
6 Hesanoldsalt 12
7 Magna Grad 15
8 Barcola 15
9 Strong contender 10

IMO Invasor has about a 50% chance to win the race. If he has half the money in the win pool bet on him, he will be bet down to around 3-5. If he gets bet down further than that, I think he becomes a bet-against.

Anyone else think Barcola, shedding 14 lbs from his last race, is worth a look if 25-1?

--Dunbar

[KirisClown]

If Chatain can handle 9F he might offer a serious challenge, the others are just nowhere near good enough to beat Invasor.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Anyone happen to see Strong Contenders trip last out. It was horrendous. I expect a much better effort from him. While Pletcher is firing with just about anything he sends out AP Arrow really has no shot at all in here. I guess if you go by his 2005 form Magna Graduate can be in the money, but that race at Aqueduct, while visually impressive was about a good a set up you could ask for. I think invasor wins well, Strong Contender second and Chatain and Hesandoldsalt battling for 3rd and 4th.

I don't care for Strong Contender's post.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah, but he's got speed to his inside so he should be able to get over behind them a bit and who is better than Prado at saving ground?

Not many are better than Prado for saving ground...

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

ivasor is gonna roll again..me thinks..

[ArlJim78]

I look at the Donn like its Invasor's victory lap.

Time to soak it in as the reigning HOY with all the attention this time.

[AeWingnut]

Penna mentioned that Chatain was a candidate for a bounce after that strong performance. I don't like Invasor's post. Strong Contender has no one to blame but himself for the horrendous trip last time out.

I won't look at the race until Saturday. Think long think something something