Real Derby Contenders

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Who knows. Are any of them really bred to run that far anymore? But somebodys got to win

I think my favorite quote by a jockey was Bailey on High Fly when asked if he'd get the distance of the Derby; "He'll get it, I'm just not sure how fast"

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Who knows. Are any of them really bred to run that far anymore? But somebodys got to win

I posted this on another forum, maybe none are bred for the distance (except on turf in Hard Spun's case) but some are worse than others.

Horse - Sire AWD/Dam Sire AWD
Any Given Saturday - 6.9f/8.2f
Chelokee - 6.7/6.8
Circular Quay - 7.8/7.0
Cowtown Cat - 6.9/7.0
Curlin - 7.3/7.6
Deadly Dealer - 6.8/7.1
Dominican - 6.9/7.1
Great Hunter - 7.3/7.3
Hard Spun - 8.0/8.0
Liquidity - 7.6/7.5
Nobiz Like Shobiz - 7.4/7.0
Notional - 6.2/7.0
Officer Rocket - 6.2/7.3
Sam P - 6.8/8.0
Scat Daddy - 6.7/7.2
Stormello - 6.5/6.4
Street Sense - 7.0/7.1
Teuflesberg - 6.7/7.1
Tiago - 8.1/7.0
Zanjero - 6.7/8.2

Bold Start - 6.7/6.9
Joe Got Even - 7.3/7.3
Sedgefield - 7.3/9.1
Sightseeing - 7.6/8.4

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Keyed Entry didn't even make it six furlongs when the pace was 1:10 4/5ths. I don't see why he can't think Stormello will be this years Keyed Entry and that he won't run a 1:08 or even close to that.

With Kent Desormeaux riding Stormello you don't know what he's going to do.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

With Kent Desormeaux riding Stormello you don't know what he's going to do.

check while on the lead?

Originally Posted by Scav

No idea, and too tired to get all researchy right now

Good 'cause if you mentioned Bluegrass Cat I'd probably get really mad right about now

That goes for the rest of youse too. May I never hear that name again.

Originally Posted by Scav

I know you like GH to win the Derby, but have you seen Notional's TG sheet, a great progression line. GH didn't run too hot of a number first out, and he bore'd in which is never a good sign.

Yeah what is going on with that? He did same thing in the BC juv. if memory serves. I cant imagine it's a soundness issue to have gone on that long. Just pyschological? What was his last race, the Bob Lewis??

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

check while on the lead?

He'll go to his magic bag of tricks in the final furlong. I'm still laughing from the time he said that after talking Kristin Mulhal into running her horse in the Derby. Just cant remeber the horse right now, just Kent being Kent.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

He'll go to his magic bag of tricks in the final furlong. I'm still laughing from the time he said that after talking Kristin Mulhal into running her horse in the Derby. Just cant remeber the horse right now, just Kent being Kent.

Imperialism?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

With Kent Desormeaux riding Stormello you don't know what he's going to do.

At least he'll have 19 butts to choose from to ride up on...Derby Day is probably his dream come true.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

At least he'll have 19 butts to choose from to ride up on...Derby Day is probably his dream come true.

Outside of prison.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

At least he'll have 19 butts to choose from to ride up on...Derby Day is probably his dream come true.

Well......to be fair.....the guy has won the race twice.
He is not exactly my favorite jock either, but there are not a ton of guys with multiple Derby wins....so maybe he deserves SOME credit.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Only a few old-timers from the "old board" will know what I am talking about here but.....
The speculation about Derby horses can end NOW!! I have this great handicapping software that has made me trillions of dollars over the years and I have used it to determine the winner of the 2007 Kentucky Derby.
That winner is.......CONGAREE!!!!

lmao, oh wow that brought back memories. Thanks.

There's 8 pages on this thread so I haven't gotten all the way through but I was just thinking about how interesting it is that the top 2yos are by and large still in one piece, talented, and competitive at age 3. I was looking at the horses that are off the trail and most of them weren't at the level of Street Sense, Nobiz, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, etc. as 2yos. The ones that dropped off, for the most part, just had promise but fulfillment was still relatively yet to come. I mean am I imagining things that this group seems to've held up better from age 2 to 3 than usual?

[Dunbar]

Call me crazy, but I'm going to wait for today's races to decide who my real contenders are.

--Dunbar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Call me crazy, but I'm going to wait for today's races to decide who my real contenders are.

--Dunbar

what a radical concept?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Right now I see:

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Any Given Saturday

as the group most likely to win on Derby Day. I think Curlin and Deadly Dealer both have a chance to join that group tomorrow with a big effort.

Then horses like Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Tiago, and maybe even Sam P that I have a hard time seeing win but can see hitting the board. The rest I feel pretty confident in tossing at this point. Hard Spun is the only I could see possibly burning me but I am pretty confident playing against him is the right move.

Curlin got it done and moved to the first group, Deadly Dealer didn't and is gone. Other than that my opinions haven't changed on the Derby.

[pdrift1]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Curlin got it done and moved to the first group, Deadly Dealer didn't and is gone. Other than that my opinions haven't changed on the Derby.

street sense
any givensat
circular quay
curlin
think one of these four have the best shot

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

T-bred Fan.. I am so jealous of your Avatar. I need a copy of it to use as my wallpaper.
Curlin will make me want to bet him ? He'll have to get past For You Reppo first. I honeslty don't like the post for Curlin. There.. I found the chink in his armour. My friend that just keeps winning like Going Ballistic of all things
go figure

I'll try to find the post where Pillow made the graphic, and Curlin is a monster. I tried to tell you.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

That was Euro that knew of that lady... don't think he's on here anymore. Drat!

P.S.

The winner of the derby is coming out of the 9 hole.

He's here, look no further than Whodey, that is 100% without a doubt Euro. He was even braggin on the ESPN board the he would get back here eventually and he did.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

I'll try to find the post where Pillow made the graphic, and Curlin is a monster. I tried to tell you.

Thanks

I didn't even bet the Arkansas Derby

didn't have a dime by the time that race was run and it's a good thing cause I would have tossed Deadly Dealer from the trifecta. that track was so speed biased it was disgusting

[2Hot4TV]

Well Curlin moved to the top of my list the way he finished the final furlong. Has not been really tested and doesnt have alot of experiance, but he looks to be able to get the distance with some finish. Reminds me of Showing up last year.