Real Derby Contenders - Page 7

Scav · #**121** 04-13-2007, 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I agree, the pace should be solid and will take out anyone not fit enough to go the 10 furlongs. The only horses that might have the class to sit near it and do well are Nobiz and Any Given Saturday.

I think AGS might be 5-8 lengths back in the Derby, post will depend alot on that actually....

SniperSB23 · #**122** 04-13-2007, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I think AGS might be 5-8 lengths back in the Derby, post will depend alot on that actually....

Not to mention the 10 horses running up your butt forcing you to be a lot closer to the pace then you'd like for fear of being trampled.

#**123** 04-13-2007, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

No way AGS was loaded for the Wood, they could care less about it, they got the earnings, and they had him cranked enough for more earnings, he is going to be fully cranked on Derby day

This always leaves me scratching my head. Like they just wind them up so far and then they wind them up even more. Does the horse know he's only supposed to give so much?

How day do dat?

Scav · #**124** 04-13-2007, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by easy goer

This always leaves me scratching my head. Like they just wind them up so far and then they wind them up even more. Does the horse know he's only supposed to give so much?

How day do dat?

there are plenty of horses that have ran like crap in their final prep. I personally would do the same thing, I would have the horse at 50% and just get him out their to keep their mind right. I don't know the first thing about training horses but my guess is that they think the race will benefit them just not having their fitness level up, almost letting them race into form, like the old days

#**125** 04-13-2007, 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

If he never relaxed in the Wood (your opinion), what makes you think he's going to relax in the Derby? A rank, out of control and unrelaxed horse is going to have it VERY tough on the first Saturday in May.

WEll they are working with the horse w/ the blinks and ear muffs and maybe they can get him to relax. Tough task to change him at this pt. but maybe that's a reason...

#**126** 04-13-2007, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

there are plenty of horses that have ran like crap in their final prep. ...

Okay let's name some and try to determine if they had them "not fully cranked' or maybe they just threw a clunker.

Secretariat, 1973 Wood Memorial.

Think they didnt have him fully cranked?

Oh how about Giacamo? Maybe they dialed him down a notch, you know just so he wouldnt drain the tank before the derby....

Your turn..

Cannon Shell · #**127** 04-13-2007, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

I dont follow your logic?

Scav · #**128** 04-13-2007, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by easy goer

Okay let's name some and try to determine if they had them "not fully cranked' or maybe they just threw a clunker.

Secretariat, 1973 Wood Memorial.

Think they didnt have him fully cranked?

Oh how about Giacamo? Maybe they dialed him down a notch, you know just so he wouldnt drain the tank before the derby....

Your turn..

No idea, and too tired to get all researchy right now

Cannon Shell · #**129** 04-13-2007, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I haven't let go of that one yet either. I'm totally with you, because if Hunter runs like a monster tomorrow, it just helps Street Sense too -

How?

Scav · #**130** 04-13-2007, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont follow your logic?

I know you like GH to win the Derby, but have you seen Notional's TG sheet, a great progression line. GH didn't run too hot of a number first out, and he bore'd in which is never a good sign.

I read a while back that their is one one serious gambler that if they get a bi on their sheet they are auto plays against.

What I am hoping is that GH runs well to keep the focus off Notional as O'Neil's top horse. If he runs like crap tomorrow, then Notional will get all the attention...although, maybe not with the whole bank story and such

brianwspencer · #**131** 04-13-2007, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How?

As a betting proposition in the Derby....

Sightseek · #**132** 04-13-2007, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I know you like GH to win the Derby, but have you seen Notional's TG sheet, a great progression line. GH didn't run too hot of a number first out, and he bore'd in which is never a good sign.

I read a while back that their is one one serious gambler that if they get a bi on their sheet they are auto plays against.

What I am hoping is that GH runs well to keep the focus off Notional as O'Neil's top horse. If he runs like crap tomorrow, then Notional will get all the attention...although, maybe not with the whole bank story and such

I see him being a really nice horse at a shorter distance than the Derby.

SniperSB23 · #**133** 04-13-2007, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I see him being a really nice horse at a shorter distance than the Derby.

That's a nice way to put it. I was going to say he has a better chance of siring a giraffe than lasting ten furlongs.

Cannon Shell · #**134** 04-13-2007, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I know you like GH to win the Derby, but have you seen Notional's TG sheet, a great progression line. GH didn't run too hot of a number first out, and he bore'd in which is never a good sign.

I read a while back that their is one one serious gambler that if they get a bi on their sheet they are auto plays against.

What I am hoping is that GH runs well to keep the focus off Notional as O'Neil's top horse. If he runs like crap tomorrow, then Notional will get all the attention...although, maybe not with the whole bank story and such

No I meant your logic that the horse that was second in the Fl Derby and has a good sheet pattern would go off 40 to 60-1 in the Derby? He wont be better than 20-1 no matter what happens tomorrow.

Cannon Shell · #**135** 04-13-2007, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

As a betting proposition in the Derby....

Help his price, ok I get it now.

Scav · #**136** 04-13-2007, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

No I meant your logic that the horse that was second in the Fl Derby and has a good sheet pattern would go off 40 to 60-1 in the Derby? He wont be better than 20-1 no matter what happens tomorrow.

He'll be over 20/1, 20/1 will be 6th or 7th favorite.....40/1 is a little crazy, 30/1 is more like it, maybe I am wrong, I don't know.....