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#101
09-21-2006, 12:37 AM
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its a race, b/c of its location on the racing calender that allows females to be very competitive. I dont know the exact numbers, but females have won the Arc over the past 3 decades or so at a fairly high rate. here is a go- Urban Sea(dam of Galileo) Detroit(love the name) Allez France Three Troikas San San Gold River(beat April Run in that running of the Arc) Akiyda(AK horse) All Along Im sure there are more and plenty more that have run well. now, that obviously does not mean they have been dominant or even on equal terms with the males, but it does show that they can win at Longchamp. certainly the top Euro femal middle distance runners are more competitive than their American counterparts have been in race like the BCC or JCGC. Repent 
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#102
09-21-2006, 12:49 AM
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but I just would like to add that Alexandrova got her first test againt older females in the Yorkshire Oaks(race for 3 and 4YOs). she won easily and completed the Oaks triple by winning the Epsom, Irish, and Yorkshire Oaks races. awesome late close and I really think she is better right now than The Board. besides, I just do not see how OB can be at her best on Nov 4 after clashing with horses like Shirrocco, Electrocutionist, and Dylan Thomas all year. thats a tough campaign for any horse, especially a mare. Repent
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#103
09-21-2006, 12:52 AM
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I do agree though that alexandrova is a heck of a filly. Probably the best ive seen at this stage in some time. My heart and money will be with Ouija Board though. The lady is nothing but class.
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#104
09-21-2006, 01:09 AM
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but I would not compare Islington's 2003 campaign to what OB has faced this year. she ran in the POW, Eclipse, Yorkshire Oaks, and Irish Champions before coming to the BC. remember, a back problem kept her out of the King George that year and gave her a bit of a break. OB has been in Hong Kong(2x since last year's BC), the Coronation(shirocco race), POW, Nassau, and the Irish Champions this year. plus, she is going to run again before the BC. you might be right, I just think its going to be tough for her to do as a 5YO what Islington did as a 4YO considering the difficulty of her 2006 campaign. If she does, she is the definition of a supermare. Alexandrova is in really good form right now and might be a little sharper for the BCFMT. at least that is what I am counting on. Repent
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#105
09-21-2006, 01:29 AM
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Juv Fillies: Point Ashley-huge filly i think physically puts the others away
Juv: Horse Greeley Mile: Gorella-if she finds a opening in time and doesnt get blocked behind a wall of horses FM Turf: Ouija Board- if she can beat the boys back home she beats our girls i think here-but wait a while looks nice also Sprint: Henny Hughes- faster then a bullet and has done nothing wrong,destroyed his opp- war front as my backup Distaff: Pine Island-coming into her own at just the right time as long as she gets the pace-otherwise happy ticket, now heres a fighter Turf:Hurricane Run as long as shirocco is pointed to the classic. Classic: Bernardini-makes it look effortless, but will have to tested by older first, ask me after the jcgc.. from the heart and who i hope would win would be the drift but....as they said in Let It Ride =YOU NEVER KNOW- and a great story would be lava man but outside of cali i think he gets beat- horse that im very intrested in is shirocco-what if he runs on the dirt like he does the turf, that could be scary Last edited by pdrift1 : 09-21-2006 at 01:44 AM.
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#106
09-21-2006, 09:53 AM
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1985-Shadeed..4th @ 5/1(moved to 3rd via DQ) 1987-Milligram....13th @ 7/1 1988-Warning.....11th @ 9/5 1989-Zilzal.........6th @ 1/1 1990-Markofdistinction......7th @ 7/1 1993-Bigstone.......6th @ 12/1 1996-Mark of Esteem....7th @ 6/5 (part of an entry) 1998-Desert Prince.....14th @ 3/1 Interestingly, this race is similar to the Arc in that while no winners of either of these two races have gone on to win a BC race, quite a few of the losers have come over to win or run very well here. Among the QE losers to rebound and win the Mile are Miesque (1987), Barathea (1994), and Ridgewood Pearl (1995). I have noticed another trend lately. Because of the makeup of Ascot's course, a mile there is not a typical mile. Whereas in most miles, speed is key, at Ascot, stamina is more coveted. Look at some of the prominent QE finishers over the past six seasons: Dubai Millennium-1st 1999 Giant's Causeway-2nd 2000 Hawk Wing-2nd 2002 Falbrav-1st 2003 Rakti-1st 2004 Starcraft-1st 2005 All of those horses named were adept at running 8f but were seemingly better, at least in my opinion, at distances closer to 10f. If I were looking for an angle to use from this race, it would be to bring the winner over here to run in the Classic and an also-ran to run and do pretty well in the Mile.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#107
09-21-2006, 10:11 AM
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But I NEVER Said tha she woud lose the Galaxy...she'll be 1-2 in the wagering there.... As for your Commentator remarks...good stuff...I agree with most of it..he is a good horse and great when on his game, but I am afraid that he is a horse that has to have things his own way to a large degree, which isn't a successful formula for winning a race like the BC Sprint when he will indeed be pushed hard and will have o rate at some point in the race....I think seven furlongs is his best game, and if he remains sound to next year's Met Mile then I think he would be really tough in a race like that.... I actually bet him in his last race and I rarely take chalk...so it goes to show you that I thought he was the goods too, but I was obviously wrong... As for the 'silly foolishness' or whatever comments...not sure what thats all about.....these are opinions, not digs...
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#108
09-21-2006, 10:14 AM
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#109
09-21-2006, 10:24 AM
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I just thought up a trifecta that I like for the Classic depending on how the horses do in their next starts...
Bernardini, Sun King and Shirocco (if he runs here). I don't know the order yet and I will probably change it 50 times before the race, but I am feeling these three horses as of right now. I also don't know who is exactly running in the race either. If they throw Discreet Cat in here, I may have to change my decision around a little bit...
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#110
09-21-2006, 10:42 AM
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If I were forecasting a TRI, I would key Bernardini and try to beat a hard-campaigned Invasor, who will be hard to kepp of the board IMO if right, in the second spot with a real sleeper at a price that could get a good trip and love Churchill Downs....the first horse that comes to mind right now is Bright One if he were to run well in the Indiana Derby and show that 1 1/4 miles won't be an issue for him...he'd be 25-1 or more in the Classic...Good Reward could also close in for a piece at a price stretching back to around two-turns at 1 1/4 miles...I knew he'd run bad in the one-turn Brooklyn...Sweetnorthersaint has the ability to be my EXACTA hotrse but who knows where hes at right now in his training...Discreet Cat completes the exacta and may even challenge for the win with his best effort if he goes - but he won't... Don't like Lava Man (pace, fade), or Sun King, or Flower Alley, or Premium Tap, or Jazil or really any of the Euros...jus don't see any prospects that asre either SUPER classy over there or have a maintrack pedgiree like Giant's Causeway did....If any have a shot it would be David Junior just because he is a Pleasant Tap but ALL of his Appleton family on the bottomside is grass.. Lawyer Ron wold be interesting to hit the board IF he steps forward and wins the Super Derby nicely...mostly the interest here is that he trains at CD and that is his home....I guess Buzzard's Bay is just done...Magnum is okay when he was a closer and sucked when they took him out of his gama and started putting him up on the pace....Cindago isn't ready yet....everything else out on the west coast is not much... Hell, who have I left out?
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#111
09-21-2006, 10:44 AM
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__________________
"Until one has loved an animal, part of their soul remains unawaken. 
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#113
09-21-2006, 10:53 AM
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Oh, I forgot to mention:
Giacomo...no shot, Second of june..game but not good enough, Suave..actualy interesting with his best but he is too inconsistent for me and i doubt that he is a fighter...he should have beaten Magna Gaduate at CD in last year's Clark and was puerly out-gamed to the wire when he had aim and went by on the outside...but he likes CD and gets the distance..a little interesting underneath, Super Frolic ran huge in this race last year at like 60-1 but his best only puts him in TRIS and SUPERS, all of John Ward's horses are under-experienced and over-matched... OH, I ALMOST FORGOT PERFECT DRIFT!!! - who I actually like to hit the board with Leparoux but he cannot win....Here is my TRI now: Bernardini / Perfect Drift / Invasor ..as for last place finisher...well, you never know what cheap speed will be thrown in to the wolves and fade to last, but I really think Shirocco will run horribly on the dirt....Seek Gold might be the worst horse in the race, but his plodding style and the fact he'll get the distance and likes CD will allow him to pass a few tiring horses in the stretch....
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#114
09-21-2006, 10:54 AM
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#115
09-21-2006, 10:57 AM
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#116
09-21-2006, 10:57 AM
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Are you sure OB is running again before the BC? I can't find it but I think I read an article quoting Ed Dunlop saying OB would get a break and then head to the BC. ( I hope she gets a little break)
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Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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#117
09-21-2006, 11:24 AM
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#118
09-21-2006, 11:47 AM
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#119
09-21-2006, 12:03 PM
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I like Sun King more than PD at this point. He is really, really coming into form, and is always right there when they hit the wire. I think that Sun King can beat Invasor in the Classic. He almost got him in the Whitney, one more jump... I think that I would include Invasor in my Super... I don't really like any of the others in this race besides Shirocco. If he goes and his grass form is converted onto the dirt...he's right there. Very talented animal. I'll pass on the rest of the Euros for the moment, but I'll be watching them in addition to Flower Alley, LR, Premium Tap, and Bright One. If Pletcher throws Flower Alley in the race...beware. If he is entered, he will be ready... I don't think that the rest are good enough or will be ready in time with the exception of Lava Man, but I don't like him in this spot. And you all know how I feel about Bernardini...
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#120
09-21-2006, 12:12 PM
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