6/7 (BEL): 140th Belmont Stakes

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by munster705

You simply can't make any money in the race unless you beat the superstar

I strongly disagree.

[SniperSB23]

You know it is an exciting race when only two days out the sub-headline is still "Tomcito out".

[IrishofNDMan]

I'm thinking of playing something like this:

$5 tri

Big Brown
with
Denis of Cork, Anak Nakal
with
Denis of Cork, Anak Nakal, Casino Drive, Tale of Ekati

A healthy Big Brown kills this field.

[munster705]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I strongly disagree.

Unless you are going to invest a lot of money, how are you getting any value payoffs with Big Brown on top?

[munster705]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I'm thinking of playing something like this:

$5 tri

Big Brown
with
Denis of Cork, Anak Nakal
with
Denis of Cork, Anak Nakal, Casino Drive, Tale of Ekati

A healthy Big Brown kills this field.

Big Brown
Denis Of Cork
Casino Drive

Tri pays about $30 for $2

[GBBob]

not that he worries, but does anyone think Dutrow is worried about breaking on the rail with a maiden to his right who could be a basket case by post time?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I'm thinking of playing something like this:

$5 tri

Big Brown
with
Denis of Cork, Anak Nakal
with
Denis of Cork, Anak Nakal, Casino Drive, Tale of Ekati

A healthy Big Brown kills this field.

If that happens you will make nothing.

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by munster705

Big Brown
Denis Of Cork
Casino Drive

Tri pays about $30 for $2

disagree, it pays atleast 70 in that order.

[munster705]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

disagree, it pays atleast 70 in that order.

You are absolutely out of your mind. Thats is 1/5, 10-1, 3-1

Thats pays $30 if you are lucky

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

disagree, it pays atleast 70 in that order.

No chance in hell. Might not even pay $70 with Anak Nakal in third.

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

If that happens you will make nothing.

I think that order still paysd $70 for $2....... not for sure betting this, just throwing it out there to get opinions like this.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by munster705

Unless you are going to invest a lot of money, how are you getting any value payoffs with Big Brown on top?

If I play a Big Brown/Casino Drive/Icabad Crane straight triple for $40 and it comes in, I'll probably get back $700-$800. That's fine with me.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

No chance in hell. Might not even pay $70 with Anak Nakal in third.

What about with Readys Echo in 3rd??

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by munster705

You are absolutely out of your mind. Thats is 1/5, 10-1, 3-1

Thats pays $30 if you are lucky

you are out of your mind playing Da Tara!

[munster705]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I think that order still paysd $70 for $2....... not for sure betting this, just throwing it out there to get opinions like this.

I dont see how any combination with BB on top and Casino Drive underneath can be anything more than $100. This is basically a match race.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

What about with Readys Echo in 3rd??

Probably about the same. The only chance for the tri to pay anything with Big Brown on top is if both Denis of Cork and Casino Drive are off the board.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by munster705

Unless you are going to invest a lot of money, how are you getting any value payoffs with Big Brown on top?

Did you see what the Preakness tri paid? $300 something for $2. I hated Gayego in that race and played BB w/ Macho Again and KY Bear w/ ALL - only costed $20 for every $1. There's nothing wrong with conceding the race to Big Brown and playing against the second favorite underneath if he looks vulnerable and you're of the opinion that some big priced horses can run 2nd and/or 3rd.

I plan on using Big Brown and Denis of Cork in the PK4 which I think will pay pretty well even if BB wins.

I'll also play TRIs

Big Brown w/ DofC w/ Da'Tara, Anak Nakal, Macho Again, and Ready's Echo.

If I play them each for $25 I'm probably looking at $1500+.

I think you're better off trying to beat Casino Drive and embracing Big Brown. He'll be the bigger underlay in my opinion because everyone loves the Better Than Honour thing - but everyone keeps forgetting that the horse is completely unproven, only has two races, etc. The only horse that can beat Big Brown is Denis because if something takes out Big Brown (pace) it will also probably compromise Casino Drive and set up for a closer.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Probably about the same. The only chance for the tri to pay anything with Big Brown on top is if both Denis of Cork and Casino Drive are off the board.

I guess it depends on what you consider "anything"

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

disagree, it pays atleast 70 in that order.

$70 seems way high to me. Every novice will box the three faves.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I guess it depends on what you consider "anything"

Anything would be enough to convince me that it's not a better play to use that extra money trying to beat Big Brown. If you don't like both Denis and Casino Drive to finish off the board then there is no point in betting Big Brown on top unless you are willing to do a straight tri like Joey is.