TVG vs Scav Selection Thread

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

For anyone confused....

The last winner was a first timer on the turf with some breeding and was certainly not an illogical winner on paper and hardly a surprising winner per se and just as unsurprising a use by someone playing the race. However, after the race was run, a proper analysis of the race reveals that he was a fortunate recipient of extraordinarily favorable circumstances.

First of all, take a good look at the pps of the entire field and tell me honestly that the pace figured to unfold in the advantageous manner it did for the winner. Magic Wand dueled in a 22 and 45 pace in her debut. Vivacious Vivian was involved in reasonable paces in sprints in her two races ( both on the turf ). Justinline was on or very near the lead in three previous turf sprints. Stormy Miracle, the winner, also had shown real speed, but to predict that the horse would easily make the lead, and be able to run his middle half in 53 seconds, while on the lead, would have been near inpossible. The pace was so helpful to the frontrunner that Justinline, who stalked him, was able to hold to the finish of this mile race even though he had lost ground in the stretch in all of his previous efforts going a quarter of a mile, or more, less ground.

But there's more....much more. While the second place finisher did benefit from a ground saving trip, as the winner did, she was shuffled a bit into and around the turn, but more importantly when she tried to get outside for clear running into the stretch she was completely shut off. This forced her rider to alter course back to the inside where she moved up and was only able to get clear when it was too late. Like many horses, she clearly did her best running when free and outside of horses, and had she split at the top of the stretch she most likely would have won. Now, she would have done so with a sweet trip, but considering the pace dynamics of the race, and the fact that little ground was gained by any closers, she hardly ran in a race that suited her running style. You combine these factors and she was an unfortunate loser.

But there's more......the fourth place finisher Kristi with a K blew the break by breaking to the far outside and continued with a wide trip against the aforementioned slow pace. In a mildly fairly run race, even with the ground loss, she too would probably have beaten the winner.

In my opinion had the race been run fairly, and by this I mean an honest and not crawling pace, not a blistering speed duel either, both the second and fourth finishers would have beaten the winner. If this doesn't make the winner fortunate I simply don't know what does.

Somebody cashes every bet that pays off at the racetrack. That does not change the reality of any given race and how it played out upon reflection. Explaining this obviously doesn't demean anyone, and certainly we have all cashed when we got lucky, but perverting the events to somehow suit some ridiculous additional personal need would be absurd.....and I'm sure Phil was neither doing that nor would he disagree about this race.

I think it's worth revisiting this thread, and the 9th race at Aqueduct on November 17th, considering the results of both the 4th and 8th races at Gulfstream today.

[the_fat_man]

Damn, wish I would've seen this. I was SO IMPRESSED by ALWAJEEHA's last race, you know, the one where she would've won if she wasn't steadied early, that I figured the 12 (2nd in the former's maiden win) was a lock.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think it's worth revisiting this thread, and the 9th race at Aqueduct on November 17th, considering the results of both the 4th and 8th races at Gulfstream today.

She should have won, had a ton of trouble AGAIN and was 3 in front past the wire. I was way wrong on the post time price though, 9.50-1.

I think the problem was she was running with my money on her back today, which apparently was an anchor.

[djw]

The regernation of this post, and the proof of the logic behind it is why this is the best place to be.

Thanks, Andy, for taking the time so I could re-read and then learn through research and maybe even understand a litlle bit about what you were saying.