They'll be Hanging From the Rafters at the Big A Friday

[ManilaRose]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

There are plenty of horses like that. Horses that have the speed to compete at shorter distances because they vary their speed early from race to race and come late with one big burst. Afleet Alex was like that, able to win stakes at 6 and 12 furlongs. Even Steppenwolfer has a burst of speed at the end even if it hasn't been helping him get in the winner's circle. Jazil just runs the same speed the whole way, that doesn't get it done at shorter distances. If you look at the fractions today Jara screwed up and rode the horse like he was a closer rather than a plodder. He kept him far off the pace when it went through in almost 24, 48, and 1:12. Jazil could have been close to that pace and still kept his 24- 25 clip through the finish line. Once he is way behind a 1:12 he doesn't have that closing kick to go win the race. Jara gave the horse no chance.

I'm not on the Jara bandwagon but nobody would've won on him today. You won't ever see him close to the pace because the horse has no early speed at all. Second and most importantly, he was visibly tired at the end and being closer to the pace certainly wouldn't have helped him finish any stronger. How good is he? I don't know, but he should certainly improve off the start as it appears he needed the race and got something out of it.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ManilaRose

I'm not on the Jara bandwagon but nobody would've won on him today. You won't ever see him close to the pace because the horse has no early speed at all. Second and most importantly, he was visibly tired at the end and being closer to the pace certainly wouldn't have helped him finish any stronger. How good is he? I don't know, but he should certainly improve off the start as it appears he needed the race and got something out of it.

Here were his fractions through 4 furlongs in each of his past races, all at a longer distance than yesterday's race was run:

9f Allowance GP - 48.80
Fountain of Youth - 48.90
Wood Memorial - 48.34
Kentucky Derby - 48.79
Belmont Stake - 49.04

Yesterday - 49.51

So in all of his five races he went at least three lengths faster in the early going than yesterday even though those races ranged from 9 to 12 furlongs. This wasn't a case where he couldn't have gone faster early. It was a case that his jockey had become so used to coming from deep that he ran the race as if he had to come deep when the horse should have been sitting 5-6 lengths off the slow pace early.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Here were his fractions through 4 furlongs in each of his past races, all at a longer distance than yesterday's race was run:

9f Allowance GP - 48.80
Fountain of Youth - 48.90
Wood Memorial - 48.34
Kentucky Derby - 48.79
Belmont Stake - 49.04

Yesterday - 49.51

So in all of his five races he went at least three lengths faster in the early going than yesterday even though those races ranged from 9 to 12 furlongs. This wasn't a case where he couldn't have gone faster early. It was a case that his jockey had become so used to coming from deep that he ran the race as if he had to come deep when the horse should have been sitting 5-6 lengths off the slow pace early.

Just watched the race, it was a useful return. He put in a nice late run on the outside and the intention wasn't really to win this race. I wouldn't read too much into anythin on this, when he was asked he put his head down and went to work. That's all we really need to take out of it.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Just watched the race, it was a useful return. He put in a nice late run on the outside and the intention wasn't really to win this race. I wouldn't read too much into anythin on this, when he was asked he put his head down and went to work. That's all we really need to take out of it.

Yeah, it is doubtful he'll ever be in another paceless race but I hope if he does wind up in another one that they don't drop him deep and instead keep him right around the 24.5 clip that he is most effective at whether that means being 20 lengths back or 5. He should have a shot in the Gulfstream Park Handicap with the majority of good horses being in Dubai or California and a distance that should be to his liking. After that things are going to get a lot tougher.

[Gander]

I thought Jazil would win yesterday but would be hard pressed to ever bet him to win at what I knew would be a very short price. My question is how a horse like Jazil gets to be a short price. Who in their right mind would bet a horse who everybody knows has no shot of being above 2/5?

I really cant comprehend how any horse like this gets to be the price they are.

If I had to bet a horse at 2/5, one coming off a long layoff that comes from the clouds wouldnt be it. I would much rather have a speed horse that is going for consecutive victories or something like that.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Gander

I thought Jazil would win yesterday but would be hard pressed to ever bet him to win at what I knew would be a very short price. My question is how a horse like Jazil gets to be a short price. Who in their right mind would bet a horse who everybody knows has no shot of being above 2/5?

I really cant comprehend how any horse like this gets to be the price they are.

If I had to bet a horse at 2/5, one coming off a long layoff that comes from the clouds wouldnt be it. I would much rather have a speed horse that is going for consecutive victories or something like that.

Agreed. I thought 3/1 was a gift on Take the Bluff and structured my P4 tickets around him and the one next to him. Sadly it got burned up in the finale.

Nothing wrong with Jazil but 2/5 on a horse that really wasn't cranked up AND THE TRAINER INDICATED AS SO is ridiculous.