Dunkirk -- 2 Questions

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by docicu3

How the hell does QR go off longer than Dunkirk given his last two races? This insane desire to make Dunkirk more than his races show is exceeded only by the psychotic hype of POTN. What has Dunkirk actually done that doesn't deserve a line of 10-1 or better. If he was the best horse in the Florida Derby he would have accelerated right by QR at the top of the stretch but he gassed like the silver and bronze he will be at best in the derby.

The future odds on QR probably reflect some lingering uncertainty about the quarter crack.

--Dunbar

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

The future odds on QR probably reflect some lingering uncertainty about the quarter crack.

--Dunbar

Obviously every injury is a unique event however BB seem to run decently with a quarter crack in last years KD. QR just seems to be disrespected out of proportion to his performance on the track. All this BS that you have to factor in the "great trips" he has gotten in his wins is complete crap. The horse gets the trip he gets because he grabs the perfect spot to stalk and kill. Plain and simple...

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Obviously every injury is a unique event however BB seem to run decently with a quarter crack in last years KD. QR just seems to be disrespected out of proportion to his performance on the track. All this BS that you have to factor in the "great trips" he has gotten in his wins is complete crap. The horse gets the trip he gets because he grabs the perfect spot to stalk and kill. Plain and simple...

I don't think BB had a quarter crack in the Derby, did he?

[NTamm1215]

I think that while Quality Road's Florida Derby can be questioned a bit because of his trip, his Ftn of Youth is really not getting enough respect. He was right on a very hot pace that afternoon and still finished up strong. That was a very strong effort and it seems like it's been somewhat forgotten.

If you want to talk about perfect trips and horses who probably won't enjoy one again in the Derby, I have two words for you: Friesan Fire.

NT

[King Glorious]

I still think that you don't go in the Derby unless you think you can win it and you have to plan accordingly. You know that the Preakness comes up in two short weeks and the Belmont is three weeks after that. I think so many people focus only on the Derby that they forget that they have to have a horse that's ready go complete the triple crown attempt. No Derby winner is going to be skipping the Preakness these days. Horses are like other athletes in that they have to be conditioned for the tasks that they are being asked to do. You wouldn't take a relief pitcher that's used to throwing one inning a night and all of a sudden ask him to be a starter and throw nine. Why would we expect any horse that runs once every 6-8 weeks to be ready to all of a sudden go three times in seven?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't really see anyone disrespecting Quality Road. Just kind of discussing the race dynamics of the Florida Derby. In regards to trips, I agree somewhat that he has been able to get some easy trips because he makes the trip. He's quick, but has shown he can rate kindly. But when you look at his two big wins in Florida, it's hard to ignore the fact he has sat perfect trips. It's hard to imagine he'll get that kind of a setup again though...in a 20 horse field nonetheless. What if he breaks a step slow and takes a lot of dirt to the face?

They said the same things about Smarty Jones in 2004. How come it's always the good horses that have speed and quickness that always get downgraded because they have the speed and quickness to allow themselves to get good trips while the ones that don't possess those attributes and always find themselves in trouble are always the ones on the "horses to watch list" because it's expected that sooner or later, they will get their good trip? I don't think it matters if it's a 40-horse field. If he has more natural speed than 38 or 39 of them, chances are he's going to get the same kind of setup that he's been getting. Out of the horses that are prospective Derby horses at this point, how many do you see that should be in front of him early and keep him from sitting in the same position that he's sat in his last two?

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Spend a Buck did it 3 years later (1985) because of the big bonus offered by another track. I think that led to purse increases for each of the TC races.

--Dunbar

First Jersey Securities thief Robert Brennan offered a $2 million bonus to any horse that could win the Cherry Hill Mile, the Kentucky Derby, and the Jersey Derby (then run at 1 1/4 on the dirt three weeks after the Derby). Spend A Buck swept the three races, skipped the Belmont, and then came back to win the Haskell.

Edit: Just did a little more research. Creme Fraiche finished second in the Jersey Derby and won the Belmont two weeks later.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think that while Quality Road's Florida Derby can be questioned a bit because of his trip, his Ftn of Youth is really not getting enough respect. He was right on a very hot pace that afternoon and still finished up strong. That was a very strong effort and it seems like it's been somewhat forgotten.

If you want to talk about perfect trips and horses who probably won't enjoy one again in the Derby, I have two words for you: Friesan Fire.

NT

Friesian Fire's three races w/6F splits of 1:13 stick out like a sore thumb to me...

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think that while Quality Road's Florida Derby can be questioned a bit because of his trip, his Ftn of Youth is really not getting enough respect. He was right on a very hot pace that afternoon and still finished up strong. That was a very strong effort and it seems like it's been somewhat forgotten.

This horse can't really control the pace in the Derby. He's just not good enough. At best, and most likely, he tries to sit a stalking trip, and prays that nothing else is coming. Problem is, there are too many horses in the race for QR to be the only horse sitting pretty on the turn. There will be multiple moves in the Derby, and (especially if the pace is fast) the race will most certainly collapse. Probably not a complete collapse but certainly not one where the horse inheriting the lead wins the race. Add to this that Velazquez is about as reliable as Prado these days and you have a very poor bet. With all the focus on POTN as the toss horse in the Derby, QR and FF make much better sense as tosses (to WIN) and they will be shorter odds.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This horse can't really control the pace in the Derby. He's just not good enough. At best, and most likely, he tries to sit a stalking trip, and prays that nothing else is coming. Problem is, there are too many horses in the race for QR to be the only horse sitting pretty on the turn. There will be multiple moves in the Derby, and (especially if the pace is fast) the race will most certainly collapse. Probably not a complete collapse but certainly not one where the horse inheriting the lead wins the race. Add to this that Velazquez is about as reliable as Prado these days and you have a very poor bet. With all the focus on POTN as the toss horse in the Derby, QR and FF make much better sense as tosses (to WIN) and they will be shorter odds.

I disagree and I think you're making some generalizations.

1. I hate trying to figure out what the pace scenario is going to be for a race that hasn't even drawn and has a field that is in flux until three days prior. However, I don't agree that "he's just not good enough" to control the pace in the Derby.

2. There could very easily be multiple moves in the Derby, especially considering there are many pace pressers heading to the race but not necessarily speed horses at this point in time. I don't really think that's a big issue, though, if QR is able to stalk the pace in a Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, Barbaro, Big Brown type fashion.

3. I think the whole thing about the Derby pace collapsing is over-blown. There's just not enough speed pointing to the Derby right now to envision a pace collapse. The most plausible scenario I could imagine is Regal Ransom getting stupid and horses like FF and QR getting run into the ground chasing him. I just don't see it happening.

4. I'm not a jockey capper and I think that Johnny V is as good if not better than Chavez, Santos, Elliott, Smith, and Borel and they've each won a Derby in this decade.

I think there's a big difference between a horse who has chased dawdling paces, taken over and kicked clear against poor to moderate late runners and a horse who has stalked good fractions, taken over and at least in his biggest race to date held off a pretty good horse, who might have been disadvantaged by pace.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think there's a big difference between a horse who has chased dawdling paces, taken over and kicked clear against poor to moderate late runners and a horse who has stalked good fractions, taken over and at least in his biggest race to date held off a pretty good horse, who might have been disadvantaged by pace.

NT

I'll address this point because some of the others are contained within it. He held off Dunkirk because he got an absolutely perfect setup. It wasn't even about the track being speed favoring, which most seem to be focusing on (including Pletcher) or pace (as the rest of the field went backwards). It was about Dunkirk having to run on the turn, significantly, wide and on his own, with no help from the field, against a horse that had sat a perfect trip (relative to the runner up). Now, why would any horse not look good under those circumstances? (And I don't think his FOY was any better -- less distance, more distance challenged types, on a track that was producing high figures all meet.) When will QR ever get another trip like that? Certainly not in the Derby. Do I want this horse at (relatively) low odds?

It's not about the Derby collapsing or how fast the pace is but rather QR actually having to run a bit more with Dunkirk or some other closer running the same. This involves just just a single horse moving 1st on the turn and forcing QR to go with him. Under those circumstances, not far fetched given the size of the field and that there will be a few horses in the race who can actually get a distance, this horse will have to run a bit. Maybe he has it in him. But the significant run Dunkirk made against him doesn't make it appear very likely to me.

Compare his last two races to those of I Want Revenge, for example.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'll address this point because some of the others are contained within it. He held off Dunkirk because he got an absolutely perfect setup. It wasn't even about the track being speed favoring, which most seem to be focusing on (including Pletcher) or pace (as the rest of the field went backwards). It was about Dunkirk having to run on the turn, significantly, wide and on his own, with no help from the field, against a horse that had sat a perfect trip (relative to the runner up). Now, why would any horse not look good under those circumstances? (And I don't think his FOY was any better -- less distance, more distance challenged types, on a track that was producing high figures all meet.) When will QR ever get another trip like that? Certainly not in the Derby. Do I want this horse at (relatively) low odds?

It's not about the Derby collapsing or how fast the pace is but rather QR actually having to run a bit more with Dunkirk or some other closer running the same. This involves just just a single horse moving 1st on the turn and forcing QR to go with him. Under those circumstances, not far fetched given the size of the field and that there will be a few horses in the race who can actually get a distance, this horse will have to run a bit. Maybe he has it in him. But the significant run Dunkirk made against him doesn't make it appear very likely to me.

Compare his last two races to those of I Want Revenge, for example.

I completely understand what you're saying. However, I don't put as much stock in Dunkirk's wide move because he is more likely to have to make that type of move each time he runs, he had made that move in each of his first two starts, and GP's wide turns lend themselves well to wide moves, much more so than a place like CD. That being said, it's pretty safe to say that QR's trip in the Fla Derby was good.

My opinion of his FOY effort has less to do with his figure and more to do with the finishing position of the horses who also participated in the pace. He was the only one of them running at the end and the fact that he turned back Theregoesjojo, who I think is a one-run, one-turn horse, shows how well he ran on that afternoon.

I bolded your last statement because I think IWR, like QR and FF is a great case in point when it comes to trips. His Gotham win in my opinion was one of the easiest trips of the prep season. Stalking that pace while hounding a bona fide sprinter and drawing off late amounted to a good effort but everything went his way.

In the Wood he had everything superficial happen to him that a novice trip handicapper loves to see. The poor break, traffic, late split of horses makes everyone, Tom Durkin included, focus on how he was "in trouble throughout." However, as you astutely pointed out this morning, the race flow really played into his hands. The 2nd quarter of the Wood was significantly faster than the first and the pacesetters were basically a bunch of bums just waiting to spit it in the lane. The race fell apart at the eighth pole and he basically last moved them as you like to say.

I think there's a big difference between the way IWR ran and if he had somehow been foolishly rushed up going the backstretch (a la Gomez on Massone). He was given a perfectly patient ride, one which Talamo probably doesn't get enough credit for. Even an average jockey can look great when he has enough confidence in his animal to be patient.

NT

[Bobby Fischer]

Quality Road will probably not get to easily establish great position , turn on "cruise-control" and sit pretty until he makes the last move as in the Florida Derby.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Compare his last two races to those of I Want Revenge, for example.

IWR - Gotham - Rated outside a weak rival on a moderate pace and crushed them while running extremely fast late. - the only question being that another horse in that same race went just as fast late...

IWR - Wood - left at the gate - unhurried behind a mediocre field with a fast set-up, was forced to make a late run checking and waiting behind a wall of horses and easily passed his out-classed rivals in late stretch.

they were both different for obvious reasons

they were similar because the key questions for both horses in some ways went unanswered, - although IWR appeared to be able to handle class adversity if we make an educated guess forward from his low-class adversity in the wood.

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Obviously every injury is a unique event however BB seem to run decently with a quarter crack in last years KD. QR just seems to be disrespected out of proportion to his performance on the track. All this BS that you have to factor in the "great trips" he has gotten in his wins is complete crap. The horse gets the trip he gets because he grabs the perfect spot to stalk and kill. Plain and simple...

Big Brown didn't have a quarter crack in the Derby or Preakness but he did in the Belmont and you know how that worked out....

[PPerfectfan]

Originally Posted by Danzig

pletcher knew beforehand? well, then why didn't he scratch if he knew the track wasn't conducive to his horses running style? he knew the horse pretty much had to win to get in the field-or get damned lucky. he blasted the track because he lost, and he sure didn't want to get blamed-and it can't be the horse....

good luck with your derby horse.

Umm thats what I keep thinking but I look at it this way, he will be this years "wiseguy" horse and take tons of money and finish mid pack and inflate the odds of horses I like!!

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

Big Brown didn't have a quarter crack in the Derby or Preakness but he did in the Belmont and you know how that worked out....

My bad your right....it was the 20 hole that had him being looked at as an impossible to win. The hole was no big deal.....the Belmont....well that was a very different story wasn't it

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm not a hater. i just think others deserve a better look for the next few weeks than dunkirk.
and i don't think he is better than several horses out there-and i think it would not be in the best interests of the horse to run him in ky, all things considered about him. if he needs easy treatment, and well-spaced races, that's what they should do with him.

lets do a head to head bet

I'll take Dunkirk, and you can choose any other horse in the race (this only happens if Dunkirk actually races in the KY Derby)

the bet is just based on where Dunkirk finished compared to where the horse you pick finished.

Loser has to buy the beers when you come to central Florida.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

lets do a head to head bet

I'll take Dunkirk, and you can choose any other horse in the race (this only happens if Dunkirk actually races in the KY Derby)

the bet is just based on where Dunkirk finished compared to where the horse you pick finished.

Loser has to buy the beers when you come to central Florida.

To be fair, you might want to point out just how many beers you can drink.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

To be fair, you might want to point out just how many beers you can drink.

How many beers I drink will have to depend on who wins this bet LOL

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

lets do a head to head bet

I'll take Dunkirk, and you can choose any other horse in the race (this only happens if Dunkirk actually races in the KY Derby)

the bet is just based on where Dunkirk finished compared to where the horse you pick finished.

Loser has to buy the beers when you come to central Florida.

i don't drink beer. but i'll be happy to buy you a few when we get down there in july.

i don't have a derby pick as yet.