12/12: AQU - $206,0000 Carryover

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Missile Motor didn't look all that much different in his romp at the meadowlands and his romp at Aqueduct. Maybe a little sharper , it was hard to tell.

Oy vey.

[dylbert]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I understand but my original point was different, defensible, and succinct.......prior to the 111 Missile Motor's speed figures did not suggest that he was a better horse on a wet track than he was on a dry track. The numbers back that up. I think that point you will find indisputable.

Agreed.

In Louisiana, any horse that jumped like that is getting some kind of "juice". Is Contessa the "Cole Norman of New York?" Does he work miracles with claimed horses that show meteoric improvement? However, when claimed, these miracle horses suddenly reverse form as they fade, flail, and fizzle for new connections.

The question will get answered tomorrow afternoon.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But, to be fair, let's take a look at the other participants in Missile Motor's Grade 1 type performance.....Fleet Valid finished second and earned an 88. His previous six figures were 81, 101, 75, 102, 80 and 108. Introspect, who finished third, got an 87. His previous figs were 75 ( off a layoff ), 84, 88, 83, 92, 88 and 87. He's a Pioneer ( 4th ) got an 81. His prior efforts earned 85, 93, 91, 68, 101 and 93. That Magic Moment was 5th and earned an 80. His prior numbers were 71, 85, 70, 67 and 81. Daddy Joe got a 66 for his 6th place finish. His prior numbers were 98, 78, 82 and 79. The Student, who was 7th, got a 64. His prior efforts earned 86, 90, 91, 87 and 93. And Sinkwich finished 8th and last and earned a 61. His prior numbers were 53, 88, 67, 83, 90, 88 and 88.

I just took a look at the race and have a few comments/questions for you.

I see where Fleet Valid's number ranges from 75 to 108. And he's run over 100 in half of his previous six figures. Is this type of range typical? (Doesn't appear so, given the ranges of the other horses in the race.) If I were doing numbers, I would probably think that looking at this horse's performance would be the best way to approach the winner's number, as FV is the only one that's run close to the winner's number in the past. But, I don't do numbers and I believe that the winner had an advantage that probably goes a long way towards explaining his number.

I didn't take a look at the running style of the other horses in the race but it appears as if Fleet Valid likes the front. He got slammed coming out of the gate in this race, however, and, then, clearly didn't like the dirt being kicked in his face on the backstretch. So much so, that the jock had to swing him outside horses. Then, he was in tight early stretch, and had to wait a bit for room.

Now, the interesting question is not whether FV is able to run with the winner in the lane (his previous peak was 108, after all --for what it's worth) but, rather, how differently the race is run because FV does not get a good start. Assuming there's a speed duel between the two, the winner probably doesn't run 111.

[blackthroatedwind]

I understand the discussion, and am too tired to have it now, but all I was doing in this situation ( and I know you know this and are saying something totally different...and certainly worthy of discussion ) was explaining why the 111 given the winner ( however " earned " ) was a viable and easily defendable final number in this particular case.

It's also worth adding that Missile Motor was loose on the lead in his prior start, on a track kind to speed, and earned an 89.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Scav

I agree it isn't fun, but nothing will ever change. It won't change until they go to a baseball type penalty system, and horse racing gets one governance system, otherwise, we are all wasting our breath.

It is amazing how many baseball players SHRUNK in a matter of months because of the impeding penalties on cheaters, it is equally amazing how the HR numbers lowered for the comedy players. I think the same would happen if those type of stances were taken in horse racing

I'm all for criminal charges for those using illegal methods such as Biancone allegedly did. In my opinion those that use those methods are conspiring to FIX the outcome of a sporting event in which bets are taken. This is a felony. If such harsh steps were taken this stuff would end really quick.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by jms62

I'm all for criminal charges for those using illegal methods such as Biancone allegedly did. In my opinion those that use those methods are conspiring to FIX the outcome of a sporting event in which bets are taken. This is a felony. If such harsh steps were taken this stuff would end really quick.

This will never happen because the feds (or local law enforcement for that matter) will never attempt to treat horse racing with the same legitimacy as baseball.

If Dutrow can win a high profile stakes race falsifying track location and horse workout performance to the detrement of the betting public with nary a stir from law enforcement for a clear attempt to committ mutilple felony's then you can imagine why you will never see crimminal penalties for race fixing for drug cheats.

[jms62]

Jersey did it in 2006. http://www.njsp.org/news/pr040406.html. A class action suit by all those damaged (losing tickets) would also deter this kind of activity. Unfortunately those suffering damages are too splintered a group and the damages aren't enough for someone to take up the charge. I would also like for trainers that are on suspension to have all of their horses banned for the remainder of the meet at the track where the offense takes place. No passing the string on to an assistant. This means that all horses that are being trained by the trainer at the time of the infraction are banned for the meet. The effect of this could be for owners putting pressure on trainers to win clean. I think a lot of the problems are due to the pressures owners put on trainers to win. Same mentality as Wall Street . Win at all costs regardless of the ethics used. Just some of my lame brained ideas but drastic measures are needed here.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I just took a look at the race and have a few comments/questions for you.

I see where Fleet Valid's number ranges from 75 to 108. And he's run over 100 in half of his previous six figures. Is this type of range typical? (Doesn't appear so, given the ranges of the other horses in the race.) If I were doing numbers, I would probably think that looking at this horse's performance would be the best way to approach the winner's number, as FV is the only one that's run close to the winner's number in the past. But, I don't do numbers and I believe that the winner had an advantage that probably goes a long way towards explaining his number.

I didn't take a look at the running style of the other horses in the race but it appears as if Fleet Valid likes the front. He got slammed coming out of the gate in this race, however, and, then, clearly didn't like the dirt being kicked in his face on the backstretch. So much so, that the jock had to swing him outside horses. Then, he was in tight early stretch, and had to wait a bit for room.

Now, the interesting question is not whether FV is able to run with the winner in the lane (his previous peak was 108, after all --for what it's worth) but, rather, how differently the race is run because FV does not get a good start. Assuming there's a speed duel between the two, the winner probably doesn't run 111.

To get back to this, I had the exact same thoughts after the race, right after I threw my TV out the window when Introspect couldn't hold second due to the obvious stress of his dream suckup trip.

While its hard to imagine Missile Motor wouldn't have won, the race would have to have been run differently, and had the two hooked up in a duel the results could well have been different. However, Missile Motor has rated effectively in the past, and considering his effort it's hard to believe he wouldn't have won simply stalking Fleet Valid. But, considering most outlying wet track efforts are earned loose on the lead, I can't argue that at least the final figure might well have been different.

Taken as an isolated incident, Missile Motor's outlandish effort probably would fall into the outlyer ( on a wet track ) category. However, considering the number of similar performances from this barn, that never seem to be repeated, I have trouble viewing it as such. Take second time starter Lovely Isle's effort last week ( by the way, contrary to reports, Frankel does not have her ). Sure, a second time starter could improve dramatically, and in isolation I suppose this 101 Beyer figure might be another outlyer as well, but how many outlyers can one barn have before it becomes an inexplicable phenomenon?

[Riot]

Taken as an isolated incident, Missile Motor's outlandish effort probably would fall into the outlyer ( on a wet track ) category. However, considering the number of similar performances from this barn, that never seem to be repeated, I have trouble viewing it as such.

Let us know what the positive comes back for http://rulings.racing.state.ny.us/frm_Rulings.aspx

[blackthroatedwind]

Wishful Tomcat received a 101 Beyer figure for his NY Bred Maiden victory in his sixth career start. Previous dirt high? 70.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

To get back to this, I had the exact same thoughts after the race, right after I threw my TV out the window when Introspect couldn't hold second due to the obvious stress of his dream suckup trip.

While its hard to imagine Missile Motor wouldn't have won, the race would have to have been run differently, and had the two hooked up in a duel the results could well have been different. However, Missile Motor has rated effectively in the past, and considering his effort it's hard to believe he wouldn't have won simply stalking Fleet Valid. But, considering most outlying wet track efforts are earned loose on the lead, I can't argue that at least the final figure might well have been different.

Taken as an isolated incident, Missile Motor's outlandish effort probably would fall into the outlyer ( on a wet track ) category. However, considering the number of similar performances from this barn, that never seem to be repeated, I have trouble viewing it as such. Take second time starter Lovely Isle's effort last week ( by the way, contrary to reports, Frankel does not have her ). Sure, a second time starter could improve dramatically, and in isolation I suppose this 101 Beyer figure might be another outlyer as well, but how many outlyers can one barn have before it becomes an inexplicable phenomenon?

Agreed. Especially that MM would've been able to rate, if need be.

I went back and looked at MM's MED races after my initial post. I was struck by how good his race on 11/08 was. He does something in that race, that to knowledge, is very rare on the dirt: he accelerates through the lane, running the 6th 1/8th (nominally) faster than the 5th one. And, this isn't after running ridiculously slow early fractions.

Now, I don't really pay attention to dirt races that much, and I certainly don't follow speed favoring tracks like the Meadowlands, but while this phenomenon happens, I'd venture, 10% or so of the time on the turf (in sprints), and is a powerful indicator for betbacks, I've only seen it once on the dirt otherwise. It'd be interesting if someone with a database were able to check it out for MED sprint races. (I looked at Chatain's race, for example, and he was slowing down the last 1/8th ---pace differences aside, of course.)

In any event, clueless as I might be when it comes to speed figures, I'd venture that MM's MED race 11/08 was probably ALOT better speedwise than some might think. Thus, his 'much improved' effort could've been anticipated. How much of an improvement, I'll leave to the figuremakers, however.

While it's nice to RETRODICT, sure wish I'd had this info BEFORE MM's last race.