They'll be Hanging From the Rafters at the Big A Friday

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Nope.

When you get home from work, google him for videos...he was exciting to watch!

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Nope.

Oh boy. You should try to find some old film. He was unreal. I believe he was like 28-30 lengths behind the leader in the 58 SA Derby and he ended up winning by 3. I heard a story once that Silky trailed the leaders by something like 40 lengths in a 6.5 furlong race and won by a neck. Not sure if this is true, but it sounds good to me

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Gander

While his Belmont win was going 12F, I dont necessarily think the longer he goes the better. Unless he gets significantly faster, hes going to have a problem winning any race over 9F against really top handicap horses. That Belmont field was brutal, worst ever assembled.

Hes kind of a tweener to me. Not fast enough to win at a mile, isnt ever going to capitalize on a field as weak as the Belmont Stakes again going long. May be a decent grade 3/ high priced allowance horse.

Take the bluff set the pace early after a stumble and had a 4 length lead at the 1/8 pole. He won by a length and a half. You can't possibly think that another panel would not have factored into the finish.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

BTW, nice call on Take the Bluff

Thanks. The track got frighteningly speed favoring, especially in routes, as the day wore on.

The routes on the inner are beginning to feel like routes at Keeneland pre-polytrack.

[GinaIsWild]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Thanks. The track got frighteningly speed favoring, especially in routes, as the day wore on.

The routes on the inner are beginning to feel like routes at Keeneland pre-polytrack.

Just like every other day the last month, winter racing in NY, that's the way it is, be in front at the 1/2 mile pole or you can't win.

[KirisClown]

Here's the replay... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r636kJEnmGs

[Gander]

You can't possibly think that another panel would not have factored into the finish.

Honestly, no I dont think it would have mattered. I thought Jazil was going to win this race easily today but there was absolutely no way for me to bet a race like this. If he had been 6/5 I may have made a token bet.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by KirisClown

Here's the replay... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r636kJEnmGs

THANK YOU!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Jfeld

Just like every other day the last month, winter racing in NY, that's the way it is, be in front at the 1/2 mile pole or you can't win.

It has been poorly maintained this year but in year's past the inside bias has not been as prevelant as it has been at this meet.

I guess it's good if you win and bad if you lose. Hopefully it will even out and we can get more good bet backs off wide to nowhere trips.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He's never really been a closer, he just runs the same speed all race so passes tiring horses at the end. Looks like he isn't any faster that he'll be a factor at 8.5 to 9 furlongs. Time to start building a campaign around the 9.5 to 10 furlong stakes. Can't believe he went at less than even money here.

That is the definition of a closer. Think about this:

You have a 6F sprint, with two main contenders; a deep closer and a frontrunner.
The frontrunner goes :22, :46, 1:12 and wins by a neck.
The closer is 7 lengths at the first call, 4 at the 2nd call, and loses by the neck.
What fractions did the front runner run? :22, :24, :26.
What fractions did the closer run? approximately :23 1/5, :23 2/5, :25 2/5.

Nearly all horses decelerate on the dirt, very few can and do accelerate at the end of the race. It's an optical illusion that the "closers" are actually running faster at the end than they did at the beginning... they're just decelerating at a lesser rate.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I've done some work on the race and the actual contenders are few. There's also some pace. Now, if Jazil was a genuine " Grade 1 horse ", whatever the hell that is, then he would dominate this crew. However, he has hardly proven his superiority, but he still is supposed to be a major factor here. While I still want to go through it some more there are only really two other possible winners on paper, assuming the race doesn't scratch down to nothing, and they are maybe Take the Bluff and definitely Admiral's Arch.

first rate btw..right on point...5 rattles to you..

[Slewstoo]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Sun King

I didn't know you were such a Sun King fan Sightseek

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

That is the definition of a closer. Think about this:

You have a 6F sprint, with two main contenders; a deep closer and a frontrunner.
The frontrunner goes :22, :46, 1:12 and wins by a neck.
The closer is 7 lengths at the first call, 4 at the 2nd call, and loses by the neck.
What fractions did the front runner run? :22, :24, :26.
What fractions did the closer run? approximately :23 1/5, :23 2/5, :25 2/5.

Nearly all horses decelerate on the dirt, very few can and do accelerate at the end of the race. It's an optical illusion that the "closers" are actually running faster at the end than they did at the beginning... they're just decelerating at a lesser rate.

Than how do you differentiate a "plodder"?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Gander

This distance is perfect for him and these arent very good horses.

If this race was any farther, it may be harder for him to win. The pace would be slower. People confuse closers with having more success the farther they go. Thats not right at all. Jazil will get a nice pace to run into and Jara obviously knows this horse. While he may be better next time out, he is good enough on talent alone to run these down and by open lengths.

This is a very weak field for his return.

The part in bold is excellent and in my opinion, exactly right. The second part about him being good enough is, again, in my opinion, totally wrong. This is one of the worst horses ever to win a TC race and he's totally overrated. He's got no speed whatsoever and I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that he'll never win another grade one race. Actually, I'll take it a step further and say he'll never win another stakes race of any grade. By midyear, when he's retired, he'll still just have the same number of wins on his record that he's got now.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Am I the only one that saw the 2 horse stumble at the gate, get his legs under him, take the lead around the mile - 7/8th pole and hold it until he had nothing left while Jazil maintained a fairly constant pace the whole trip, closing in stretch down to the final 1/16th to within 2 lengths?

Not making excuses, but even McLaighlin said he needs more distance - from NYRA website:

>>> “We anticipated this a little bit. You have to be concerned with the tight turns and backing up to a mile and a sixteenth. He wants farther; we know that."<<<

This race goes 1 1/8 instead of 1 1/16th and you've got a different winner. Not that that's anything to celebrate.

But this logic that Jazil would have fared worse going longer is incomprehensable...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that he'll never win another grade one race.

Not much of a tree you're venturing onto there Captain Obvious.

I also think Jazil is a better horse than you think. Grade 1? He's a dog...probably less likely than Strong Contender....but he has an outside shot. The reason your other bold prediction MAY come true is he may make too many starts where he doesn't belong. But I think if given a fair shot in reasonable starts he will surprise you.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not much of a tree you're venturing onto there Captain Obvious.

I also think Jazil is a better horse than you think. Grade 1? He's a dog...probably less likely than Strong Contender....but he has an outside shot. The reason your other bold prediction MAY come true is he may make too many starts where he doesn't belong. But I think if given a fair shot in reasonable starts he will surprise you.

I realized the first part was too easy so that's why I added the second. I don't think he has any shot to win though because I don't see them as the type to take steps backwards with him once they take him back to stakes competition. I think he'll either race in big races and lose and then be retired or he'll race in big races and lose and keep running. But I don't see them running him in cheap stakes races.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Than how do you differentiate a "plodder"?

Jazil :P

Just kidding. A plodder is a closer who never wins!

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

Jazil :P

Just kidding. A plodder is a closer who never wins!

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

That is the definition of a closer. Think about this:

You have a 6F sprint, with two main contenders; a deep closer and a frontrunner.
The frontrunner goes :22, :46, 1:12 and wins by a neck.
The closer is 7 lengths at the first call, 4 at the 2nd call, and loses by the neck.
What fractions did the front runner run? :22, :24, :26.
What fractions did the closer run? approximately :23 1/5, :23 2/5, :25 2/5.

Nearly all horses decelerate on the dirt, very few can and do accelerate at the end of the race. It's an optical illusion that the "closers" are actually running faster at the end than they did at the beginning... they're just decelerating at a lesser rate.

And the difference is that you will never see Jazil throw those sort of fractions. His best races have all been run in fractions between 24 and 25 the whole way. The mistake today was in taking him back too far early so that he was running slower than 25. It is a total oversimplication to categorize any horse who starts from deep as a closer. There are two totally different groups of horses that start near the back. The closers are the ones that have a late kick that will be better or worse depending on how fast they are forced to go early. The plodders are the horses that just run the same speed the whole way. You have late pace in your figures. You have to have seen that there are certain of your closers that have a late kick that totally varies dependant on how fast they go early and others, like Jazil, that are remarkably similar every race. Those ones actually probably have their late speed improve with added distance in your figures since finishing between 24 and 25 at 12 furlongs is much more impressive than at 6 furlongs.