The Belmont Stakes...the double Bunny

[Secretriat34]

how do you defeat Justify..

he almost lost at 9.5f, chasing one bunny..

2 bunnies at 12f...no triple crown for the colt baffert thought would be a 6f sprinter.

should you run both bunnies at one time from the gate..or chain them..

one bunny for 4 f..
.....................then a second bunny for the next 5 f
.................................................. .........then AUDIBLE catches him..and wins in Elmont

[MaTH716]

Yeah, but I personally feel like he doesn't need the lead to win.

He went in Kentucky because the derby is all about track position.

He went in Maryland cause I honestly think that Good Magic is the only horse they thought that could beat them.

If the pace scenario benefits them Mike will go, if they put some rabbits in, I think he will be forwardly placed but not necessarily duesling on the lead.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Yeah, but I personally feel like he doesn't need the lead to win.

He went in Kentucky because the derby is all about track position.

He went in Maryland cause I honestly think that Good Magic is the only horse they thought that could beat them.

If the pace scenario benefits them Mike will go, if they put some rabbits in, I think he will be forwardly placed but not necessarily duesling on the lead.

Looking at the probables for the race so far I can't see how Justify is not in the lead. If his conditioning is there he will wire unless someone comes in with early speed and presses him.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Looking at the probables for the race so far I can't see how Justify is not in the lead. If his conditioning is there he will wire unless someone comes in with early speed and presses him.

I'm shocked that Noble Indy is not among the ones being considered. He seemed to have more early speed than any of these others that Steve listed as probable. Not that I think he could win, but could help the others from the Pletcher barn.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by cal828

I'm shocked that Noble Indy is not among the ones being considered. He seemed to have more early speed than any of these others that Steve listed as probable. Not that I think he could win, but could help the others from the Pletcher barn.

WinStar.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

WinStar.

I'm feeling that if Audible and Noble Indy are kept out of the Belmont in order to help Justify's chances, then there ought to be an asterisk next to Justify's TC, should he in fact win it versus the reduced competition.

[moses]

Originally Posted by cal828

I'm shocked that Noble Indy is not among the ones being considered. He seemed to have more early speed than any of these others that Steve listed as probable. Not that I think he could win, but could help the others from the Pletcher barn.

I just don’t see who the “bunnies” are. If anything, Audible is one. Bravazo, maybe, could push the early pace but I think the Derby and Preakness indicate a different running style from him than we’ve seen in his other races.

Then you’ve got mostly closers after that so unless one of them changes their running style, I see Justify being able to pretty easily control the race.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

I just don’t see who the “bunnies” are. If anything, Audible is one. Bravazo, maybe, could push the early pace but I think the Derby and Preakness indicate a different running style from him than we’ve seen in his other races.

Then you’ve got mostly closers after that so unless one of them changes their running style, I see Justify being able to pretty easily control the race.

Not among the listed possibles--which doesn't preclude 11th hour entrants--, but Steve Asmussen has 3 potential entrants with decent early speed that might enhance the chances of his main hope Tenfold, who by the way has a good cross pedigree-wise for the Belmont. He's by Curlin, who has a winner, a place horse, and a show horse in the past 5 Belmonts and is out of a mare by Tapit, who has 3 winners, a place horse and a show horse in the same 5 runnings.

The 3 horses:

1) Reride: 3rd a long way back in Dubai, but a double stakes winner this year while flashing some speed; he's worked twice since returning from overseas; same owner as Tenfold

2) Tap Daddy: campaigned as a turf horse, but he's raced in 2 off-the-turf races and attended the pace in both, just missing in the Bourbon at Keeneland, and romping this weekend at Pimlico in the James Murphy; also chased the ill-fated Mourinho in the Smarty Jones; same owner as Tenfold and same sire as Justify

3) Title Ready: he followed the Ax Man merry-go-round this weekend in the Sir Barton, but prior to that was the pacesetter in the Rebel (which featured another Asmussen colt in Combatant); owned by Charles Fipke who is not shy about starting long shots in the Classics...at least the one's trained by Dallas Stewart...

[songbird]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Looking at the probables for the race so far I can't see how Justify is not in the lead. If his conditioning is there he will wire unless someone comes in with early speed and presses him.

i think Baffert will use the same strategy he did with Pharoah: put him on the lead and catch him if you can