Early Breeders' Cup Projections...

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

As dominating as Gorella's Beverly D was, one thing we are forgetting about is she closed into a very fast pace that day. In my opinion it helped her get the 1 3/16. They went 23 and 1, 46 and 4 and 1:11 flat for the first 3 quarters. By comparison, the million went 24 and 3, 50 and 1, 1:15 flat. Gorella would have been nowhere had she run in the million, and I doubt she will get a pace like that again in the F&M turf. Her best shot is in the mile in my opinion.

DaHoss,

I would never compare times from different races on Million day...that'll get you in trouble....Showing Up ran a much faster time than Cacique did yet Cacique ran by him like he was standing still in the Man o'War the other day...and two years ago Kitten's Joy ran faster than Powerscourt when winning the Secretariat, but we found out which horse was difinitively better the next year in the Million.....don't always judge times....

Also, I'd like to point out that Film Maker, whom many believe is definately in the top 5 turf fillies and mares maybe in the world, closed into that same fast pace yet she was still no match for Gorella who was closing with strides that were 2-to-1 better than Film Maker's....and she won easily under the wire..

I'm telling you, I'd bet ANYTHING 1 3/8 miles would not be an issue with her....

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

I think the picture she was referring to him about his eyes is where he was focused and looking intently at something, his eyes were wide and he looked surprised, of course me being an Arabian breeder we love that look, it accentuates a lovely face, our magazines are full of stallions snorting and blowing and looking so alive! It's part of their beauty to me. I've never been a walk, trot, stumble kind of Quarter Horse fan, give me the hotbloods anyday!

You should see some of the Quarter Horses hunters/jumpers and dressage horses that I ride. Why, some of them are more hot-headed than some of the Arabs that I've ridden! In fact, the Anglo-Arab mare that I once owned behaved 10 times better than my Quarter Horse does now...LOL! No, I know how rambuctious the halter Arabs can be. I was at a Regional Arab show practicing judging once in Raleigh, NC, and a darn Arab stallion reared up, fell backwards, and rolled over. He was the most correct horse in the class though, and in halter, you know that it doesn't matter if they act up so long as they are still long enough for the judge to get a good look at them. He stood right back up as if nothing had happened and won the class!

I too like those bright burning eyes that Bernardini has. He is a very mature and regal looking horse. His eye reminds me of the Slew's eye. I think that Bernardini epitomizes the "look of eagles". I'm also pretty sure that he is probably a mean and rambuctious horse, but highly intelligent. He sure is beautiful and can run though which is all that matters. Champion screams out at you when you lay eyes upon him.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

I think the picture she was referring to him about his eyes is where he was focused and looking intently at something, his eyes were wide and he looked surprised, of course me being an Arabian breeder we love that look, it accentuates a lovely face, our magazines are full of stallions snorting and blowing and looking so alive! It's part of their beauty to me. I've never been a walk, trot, stumble kind of Quarter Horse fan, give me the hotbloods anyday!

And that's probably why I don't like the way he looks. I was never big on Arabians. (No offense.) I'm not a QH person either, but nothing beats a horse with wideset liquid eyes. (Kind of like Barbaro. )

[Danzig]

Juvenile Fillies: Point Ashley
Juvenile: chief officer
Mile: aragorn
Distaff: pine island
F & M Turf: ouija board
Sprint: back to ya on this one...
Turf: cacique
Classic: see sprint above!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'll trust Patrick's judgement. I think the added distance is a HUGE concern and to just assume that she will have that explosive kick regardless of the distance is a mistake.

The mile could be tougher, though I don't think the European contingency is considered all that tough this year ( let's see if George Washington can rebound to his pre-injury form ), but racing at the proper distance is FAR mre important than worrying about the possibly minor difference in field quality. Anyway, Ouiji Board could well be tougher than any Euro in the mile, and the same owner as Gorella has Lady of Venice.

have read in the past that it's hoped gorella could go in the mile, IF they felt lady of venice would have a good chance in the f+m...so one would have to think that if lady can't run, or they don't like their chances, that gorella would go in there instead of the mile.

also, people, please remember that this is the day the very best come together. no horse is guaranteed a win...cough cough rock of gibraltar....

i like gorella, love to watch her run, come in from way back and sweep by the field BUT i laugh every time i see her, or pretty much any horse, being 'given' an easy win by the fans. her style in particular is one that can see defeat, and with larger fields oftentimes does. don't get me wrong, i'll enjoy her winning as much as anyone, even more so if she does it against the boys--but please keep the hype down just a tad.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

have read in the past that it's hoped gorella could go in the mile, IF they felt lady of venice would have a good chance in the f+m...so one would have to think that if lady can't run, or they don't like their chances, that gorella would go in there instead of the mile.

also, people, please remember that this is the day the very best come together. no horse is guaranteed a win...cough cough rock of gibraltar....

i like gorella, love to watch her run, come in from way back and sweep by the field BUT i laugh every time i see her, or pretty much any horse, being 'given' an easy win by the fans. her style in particular is one that can see defeat, and with larger fields oftentimes does. don't get me wrong, i'll enjoy her winning as much as anyone, even more so if she does it against the boys--but please keep the hype down just a tad.

He told me recently she was headed to the mile but I suppose that could change. You can always pre-enter in both races and take a look. I can easily understand arguments for both races, and while I would tend to prefer her chances in the mile, the fact is she will most likely be a shorter price in the F&M Turf and there's a reasonable argument that you are simply supposed to run her where her odds are the lowest ( on the board that is ). On the other hand, the Mile has a bigger purse and is probably considered a more prestigous race. Either way I guess it's a good predicament to be in.

I will root for her because I like Patrick but I doubt I would bet her in either spot. You're point about her running style possibly hurting her in a big field is a good one, just look what happened last year when she was arguably best, and it is far from clear she is the best horse in the race anyway. I guess we can wait and see the field.

I think one of the reasons she gets so much hype is her name....honestly. Another reason is she is an exceptionally good horse.

[Danzig]

she is a good horse...seems many go gaga a bit more tho over a horse with her late running style. i'm not trying to take a thing away from her, she's been remarkable all year. but i do get a grin on my face when i see people suggest that she would easily handle the likes of ouija board!!

i think she'll go in the mile, really regardless of where lady of venice ends up....because it's the better fit for her, better for her to run a late closing on the board finish, or maybe even the win, than to end up running out of gas, and out of the money, against the gals while going long the first time.

i wouldn't be surprised tho to see lady of venice show up in the f+m turf if she's training well. we all know anything can happen.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm not comparing final times, I'm talking internal fractions. Gorella did have a fast pace to close into. Do you think she would have made a move like that if they were going the same fractions as they did in the million. And Showing Up's race was faster, but look at the final fraction in the million. They went the last 1/4 in 22 and change. When in comparison, Showing Up went the last quarter in 24 and 1, so an argument can be made that Cacique's race was better, especially when considering competition. I usually don't look to much into times when handicapping, but I definitely feel as though Gorella's performance was enhanced by the swift pace she was able to close into.

Comon, man.....Showing up ran like 15 lengths faster than The Tin Cup through the first six furlongs of the race, yet he still ran a faster overall time in the end....tomato/tomatoe, man....You still haven't answered the question of how Film Maker failed to match strides with Gorella closing into that fast pace.....Film Maker is a VERY respectable turf mare in the world with two very respectable BC F&M Turf finishes, yet Gorella's closing kick dwarfed Film Maker's and she won with complete ease at the wire.....just the facts....

Bottomline: I almost stake my ability to evaluate horse racing that Gorella will effectively get 1 3/8 miles....

Originally Posted by Danzig188

she is a good horse...seems many go gaga a bit more tho over a horse with her late running style. i'm not trying to take a thing away from her, she's been remarkable all year. but i do get a grin on my face when i see people suggest that she would easily handle the likes of ouija board!!

i think she'll go in the mile, really regardless of where lady of venice ends up....because it's the better fit for her, better for her to run a late closing on the board finish, or maybe even the win, than to end up running out of gas, and out of the money, against the gals while going long the first time.

i wouldn't be surprised tho to see lady of venice show up in the f+m turf if she's training well. we all know anything can happen.

I'm not sure I suggested she'd easily handle the likes of Ouija Board...I simply said that she'd have a better chance of winning the F&M Turf based on waht I currently know IMO....that said, Ouija Board will be tough BUT THERE IS NO BREEDERS' CUP RACE EVER RUN THAT WAS A WALK OVER...comon man....

The FACTS here are that she WOULD be lower odds in the F&M Turf rather than the Mile....just the facts....

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I'm not sure I suggested she'd easily handle the likes of Ouija Board...I simply said that she'd have a better chance of winning the F&M Turf based on waht I currently know IMO....that said, Ouija Board will be tough BUT THERE IS NO BREEDERS' CUP RACE EVER RUN THAT WAS A WALK OVER...comon man....

The FACTS here are that she WOULD be lower odds in the F&M Turf rather than the Mile....just the facts....

i didn't have you or your posts in mind when i typed my posts above. and i just said no race would be easy so i'm not sure why you felt you had to remind me that no race was a walkover. i do think that the f+m turf might be a bit easier than the mile for gorella...but ouija for one has been giving the boys fits all year, carrying more weight than she will in november at churchill (carrying as much or more weight than the males here as well!)...some of the others will be tough as well, and have been tried at that distance in the past. gorella facing top competition and a new, longer distance would be interesting to say the very least.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I also believe she can get the 1 3/8, I just think she has a better shot in the mile. I don't think the 1 3/8 is her best distance. She was better than Film Maker that day, and probably better most days. There's your answer. I just don't think she will win the F&M Turf.

I respect that, but I still am sticking with the feeling that the F&M Turf field will be less quality all the way through than the Mile field....we'll see....it IS boys instead of girls in the Mile.....I'd rather face girls ALL DAY than the best male Milers in the world, regardless of Ouija Board being in the F&M Turf...she is only 1 horse....

[Danzig]

i belive librettist will also be in the mile.
and don't forget angara for the f+m turf either. altho i think at this point they're all a slight step behind ouija board.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

And that's probably why I don't like the way he looks. I was never big on Arabians. (No offense.) I'm not a QH person either, but nothing beats a horse with wideset liquid eyes. (Kind of like Barbaro. )

Yeah, I like the face on Barbaro too. My QH yearling that I had to put down had a face like Barbaro. That's the look of the kind of horse you want to have as a show horse. In my experience, horses that have a face like Barbaro's are highly, highly intelligent, very people oriented, and very sweet. My QH yearling was the most intelligent animal that I had every worked. He had such a wonderful, loving, and curious personality. He would come trotting up to you as soon as you went to the gate of the pasture. I didn't think that horses could have those kinds of relationships with people before I got him. He left me too soon

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah she is only one horse, but there are other nice ones as well. Wait A While has been nothing short of brilliant on the turf this year, so I think she has a big shot. Aside from what is coming over from Europe, which at this point no one knows for sure, she really just has to deal with Aragorn, and maybe Miesque's Approval in the mile , although I think that one will be in way over his head.

There is talk of the Mile for What A While as well.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah I hear she is going in the Matriarch first.

The Yellow Ribbon...right?

Isn't the Matriarch part of the Hollywood Turf Festival on Thanksgiving weekend?

[repent]

I know this is kind of pointless b/c nothing starts until post position are drawn, but its fun anyway.

BCJF-
Point Ashley-easiest call of the day probably.

BCJ-
Circular Quay-undefeated, likes CD, will only want more ground

BCS-
Songster-Im not going all chalk

BCD-
Oonagh Maccool-see above statement, and besides, I think she is the best dirt female on the planet when right.

BCFMT-
Alexandrova-2nd easiest call of the day.

BCM-
Librettist-I cant find anything wrong with him.
can you?

BCT-
Deep Impact-if he runs, he wins. I honestly have no idea if its even a consideration for them. Im sure a lot of you can give me more info on this.
Hes the best middle distance horse on the turf I have seen this year, and its not even close.

If he does not run, then whatever Coolmore runs will win. English Channel is the best US based hope. He has already won a G1 at this track this year.

BCC-
Bernardini-total freak.
If Godolphin decides not to run him(for whatever reason), then I think David Junior stands an excellent chance here.


Repent

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Pent, I think I've read that Deep Impact's connections have zero interest in the Breeders Cup.

[repent]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Pent, I think I've read that Deep Impact's connections have zero interest in the Breeders Cup.

figured that was the case.
the Arc and then the Japan Cup?

seems to make the most sense.


Repent

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by repent

figured that was the case.
the Arc and then the Japan Cup?

seems to make the most sense.


Repent

Yep that seems to be the plan. I really wish they'd reconsider though because I'd love to see him in the BC. Looking forward to a great Arc though with him squaring off versus Hurricane Run, Shirocco, et al

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i didn't have you or your posts in mind when i typed my posts above. and i just said no race would be easy so i'm not sure why you felt you had to remind me that no race was a walkover. i do think that the f+m turf might be a bit easier than the mile for gorella...but ouija for one has been giving the boys fits all year, carrying more weight than she will in november at churchill (carrying as much or more weight than the males here as well!)...some of the others will be tough as well, and have been tried at that distance in the past. gorella facing top competition and a new, longer distance would be interesting to say the very least.

If they decide to run Ouija Board in the FmTurf, it is a racing certainty that she wins. Rather easily i might add.