3/36-28 (CD): Derby Future Pool 3

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This kind of **** points to exactly what's wrong with racing presently. I just spent 4 days playing 6 (or 7) tracks that were running races that either overlapped or were often within minutes of others. In other words, I couldn't really play the way I wanted to 'cause there was just no way to really handicap these races. And, today, I'm arguing trivial **** on a forum because there's NO racing. Any wonder why handle is down?

You're arguing because you're a fkn contrarian. A return of serve addict.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You actually wasted your invaluable time to see if there was any validity to his opinion?

Haven't you seen his posts in the past? He's never right.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...871#post620871

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

March 13th


1) 7 gets to the rail. The 2 and 3 both come off the rail to go by. The 7 also floats out. The 7 looks beat, but is guided back towards the rail. Then, voila, it takes off again.
2) 1 horse was taken off the rail..please note the particularly good effort by the #2 pig called Daniella Roth. She hugged the rail the whole way.
3) the #1 horse was taken outside by Smith, and failed out there. It's probably why he stayed inside with Zenyata later on.
4) turf
5)1
6)1
7)1 horse(a little pig runt) ran 2nd to Zenyata(who was also kept inside.)
8) turf
9) Interactif has a big inside move(against a soft pace leader) after breaking from the 2 hole
10) 21.53, 44.38 pace ..resulted in a 75-1 shot getting up late

You are clearly the type of person that screams bias when you cherry-pick certain aspects of the results.

A bias exists when horses who seemingly are incapable of doing something, do it with relative ease. The fact that the 50-1 shot for a notoriously good trainer held on for second (by a nose) after setting moderate fractions is not emblematic of a bias. Let's look at the races run on the Pro-Ride.

Race 1- The 3-1 winner races 2-3 paths off the rail the entire way. If this gold rail/speed bias existed then why didn't Swiss Emperor mop him up, he hugged the rail the whole way?

Race 2- The 3/2 winner again races 2-3 wide to the top of the stretch before holding on over a horse who switches to the wrong lead for the final 100 yards! How come this speed favoring track didn't help Daniella Roth, the pacesetter?

Race 3- This one is absolutely hilarious. The winner is never anywhere near the inside and in fact, the 2nd place finisher has one of the all-time perfect trips and still can't hang on. There's absolutely no way a person could watch this race and believe that this was a biased track. None. If you believe this track was biased then you need to contact the Little Red Feather people and let them know they have a stakes horse on their hands in Valkyrie Missile.

Race 5- A one-way speed horse (who was lone speed on paper) gets away with MURDER on the front end and holds on to win by a diminishing margin. The eventual 4th place finisher sits a perfect trip just behind the lead and has nothing in the stretch drive.

Race 6- The 13-10 favorite wins and despite breaking from the rail he races at least 3-4 wide from the half-mile pole in. How did leading rider Rafael Bejarano not get the memo that this track had a gold rail? Surely he wouldn't have taken his horse that wide if that was the case.

Races 7 and 9- I've watched both of these stakes races enough to know that they played true to form based on race flow. Dance to My Tune was given an uncontested lead and was able to set moderate fractions and narrowly held on for second over a slew of very average horses. Sidney's Candy waltzed along and Caracortado miraculously didn't have the same punch when he attempted to race against a poor setup.

Race 10- The one you conveniently dismiss because of the pace. Right, the pace completely collapsed. The $75 winner is never near the rail yet is still able to win.

If you think Caracortado is still a good horse then that's OK. Plenty of people have varying opinions right now. Just don't use something flimsy to back it up and try to turn something that you've made so clearly subjective into something objective.

NT

[SCUDSBROTHER]

OMG...Fine..Whatever...There is no effort strong enough to convince those who want to believe otherwise......... Have to write a check out to the Israeli Dude remodeling the kitchen (no lie.) Hate him so much I'm giving him 20k. It was more than a slow pace. It was much better inside. That's why the tiny rat is able to hold 2nd behind Zenyata. The rest of them just couldn't quite catch that happy lil pig down inside that day.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Race 2- The 3/2 winner again races 2-3 wide to the top of the stretch before holding on over a horse who switches to the wrong lead for the final 100 yards! How come this speed favoring track didn't help Daniella Roth, the pacesetter?

It did help her. She is a member of Roger Stein's pig collection. She was 25-1. 4th is great for that pig. Look at the winner. Announcer thought they had her beat. She "comes back" when she gets closer to the rail in deep stretch. It was better there.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Caracortado has about as much chance to win the Derby as me and the Fat Man in a horse suit.

Next.

Now THAT is something I would like to see.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

It did help her. She is a member of Roger Stein's pig collection. She was 25-1. 4th is great for that pig. Look at the winner. Announcer thought they had her beat. She "comes back" when she gets closer to the rail in deep stretch. It was better there.

So you're clinging to this desperate notion by pointing out that this horse hung on for 4th and that a 50-1 held onto second behind Zenyatta. I'm glad I at least completely spelled out what happened throughout the day so that no one here would actually believe your blanket generalizatin on what happened that day.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Caracortado has about as much chance to win the Derby as me and the Fat Man in a horse suit.

Next.

I really love it when the BIG GUNS AGREE WITH ME.

[Indian Charlie]

Andrew "Big Gun" Serling?

[Indian Charlie]

Or

Doug "Pea Shooter" Savantore?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So you're clinging to this desperate notion by pointing out that this horse hung on for 4th and that a 50-1 held onto second behind Zenyatta. I'm glad I at least completely spelled out what happened throughout the day so that no one here would actually believe your blanket generalizatin on what happened that day.

NT

Why is it desperate? I don't have any money on Caracortado. Because I think the horse is worth 50-1 means I'm desperate to explain that loss? Horses can overcome a bias. It's a tough task to overcome a slow pace, and a bias. Tap It Light COULDN'T DO IT. The horse who beat him in that 5th on 3/13 had never been able to hold on going 2 turns at Anita. No, not even with a crawling pace lead(maybe even a 1:14 or something.) So, you saw a big change that day. Then, you see Tap It L win a grade 3. Do you think that Bernstein trained horse is a grade 3 winning animal? I don't.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You haven't paid yet for that obnoxiously bad opinion you had last year. That horse was so bad I can't even remember its name. I wanted to say Chocolate Candy, but this horse was so bad that even Chocolate Candy would whip its ass.

That POTL or Dunkirk would win a Triple Crown Race. They both got 2nd place finishes. Your 2 never made it into a Triple Crown Race. Injuries happen.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Race 10- The one you conveniently dismiss because of the pace. Right, the pace completely collapsed. The $75 winner is never near the rail yet is still able to win.
NT

In the 10th race, a horse on the lead ran 21.53, and 44.38. Bias, or no bias, that's a horse running the fastest splits of the day (and for a 13k purse.) Considering she went way too fast, I think she held for quite a bit longer than one has a right to expect. A bias is an advantage, but cheap horses are still gunna tire if they run the fastest splits of the day.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I really love it when the BIG GUNS AGREE WITH ME.

can i get 100/1 on scuds derby picky from you please?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by gales0678

can i get 100/1 on scuds derby picky from you please?

Ill give you 70-1 on him right now, post a wager.... Im in.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Ill give you 70-1 on him right now, post a wager.... Im in.

want 100/1 , what do you think i am a chump

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by gales0678

want 100/1 , what do you think i am a chump

Ok you got it...
How much? And when does Joe get paid?

[RockHardTen1985]

Gales im serious man... You got 100-1. Whats the bet? How much and how does Joe get paid when this horse runs LAST.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Ok you got it...
How much? And when does Joe get paid?

50 for me and 50 for scuds , i'll put up the $100

i'll see you in saratoga this summer

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by gales0678

50 for me and 50 for scuds , i'll put up the $100

i'll see you in saratoga this summer

Saratoga is a long time to wait to get paid, if he wins, can I wait to Toga to pay you? Opening day either way?