Mockery of Sport?

[Gander]

I was thinking the same thing today about the odds of this Derby and discussing it with a friend. I didnt see many horses on the board yesterday that were actually good win bets. Certainly I would have loved to have my $200 win ticket on the horse who won and collected 10K, but 50/1 was a huge underlay (if there is such a thing at 50/1) on the winner when you think of the fact that Giacomo was much more accomplished and competitive with top horses than Mine the Bird, and yet pretty much the same price. Mine that Bird should have been over 100/1.

The horse I bet was a terrible price at 12/1- Hold me Back. General Quarters and Chocolate Candy were equally if not worse bets at 9/1. Friesan Fires was a huge underlay at 7/2 and so too was Dunkirk at 5/1. Papa Clem was a puzzling 13/1. Desert Party was a decent stab at 14/1. Thats about the only horse I thought was actually a good price.

[Riot]

If Borel had been on Hold Me Back, and gotten the same trip ... ? HMB made the duplicate move MTB did, only it started after the first turn on the backstretch, and therefor lasted only to midway through the second turn.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Riot

If Borel had been on Hold Me Back, and gotten the same trip ... ? HMB made the duplicate move MTB did, only it started after the first turn on the backstretch, and therefor lasted only to midway through the second turn.

I didnt like Kent moving like that so soon. Hold me Back is a one run closer. That move reminded me of the Street Sense move and he isnt that kind of horse where he can win a race in the middle. I would have rather have him made that move on the far turn, but Kent knows better than me and probably thought it was his best chance. He wasnt winning that race yesterday. I made a horrible bet in a race that was a horrible betting race.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Gander

I was thinking the same thing today about the odds of this Derby and discussing it with a friend. I didnt see many horses on the board yesterday that were actually good win bets. Certainly I would have loved to have my $200 win ticket on the horse who won and collected 10K, but 50/1 was a huge underlay (if there is such a thing at 50/1) on the winner when you think of the fact that Giacomo was much more accomplished and competitive with top horses than Mine the Bird, and yet pretty much the same price. Mine that Bird should have been over 100/1.

The horse I bet was a terrible price at 12/1- Hold me Back. General Quarters and Chocolate Candy were equally if not worse bets at 9/1. Friesan Fires was a huge underlay at 7/2 and so too was Dunkirk at 5/1. Papa Clem was a puzzling 13/1. Desert Party was a decent stab at 14/1. Thats about the only horse I thought was actually a good price.

Before the days of commingled pools, it was interesting to see the differences in win payoffs, especially among the different regions.

[DogsUp]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

first of all I love horseracing, and I love a good underdog, however I am afraid MTB winning may have made a mockery of the sport and the derby for many.The horse with the slowest of any type of speed figure, with the worst perceived "class", getting his ass beat at Sunland, with a trainer who was 1 for 32 for the year. And not only winning but destroying 18 other of the best of the best available. so poorly looked at breeding and conformation wise that he sold for $9500? Believe me I have owned and raced mostly claiming thoroughbreds for 30 years and I love the idea of this guy beating the heavy head millionaires but I think this will be one of the most single telling events to destroy the handle of racing for years to come.

Wasnt MTB champion 2 year old in Canada?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DogsUp

Wasnt MTB champion 2 year old in Canada?

yep. but this isn't hockey.

[Seattleallstar]

Originally Posted by DogsUp

Wasnt MTB champion 2 year old in Canada?

2 yr old champion in Canada, who couldnt beat mules in New Mexico

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

2 yr old champion in Canada, who couldnt beat mules in New Mexico

Could be he's a horse that only runs well on synthetic/soft, and can't do hard ground.

Could be (from his PP's) he had something wrong with him, and after his time off is now back hitting his stride.

[Seattleallstar]

Originally Posted by Riot

Could be he's a horse that only runs well on synthetic/soft, and can't do hard ground.

Could be (from his PP's) he had something wrong with him, and after his time off is now back hitting his stride.

Better just to chalk this up to a stupid fluke

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Riot

Could be he's a horse that only runs well on synthetic/soft, and can't do hard ground.

Could be (from his PP's) he had something wrong with him, and after his time off is now back hitting his stride.

Nevermind how slow his Candian wins were - the horses he beat in those races stink.

[Riot]

Exactly. We'll see. Right now I'm going with, "This was your two minutes of fame, kid, enjoy"

[GenuineRisk]

Sports Illustrated put Mine That Bird's Derby victory on the cover this week. I think this is the first time since Smarty Jones that horse racing has been the cover sport. And a lot of my non-racing fan friends have been talking about it- hell, the bartender at the wine bar I was at last night mentioned the $9500 price tag thing (not exactly accurate, but he knew it). For whatever reason, Mine That Bird has people aware racing is going on and seeing it in a positive light. That's a good thing, any way you look at it.

[Danzig]

one person at work mentioned the race. everyone else is asking me about hockey.

[Cannon Shell]

I thought only implausible things happened on polytrack?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Before the days of commingled pools, it was interesting to see the differences in win payoffs, especially among the different regions.

Yes, I was sorry to see that edge go away. There were some instances when you could have gotten a guaranteed win by betting all the entries, by choosing the best odds among Cal, NY and KY. The Cal horse would inevitably be bet down in Cal, boosting the odds of the East Coast horses, and the East Coast horses would be bet down in NY and KY, boosting the price on the Cal horse(s).

--Dunbar

[Kasept]

Was sending a number of Derby threads to the Triple Crown Archive this miorning and re-visited this one. Thought this evolved into a pretty interesting conversation on the Derby odds board... With Mine That Bird more than validating himself in Baltimore, thought this deserved a second read/life.

Is it now a maxim that Derby prices are unplayable as fair value win bets? Not that they weren't before, but looking back, it seems Derby exotics are the only worthwhile approach.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Was sending a number of Derby threads to the Triple Crown Archive this miorning and re-visited this one. Thought this evolved into a pretty interesting conversation on the Derby odds board... With Mine That Bird more than validating himself in Baltimore, thought this deserved a second read/life.

Is it now a maxim that Derby prices are unplayable as fair value win bets? Not that they weren't before, but looking back, it seems Derby exotics are the only worthwhile approach.

steve - i don't know about that MM at 22/1 in the derby offered some value no? he was coming off 2 wins and with IWR and QR and many on here thinking that POTN was no good i thought he odds were playable in the race.

to me general qtrs , a horse who he beat twice i believe before ky was 8/1 - based on nbc and espn hyping the mccarthy angle to me i thought that was a great bet against , i would let him beat me at 8 or 9 /1 all day

[gales0678]

one add on steve to the oaks/derby double , MTB was the 15th or 16th choice with RA no? in hindsight before the race should he have not been the highest paying will pay with RA?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve - i don't know about that MM at 22/1 in the derby offered some value no? he was coming off 2 wins and with IWR and QR and many on here thinking that POTN was no good i thought he odds were playable in the race.

to me general qtrs , a horse who he beat twice i believe before ky was 8/1 - based on nbc and espn hyping the mccarthy angle to me i thought that was a great bet against , i would let him beat me at 8 or 9 /1 all day

You had a personal tie to Musket Man so he was a price and value to you. And he was actually a mediocre win bet at 19-1. 25 or 30-1 was a more appropriate number for him. This is kind of my point... Most horses now on the Derby win line are at least 20-30% below their appropriate price.

General Quarters was 10-1 ($10.30), and yes, that was silly. 5-1 on Dunkirk and 10-1 on Chocolate Candy were low. 13-1 on Hold Me Back was less than acceptible... Etc..

Here's the Derby listed by final odds; finish; ML; My own personal 'acceptable' win price.

Note that for all the grief Battaglia takes, how accurate his line turned out to be for all but the middle priced (10-1 to 20-1) horses. He was right on with the three top choices and deadly with everything 30-1 or higher.

Betting choice-Finish-Odds:$1-ML-Personal Win $

1. (18) Friesan Fire 3.80 (5-1) 8-1
2. (11) Dunkirk 5.20 (4-1) 12-1
3. (2) Pioneerof the Nile 6.30 (4-1) 10-1
4. (5) Chocolate Candy 10.00 (20-1) 15-1 [My win selection]
5. (10) General Quarters 10.30 (20-1) 30-1
6. (4) Papa Clem 12.20 (20-1) 20-1
7. (12) Hold Me Back 12.70 (15-1) 20-1
8. (14) Desert Party 14.80 (15-1) 25-1
9. (3) Musket Man 19.00 (20-1) 25-1
10. (8) Regal Ransom 22.60 (30-1) 30-1
11. (15) Mr. Hot Stuff 28.40 (30-1) 30-1
12. (9) West Side Bernie 32.40 (30-1) 20-1
13. (6) Summer Bird 43.60 (50-1) 40-1
14. (17) Nowhere to Hide 45.50 (50-1) 200-1
15. (19) Flying Private 46.60 (50-1) 75-1
16. (13) Advice 49.00 (30-1) 150-1
17. (1) Mine That Bird 50.60 (50-1) 150-1
18. (7) Join in the Dance 51.40 (50-1) 50-1
19. (16) Atomic Rain 55.20 (50-1) 50-1

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

one add on steve to the oaks/derby double , MTB was the 15th or 16th choice with RA no? in hindsight before the race should he have not been the highest paying will pay with RA?

He was the 17th individual betting interest, so being 15th or 16th in the double is hardly a not exactly a discrepancy.