Horse of the Year?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but I'd rank Ouija Board's '05 FM Turf way above this year's mile.

Goldikova basically had Kip Deville, Precious Kitten, and Whatsthescript to beat along with the seemingly over the top Daytona and the run or none type Shakis, while Ouija Board had Film Maker, Megahertz, Wonder Again, Intercontinental, Karen's Caper, and if you want to stretch it, even Wend to beat (though she was never a real GI runner).

I'd take that latter cast as more rock solid than beating males in this year's BC. I think beating males only counts if there is a solid cast of males to beat lined up against you.

Brian, the 2004 race OB beat Megarhertz and Wonder Again, Moscow Burning set a slow pace that day. In 05 she actually finished 2nd to Intercontinental. Probably the best horse she ever beat in the BC was Wait A While in 06. She had a nice turn of foot and her longevity is a plus also, as for Goldikova I do think there is something to be said of a 3 yr old filly beating older horses, but more it's the way in which she did it, her turn of foot arguably was more impressive than any of Ouija Board's BC races. There's no denying both are super nice fillies and maybe I am in the minority here but I'd take her race over any of Ouija Board's in a second.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm trying to keep in mind that you're comparing bc races, not the horses...because ouija board was a special horse. i'd also think that everyone expected both of these gals to win due to ability in the one(OB), and the competition, or lack thereof, facing the other.

Contrary Danzig, I do have a great deal of respect for Ouija Board, she danced alot dances and more times than not she always showed up and accounted herself well. Her connections definitely took chances with her and I think she is well respected for that and deservedly so!

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Hysterical Lady couldn't warm Zenyatta up on any surface.

I have a REALLY hard time seeing Zenyatta beating Hystericalady in the Fleur de Lis, Delaware Handicap, or Molly Pitcher in 2008.

[hi_im_god]

i think someone let mort read the last 2 pages here and that's what really offended him.

[dagolfer33]

Curlin for HOY, grudgingly. In a side vote, best horse to never race in Louisiana this year who is still in training...Costa Rising.

[Theatrical]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

In a fairly run race, with a legit pace, this is probably true. But if that Lady's Secret of this year had been run on dirt, I truly believe that Zenyatta would have a loss on her record.

;


I believe you need to go back and look at the Lady's Secret on youtube. There was no way Zenyatta was going to have a loss in that race. Dirt or otherwise.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Theatrical

;


I believe you need to go back and look at the Lady's Secret on youtube. There was no way Zenyatta was going to have a loss in that race. Dirt or otherwise.

I believe that, and this is not meant as a jab at you, but you have never shown any objectivity towards the way you view Zenyatta. Zenyatta is a far superior filly to Hystericalady but the conditions of that race (small field, clear lead, slow pace) would have given Hystericalady a clear advantage over Zenyatta on that day had it been on dirt. The fact that it was on synthetic, which took away greatly from Hystericalady's ability, made that race much more deceptive than it actually was. The easy that it appeared Zenyatta won with was because of the surface. That was evidenced not in how Zenyatta beat Hystericalady but in how Hystericalady was barely able to beat out the third place horse, a horse that she's far superior to. I don't need to look at the race again to see what I saw the first 5-10 times that I've seen it.

[letswastemoney]

The only way to know for sure is if they both ran on a dirt surface together, which won't happen since HL is likely retired.

[Danzig]

maybe zenyatta can continue her ways, and steal the record from that monster, peppers pride. that would make mirajas day for sure!

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Stickhorse

Zenyatta is a big fav of mine but it is going to be so difficult to keep her streak alive. She could have easily lost the day of the Vanity. It was a true test for her heart to win on a day when she was not at her best.

Here is a predicition for '09:
Cocoa Beach will be the first to beat Zenyatta.

They will likely never race against each other, when is it supposed to happen, Zenyatta is likely to be in the classic next year if she is still unbeaten.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

They will likely never race against each other, when is it supposed to happen, Zenyatta is likely to be in the classic next year if she is still unbeaten.

i doubt it.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

In a fairly run race, with a legit pace, this is probably true. But if that Lady's Secret of this year had been run on dirt, I truly believe that Zenyatta would have a loss on her record.

so what your saying is Zenyatta is not as good on dirt (which is wrong, watch her Apple Blossom) and that is some event that a fluke happens, like 24 and 50 that should could beat her. I guess we can lay out any scenario and guess at what COULD happen. Fact is they raced twice and HL got embarrassed like a second rate horse (which she is really if you want to look historically) and Zenyatta is a very good horse in any generation, and frankly on any surface (I would love to see her on turf).

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

so what your saying is Zenyatta is not as good on dirt (which is wrong, watch her Apple Blossom) and that is some event that a fluke happens, like 24 and 50 that should could beat her. I guess we can lay out any scenario and guess at what COULD happen. Fact is they raced twice and HL got embarrassed like a second rate horse (which she is really if you want to look historically) and Zenyatta is a very good horse in any generation, and frankly on any surface (I would love to see her on turf).

not sure what you are talking about. I said HL is not as good on synth.

[Theatrical]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I believe that, and this is not meant as a jab at you, but you have never shown any objectivity towards the way you view Zenyatta. Zenyatta is a far superior filly to Hystericalady but the conditions of that race (small field, clear lead, slow pace) would have given Hystericalady a clear advantage over Zenyatta on that day had it been on dirt. The fact that it was on synthetic, which took away greatly from Hystericalady's ability, made that race much more deceptive than it actually was. The easy that it appeared Zenyatta won with was because of the surface. That was evidenced not in how Zenyatta beat Hystericalady but in how Hystericalady was barely able to beat out the third place horse, a horse that she's far superior to. I don't need to look at the race again to see what I saw the first 5-10 times that I've seen it.

Actually, I believe we could both be as you describe. Not a lot of objectivity, but for different reasons.
I realize Hystericalady favors dirt over any other surface. I know this. Her trainer knows this. Her owners know this. The gamblers know this. They still ran her on it. Analysis of races is great. However, sometimes one can get carried away by overthinking a particular race scenario to the point one's perspective is compromised by numbers, stats and what if's. This is a point where you and I differ greatly.

[10 pnt move up]

One last thing on the HOY

In 10 years you think they are going to be saying "remember the brilliant year Curlin had in 08'".....doubt it, what they are going to say is Curlin was a good horse but much better as a three year old in 07'

while in 10 years they will be saying remember the year Zenyatta had in 08' never challenged and undefeated.

just saying

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Theatrical

Actually, I believe we could both be as you describe. Not a lot of objectivity, but for different reasons.
I realize Hystericalady favors dirt over any other surface. I know this. Her trainer knows this. Her owners know this. The gamblers know this. They still ran her on it. Analysis of races is great. However, sometimes one can get carried away by overthinking a particular race scenario to the point one's perspective is compromised by numbers, stats and what if's. This is a point where you and I differ greatly.

Put it another way. I don't think there is a chance in hell that Indian Blessing could beat Curlin in a 10f race with a full field of horses. But put them together at 6f in a four horse field and she is the lone speed and she'd crush him. An extreme example for sure but just bringing out the point that race analysis is very important. Plenty of times in racing, the result is not as clear cut as it may seem at first glance.

In this particular case, you seem to be taking the defensive, as if I'm saying that Hystericalady is a better horse than Zenyatta is when I'm clearly not saying that at all. But I've seen way too many situations where an inferior horse is allowed total control of a race and beats a superior one. I believe that had the Lady's Secret been on dirt, that would have been the case this year. It has nothing to do with how good I think Zenyatta is.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Put it another way. I don't think there is a chance in hell that Indian Blessing could beat Curlin in a 10f race with a full field of horses. But put them together at 6f in a four horse field and she is the lone speed and she'd crush him. An extreme example for sure but just bringing out the point that race analysis is very important. Plenty of times in racing, the result is not as clear cut as it may seem at first glance.

In this particular case, you seem to be taking the defensive, as if I'm saying that Hystericalady is a better horse than Zenyatta is when I'm clearly not saying that at all. But I've seen way too many situations where an inferior horse is allowed total control of a race and beats a superior one. I believe that had the Lady's Secret been on dirt, that would have been the case this year. It has nothing to do with how good I think Zenyatta is.

I guess what is the point, that a hypothetical exists that could have beat her, we could do that an infinite amount of times with races and horses?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I guess what is the point, that a hypothetical exists that could have beat her, we could do that an infinite amount of times with races and horses?

Of course we could but my response was only to the statement that you made that Hystericalady can't warm up Zenyatta on any surface. I took that to mean that under no hypotheticals would HL have a chance and I don't agree with that.

[Theatrical]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Put it another way. I don't think there is a chance in hell that Indian Blessing could beat Curlin in a 10f race with a full field of horses. But put them together at 6f in a four horse field and she is the lone speed and she'd crush him. An extreme example for sure but just bringing out the point that race analysis is very important. Plenty of times in racing, the result is not as clear cut as it may seem at first glance.

In this particular case, you seem to be taking the defensive, as if I'm saying that Hystericalady is a better horse than Zenyatta is when I'm clearly not saying that at all. But I've seen way too many situations where an inferior horse is allowed total control of a race and beats a superior one. I believe that had the Lady's Secret been on dirt, that would have been the case this year. It has nothing to do with how good I think Zenyatta is.

There is nothing in this exchange that would put me on the defensive, KG. Simply a difference of opinion. If you wish to believe the results would have been different in the LS had it been run on dirt, please go ahead and indulge yourself. I think you are seriously underestimating how powerful Zenyatta is on the dirt. True, she's run on it once, but what a race that was. Lord have mercy. I don't doubt what you think of her, KG. We just see things differently. I'll just rock on in my non objective world where she is concerned and enjoy her.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Of course we could but my response was only to the statement that you made that Hystericalady can't warm up Zenyatta on any surface. I took that to mean that under no hypotheticals would HL have a chance and I don't agree with that.

It would take a hell of lot more then a slow pace and dirt....

the best way to do it is to lay down real fractions and finish, say 22 45 109 and 134

Azeri could do that, HL could not.