belmont weds full card

[hockey2315]

Did you see the 9 on the turn?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Did you see the 9 on the turn?

yeah, while the IDIOT was CIRCLING wide PREMATURELY, the 9 was inside and made the last run. so, while the 9 is ahead of luck to that point, LUCK bids before she does. Nice ride by Johnny V but he just got LUCKy

if the IDIOT sits with LUCK, and they actually run together in the lane, you're cooked.

and a real fine job of putting LUCK in a drive as well, by the idiot.

[hockey2315]

Did the JOCK blow it in LUCK'S other 14 RACES? The 9 tracked in 3rd on the inside, dropped back to 7th, then came wide to catch the loose 10. And I'm not gloating - I barely bet the 9 because I wasn't crazy about the price. . . I just like seeing you act like an idiot. . .

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Did the JOCK blow it in LUCK'S other 14 RACES? The 9 tracked in 3rd on the inside, dropped back to 7th, then came wide to catch the loose 10. And I'm not gloating - I barely bet the 9 because I wasn't crazy about the price. . . I just like seeing you act like an idiot. . .

carryover......

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Did the JOCK blow it in LUCK'S other 14 RACES? The 9 tracked in 3rd on the inside, dropped back to 7th, then came wide to catch the loose 10. And I'm not gloating - I barely bet the 9 because I wasn't crazy about the price. . . I just like seeing you act like an idiot. . .

You need to either STEP it up a bit when it comes to analyzing trips OR just bet your trainer angles
and try not to gloat with 5:1 lucky wins.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You need to either STEP it up a bit when it comes to analyzing trips OR just bet your trainer angles
and try not to gloat with 5:1 lucky wins.

Like I said - I wasn't gloating. . . it really had nothing to do with the 9. I just don't understand how anyone can bet a horse like Luck. . . especially at a low price. You can make excuses for horses with bad trips or bad jockeys, but at what point do you give up on a horse who might just be a professional loser? My trainer angles do pretty well - and I prefer them to trip handicapping because I think there are more sharp trip players than players who focus on trainers. But, I do incorporate trips in to my handicapping. . .

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I have no dog in the fight, but Can She Dance looked like she was at least a few lengths the best.

I completely agree. You needn't be even a novice racing fan to know that this filly was stopped horribly on the turn, lost quite a few lengths then had to re-rally. It was a very game performance.

I also had no dog in the fight, FYI, but I do think Luck is a pig.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Guys

Here's the chart for the race. Notice how everything running FORWARDLY between the 2nd and 3rd calls ran backwards from that point on; expect LUCK. Notice how the last fraction is FASTER than the previous one. Pigs don't accelerate the last split.

Now, while the horses the 9 had been running with were moving INTO the pace, the 9 was behind horses and backing up. She thus DIDN'T RUN at the key point of the race. Notice how the only horses running late are those that were BEHIND this group; and how the race fell apart late. Notice how the 9 pass ALL tiring horses. I contend that had the 9 been allowed to run with these horses, she runs better than the rest but doesn't beat LUCK. LUCK was behind her early, was rushed INTO the pace, opened up much too soon for a horse that doesn't like to win, was not roused in the stretch as she might've been, and still lost by a bob to a horse that got a fortuitous trip. She's not a hanger; she's just not a very brave horse that continually gets bad trips and is put into poor position.

Think about what I'm saying; look at the chart. Trust me, I realize it's counterintuitive but it's the correct assessment. It happens quite a bit in races.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Why this game is still beatable:

I miss a pick4 and you're all over it.

You're hyping Harlem Rocker and the Unbridled's horse and panning Pyro.

Yeah

you got this **** straight.

btw, it's 'CRUSHABLE'

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

She is the definition of a hanger. I realize that as a trip handicapper you get stuck on these horses that seemingly always get bad trips. I get it, I have a few of my own. But, the reality sometimes is the horse just doesn't want to win. You can't excuse opening up midstretch and getting caught by a filly that had to be stopped. Luck will eventually win, but she has had so many chances and always falls short.

true...imo

[the_fat_man]

The subtleties of trip handicapping.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I miss a pick4 and you're all over it.

You're hyping Harlem Rocker and the Unbridled's horse and panning Pyro.

Yeah

you got this **** straight.

btw, it's 'CRUSHABLE'

Just GIVING you BACK what you give me. . . I never RIPPED Pyro at all - I simply SAID that the FIG that he was originally assigned SEEMED a little OUT of WHACK with his ability LEVEL - and really out of whack WITH the My Pal Charlie's prior EFFORTS. Harlem Rocker's Withers BLOWS anything Pyro ever did out of THE water - especially WITH the way J Be K ran in his next start. The jury's STILL out on THE other horse. . .

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Just GIVING you BACK what you give me. . . I never RIPPED Pyro at all - I simply SAID that the FIG that he was originally assigned SEEMED a little OUT of WHACK with his ability LEVEL - and really out of whack WITH the My Pal Charlie's prior EFFORTS. Harlem Rocker's Withers BLOWS anything Pyro ever did out of THE water - especially WITH the way J Be K ran in his next start. The jury's STILL out on THE other horse. . .

Uh huh

There are 2 very interesting horses in tomorrow's 9th at BEL.

[hockey2315]

I like one in the fourth. . . I watched replays and everything.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I like one in the fourth. . . I watched replays and everything.

I just finished looking at replays for the 4th. Who do you like?

[hockey2315]

The 1. . .

[the_fat_man]

She was inside and getting whacked hard by Gomez, in a race where the top 3 at the qtr went 3-2-1 at the wire. So, either the closers aren't much or they didn't have a good setup. The horse that I thought was in the best stride late in that race was Whirling Agatha, who was widest of all in the lane (which was significant as pretty much everything else was towards the inner half of the track).

I initially thought this race was easy. Now I'm not so sure.

I don't think Tagg's horse wants the extra distance but she's probably the only horse in the race that could give Jelly Roll trouble early. Then again, if Luzzi rides her the way he did last time, she won't need to be pressed by anyone else. Don't you see Jelly Roll loose here?

[hockey2315]

Possibly but the 4 and 6 won't be too far behind. . .

[Bobby Fischer]

ROFLZ @ Sebastian Morales' premature ejac. of a ride on luck