7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

you are nuts...but that isn't attacking you like old school happenings.

She will open up at 1/2 and drift up to 2/1.

Don't get your panties in a bunch my friend, I'll slap you silly with my arlington program on wednesday

lay off the pipe man, she won't be 2:1.
the 8 was 6:5 last time and the five is an Assmussen horse that finished right behind the 8 last time so should take some money.
i think 4:1 is very possible, if not higher.

[AeWingnut]

so, if you won $1,000 playing poker last weekend would you then take that $1,000 and put it all on Sumwon's nose or whimp out and bet $400 to win and $600 to place
when you normal don't bet more than $300 on an entire weekend

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

lay off the pipe man, she won't be 2:1.
the 8 was 6:5 last time and the five is an Assmussen horse that finished right behind the 8 last time so should take some money.
i think 4:1 is very possible, if not higher.

Not a chance. Not with that 83 BSF staring people in the face and not with the DT contingent pounding her down.

2-1 or 5-2.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Not a chance. Not with that 83 BSF staring people in the face and not with the DT contingent pounding her down.

2-1 or 5-2.

Exactly. This is what I meant when I said her pps will stand out.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

so, if you won $1,000 playing poker last weekend would you then take that $1,000 and put it all on Sumwon's nose or whimp out and bet $400 to win and $600 to place
when you normal don't bet more than $300 on an entire weekend

Who you talkin' to, Willis?

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Who you talkin' to, Willis?

just posing the question

[Scav]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

so, if you won $1,000 playing poker last weekend would you then take that $1,000 and put it all on Sumwon's nose or whimp out and bet $400 to win and $600 to place
when you normal don't bet more than $300 on an entire weekend

Don't bet more then you can afford

[pointman]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I am just a huge believer in running styles, that the most talented horses have two dimensional styles and that the other depend on pace senarios to win, such as a front runner getting a clear lead or a closer getting a fall apart senarion with no other talented horses like him in the race.....I think the horse in question here has clearly demonstrated that she wants to be part of the pace, in fact I dont see a race where she has passed a horse in the stretch?

Then you obviously didn't see her last race, because Humble Janet passed her and she then passed Humble Janet back in the stretch after she changed her lead and almost got to Le Chateau. Humble Janet went on to finish 2nd in a GIII and Le Chateau 4th in the same race. And two back, after Girls Pearls passed her and looked to be flying home and opening up, Sumwon made up ground in the stretch and closed the gap coming back at that winner. Girls Pearls went on to win a stakes race. Neither is reflected in the PP's.

I am surprised that the Pletcher is favored over her as Sumwon appears to me to be the choice here, although not a surprise that people will jump on a Pletcher. I do have to say she may need a race in her and the surface is a a bit of a question mark for her, but I would love to see her go off third or fourth choice. Just think the bettors are smarter than that.

[Benny Leger]

Originally Posted by Scav

Here is one thing. Arlington has been mostly fair quite honestly. I have watched EVERY race that has been run over this new surface. At the start of the meet, closers were winning, but it has really evened out. When this Arlington surface gets some moisture in it, speed/rail has been winning, like the old surface. IMO, the only thing that has really changed is that we are having move competitive fields, with better horses in them, thus the racing has gotten better

sounds a lot like TP poly track. Speed does well when you add water. The hotter it gets, the slower it gets.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Scav

Don't bet more then you can afford

LOL!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

I see in tomorow's DRF that Sumwon is the consensus pick at Arlington for race 8.

[BPLichorowiec]

In my humble opinion, this race appears to be a 2 horse race. #3 Miss Peachtree figures to improve after the long layoff and race on this track. Last 2 works look OK too. #9 Sumwonlovesyou has the best Beyers and has shown to not be affected by poly. Assuming her sickness and missing a few days of training doesnt affect her, she should be right there gutsy as usual. Pletchers horse #8 Gazella seems a notch below and would not be getting this attention if not for being trained by Pletcher and ridden by RR. I'll pass. I'll probably be playing the 3,9 exacta and maybe triples keying the 3,9 with the 7 and 9. I know I'm not really going out on a limb here, with my picks, but atleast going against the ML favorite. Lets go SUMWON!

[The Bid]

I think Merrill Sheers horse Queen is very live. Otherwise I think you guys win. Good luck.

Chuck you said 3 months ago everyone thought she was overmatched in a 50 claimer at Churchill. She was. Shes a much better horse now than she was 3 months ago.

[Storm Cadet]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Just a quick scan of your figures it looks to me like Ms Peachtree is a great bet in here.

The pace is going to be fast, 24 quiren points by 4 runners! and ms peachtree off a long layoff made a winning bid before tiring, figures to be tighter for this one. She showed in that kee lose by a head she can handle a fast pace, something she will see today.

Honestly I dont see how the outside horse can win this, she takes back she is hooked wide, she guns she will be used early and there is a couple legit closers in the race.

Agree with CJ and you. As a customer of CJ's figs for years, I have tried to adapt his using the combined philosophies of TGRAPH and Cary Fotias of "Blinkers Off".

Her's my take on the Race with projected CJ performance figs:

2 P 75 Pairs up the previous poly fig.

3 P 84 First out in '07 runs a poly 78, should improve 2nd off 5 week freshner

1 E 78 Runs a consistant high 70's fig. Not good enough in this race.

4 EP 76 Ran a triple top on 5/19, bounced back to a 64. Never has run a route. Toss

1A E 81 Ran a New Pace Top last out on turf and paired up perf fig last out. Running the route last out helps with conditioning. Only neg is there is so much speed, E front runners will get cooked with 2 inside E horses and SWLY on her outside gunning for lead.

5 PS 73 Runs consistant low 70 poly numbers TOSS.

6 EP 82 Ran a triple top last out, normally a toss, but young horse with proper time off, I think she'll pair up that last out poly 82 and might keep upward improvement.

7 PS X TOSS

8 EP 80 Ran 4 straight improve PF figs. Small incremental improvements tell me improvement still possible to new top. Likes poly and route fitness a plus.

9. E 80 Has shown she needs to be at the lead or within a length be ITM. But there's a ton of E and EP racers here who might cook the speed horses down and set it up for closers. Outside draw doesn't help, but her 80 and nice improvement line is enough to keep in exotics. Will be rooting for her as always.

1. #3 4th place
2. #6 WON Pays $19.40
3. #1ASCR
4. #9/8 9 PLACE/8 SHOW

6-9 Ex pays 74.40
Tri Pays $218.40
Super pays $761.50 CJ Figs!

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

Agree with CJ and you. As a customer of CJ's figs for years, I have tried to adapt his using the combined philosophies of TGRAPH and Cary Fotias of "Blinkers Off".

Her's my take on the Race with projected CJ performance figs:

2 P 75 Pairs up the previous poly fig.

3 P 84 First out in '07 runs a poly 78, should improve 2nd off 5 week freshner

1 E 78 Runs a consistant high 70's fig. Not good enough in this race.

4 EP 76 Ran a triple top on 5/19, bounced back to a 64. Never has run a route. Toss

1A E 81 Ran a New Pace Top last out on turf and paired up perf fig last out. Running the route last out helps with conditioning. Only neg is there is so much speed, E front runners will get cooked with 2 inside E horses and SWLY on her outside gunning for lead.

5 PS 73 Runs consistant low 70 poly numbers TOSS.

6 EP 82 Ran a triple top last out, normally a toss, but young horse with proper time off, I think she'll pair up that last out poly 82 and might keep upward improvement.

7 PS X TOSS

8 EP 80 Ran 4 straight improve PF figs. Small incremental improvements tell me improvement still possible to new top. Likes poly and route fitness a plus.

9. E 80 Has shown she needs to be at the lead or within a length be ITM. But there's a ton of E and EP racers here who might cook the speed horses down and set it up for closers. Outside draw doesn't help, but her 80 and nice improvement line is enough to keep in exotics. Will be rooting for her as always.

r

you know me from cj's board as well, in fact I posted a poll about circuit speed bias today. I have an anonymous handle here.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

9. E 80 Has shown she needs to be at the lead or within a length be ITM. But there's a ton of E and EP racers here who might cook the speed horses down and set it up for closers. Outside draw doesn't help, but her 80 and nice improvement line is enough to keep in exotics. Will be rooting for her as always.

Her last race showed that she doesn't need the lead. She doesn't like to take way back but she doesn't need the lead. I think there is maybe 1 horse that is going to the lead and it ain't Sumwon. I picture Pletcher's horse pressing that one. Maybe it will be Sumwon doing that but as I have mentioned before she has run faster and is the class of the race. Her last two she really showed a lot of heart.

Hopefully she was able to get some rest after her trip and is ready to go. She could win by 3

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Her last race showed that she doesn't need the lead. She doesn't like to take way back but she doesn't need the lead. I think there is maybe 1 horse that is going to the lead and it ain't Sumwon. I picture Pletcher's horse pressing that one. Maybe it will be Sumwon doing that but as I have mentioned before she has run faster and is the class of the race. Her last two she really showed a lot of heart.

Hopefully she was able to get some rest after her trip and is ready to go. She could win by 3

That last race though was as candy and off the pace effort as you will find, she was able to sit a clear unpressured second and get a clear run at the lead. I think she topped out Beyer wise, she cant and wont improve on that with this setup. As a player arnt we suppose to discredit perfect trip beyers and give more credit to tougher trip beyers?

[FGFan]

Originally Posted by Danzig

and once again, i'll be yelling at the t.v. while my dog runs for the bathroom--cause she just knows i'm yelling at her!

That's funny, my dogs all get to barking while I'm yelling, they know something is happening, it becomes pandemonium.

[Storm Cadet]

1st race...I though early speed would hold but E and EP's just got closed out in final strides. Hoping E/EP's can hold on in the 8th race today!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by FGFan

That's funny, my dogs all get to barking while I'm yelling, they know something is happening, it becomes pandemonium.

well, i figure she's a catholic dog, as she has that guilt thing down pat.


i used to watch hockey a lot--had a beagle that would start howling when the organ would start up and we would yell charge.