Yikes

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I did? Please provide a link. I want to see this one.

I dont spend my time rehashing old threads. I apoligize if you took it personaly. What I was refering to was a post refering to how well Pletcher does on special days. Who started the thread I dont know, but several joined in on praising him. If you want to know who personally started the thread , Look it up. I dont make a post to make anyone look bad.Was just trying to try to point out how unfair we can be in knocking some and praising others for the same thing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

Dare I say he has a shot at the TC this year, if he gets past the Derby the Preakness should be cake for him, and he has the lungs to go 12 panels....

Just figured I would start that argument right now

I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for Street Sense to win the Triple Crown.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by jpops757

I dont spend my time rehashing old threads. I apoligize if you took it personaly. What I was refering to was a post refering to how well Pletcher does on special days. Who started the thread I dont know, but several joined in on praising him. If you want to know who personally started the thread , Look it up. I dont make a post to make anyone look bad.Was just trying to try to point out how unfair we can be in knocking some and praising others for the same thing.

Sorry buddy but you are just wrong here.
I started the thread about how many wins Pletcher was getting on Gulfstream's biggest days. My comment at that time was just this "Insane."
If you want to take that as "praising him" be my guest, but believe me that is not how it was intended at all. In fact NOBODY really "praised" him in the entire thread, and Pillow Pants didn't post a single thing on the thread.
So when you say to him "But when Pletcher does it you boast about how good he is" you are simply wrong.....if that was the thread you were talking about.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11462

[Grits]

Originally Posted by miraja2

We also don't have any idea really what the pace is going to look like. Could some horse sneak in out of the Lexington that has no chance of winning but could affect the pace scenario? Perhaps.
Will there be anymore drop-outs (like Notional)?
We just don't know.

I find it best to wait until the day before the Derby to come up with my bets. Otherwise you run the risk of becoming married to a wager that no longer makes sense by post time. Anyone who has already determined how they are going to wager on the derby is....in my opinon....seriously compromising their chances of cashing. Too many good handicappers get derby fever and let it overwhelm their usual good sense. I say, print out the past performances on Friday....study them like you always would.....watch the appropriate race replays, and place your wager accordingly.

You've written the best post that I have seen here regarding this Derby. And all Derbys for that matter.

Fans get severe cases of Derby Fever. Good handicappers can do the same. Professionals don't.

I'm reminded of the pro, my mentor who has been at this for over four decades and has taught me what I know about handicapping. His thought on the Derby is that "it's one race only, it's one day only, in a year of racing."

I'm surprised by the degree of absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.

Much of which has been stated before yesterday.

Three weeks before the race has been run, almost three weeks before the post positions are drawn.

This race is about post position, break, and trip. How someone has ANY of this concluded three weeks out is amazing.

The past performances and the replays are your aids after the post draw, where one has days, still, to draw sound opinion and make wagering decisions.

What does one do for an encore when the curtain draws after the race?

Taking a stand is excellent, but this far ahead of post draw? I'd rather wait for the goods to work with.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by pick4

On May 5th a lot of people are going to wager on the Derby that don't follow racing. They are going to see an undefeated horse who has crushed his competition thus far. I'll be shocked if Curlin is not the favorite in this race.
Look at the Derby Futures if you believe I'm wrong.

Where it gets interesting is are his 3 races thus far enough to give him the foundation to win the Derby? Trainers are going lighter on their horses more than ever and this year is no different. Last weeks darling Nobiz might be an overlay here. Any Given Saturday will be at least 10-1 and with 4 weeks to prepared, and diffferent race tactics he could give Pletcher his first TC win.
There's a lot information and variables to ponder over the next 3 weeks. Good luck in figuring it out.

I hope so.

[jman5581]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Since Steve Assmussen was the reason why I didn't cash my pick 3 and pick 4 ticket...and the pick 4 defeat was to a $60+ horse, I decided to track his phenomenal day at Oaklawn

Race 2 Squelch 1st
Race 3 Coach Que 2nd
Race 6 Colorado Jazz 1st
Race 7 Takedown 1st
Race 8 Brutal Attack 7th
Race 9 Cantallbechiefs 4th
Race 10 Nice Inheritance 2nd
Race 10 Cream Only 1st
Race 11 Curlin 1st

5/9 winners
5/8 races entered won

I hate to be skeptical of this achievement and I realize I made a mistake in my handicapping...but something about this just stinks.

and yet another track record that was set yesterday....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I hope so.

I'm thinking he can flirt with 20/1.

I mean, he's never even won a stake race in his life---and this will be a 20 horse field--where it's likely 8 of the 20 starters could be coming into the race off of either Grade 1 or Grade 2 wins....and that doesn't include probable post time favorite Street Sense.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Grits

You've written the best post that I have seen here regarding this Derby. And all Derbys for that matter.

Fans get severe cases of Derby Fever. Good handicappers can do the same. Professionals don't.

I'm reminded of the pro, my mentor who has been at this for over four decades and has taught me what I know about handicapping. His thought on the Derby is that "it's one race only, it's one day only, in a year of racing."

I'm surprised by the degree of absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.

Much of which has been stated before yesterday.

Three weeks before the race has been run, almost three weeks before the post positions are drawn.

This race is about post position, break, and trip. How someone has ANY of this concluded three weeks out is amazing.

The past performances and the replays are your aids after the post draw, where one has days, still, to draw sound opinion and make wagering decisions.

What does one do for an encore when the curtain draws after the race?

Taking a stand is excellent, but this far ahead of post draw? I'd rather wait for the goods to work with.

I agree in theory about waiting until the actual race and then treating it as a relatively normal handicapping challenge regarding the pace/post position scenario, etc etc. I do respectfully disagree about the importance of discussing all of the "absolutes" ahead of time.

It is a rarity in horse racing to have so many horses pointing to one single race with a more or less defined path of how they must go to get there regarding graded earnings and performances leading up to it. I think these discussions are wildly vaulable and to suggest that they're irrelevant just because the race is three weeks away is like suggesting that we shouldn't talk about who we think will win the Super Bowl and why until next February when we actually know what two teams are in it.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm thinking he can flirt with 20/1.

I mean, he's never even won a stake race in his life---and this will be a 20 horse field--where it's likely 8 of the 20 starters could be coming into the race off of either Grade 1 or Grade 2 wins....and that doesn't include probable post time favorite Street Sense.

He won the fabulous Sam F. Davis Stakes Just kidding, I get what you mean. While I know it is sin to be thinking about the Derby field already I think AGS has shown an ability to run with the crops best so if the pieces fall together...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I agree in theory about waiting until the actual race and then treating it as a relatively normal handicapping challenge regarding the pace/post position scenario, etc etc. I do respectfully disagree about the importance of discussing all of the "absolutes" ahead of time.

It is a rarity in horse racing to have so many horses pointing to one single race with a more or less defined path of how they must go to get there regarding graded earnings and performances leading up to it. I think these discussions are wildly vaulable and to suggest that they're irrelevant just because the race is three weeks away is like suggesting that we shouldn't talk about who we think will win the Super Bowl and why until next February when we actually know what two teams are in it.

Plus if you're a big horse racing dork it makes for a lot of interesting reading with all of the coverage on TV and websites.

[Danzig]

well, since i never staked a claim to being a professional, i'll continue to discuss all the different aspects of the horses that are pointing to the derby, while still withholding (as most of us do) our final selection til the draw, etc.

but i'm sure it'll be ok. besides, isn't that part of the fun, part of the excitement leading to the derby? and i also enjoy reading things i may not have seen for myself--there's bound to be many points of view about the various races, i'd hate to wait til may 2 to read all of that, once the field is drawn!!

[SniperSB23]

I have a feeling that Nobiz will be a lot closer to Derby favorite than people are expecting. You know the celebs will be pouring their money into him!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

He won the fabulous Sam F. Davis Stakes Just kidding, I get what you mean.

Actually, I forgot about that win.

The poor Michigan bred he beat got beat about 15 in the Tampa Derby, and 20 lengths as the favorite in a much smaller stake after that.

[Mortimer]

Oh this is all sooo true.




I agree the KDerby should be taken as just your ordinary 20 horse squamish race.

Simply apply squamish handicapping rules and there ya go!

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Plus if you're a big horse racing dork it makes for a lot of interesting reading with all of the coverage on TV and websites.

I agree with you about this. I think it is fun and useful to talk about and analyze the abilities of the horses in the weeks before the Derby.
My only point was that I don't think it makes sense to determine what your wager will be until the horses have worked over the track, post positions have been drawn, etc. That doesn't mean it isn't fun to talk about!

[Grits]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

Oh this is all sooo true.




I agree the KDerby should be taken as just your ordinary 20 horse squamish race.

Simply apply squamish handicapping rules and there ya go!

And in applying these skills, we are to understand that you had War Emblem and Giacomo . . . no?

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by Grits

And in applying these skills, we are to understand that you had War Emblem and Giacomo . . . no?

Evasive.


Incendinary.


Stupid.






Let's stop talking about the derby as if it made any sense.

'cause it don't.


That's why the wise apply the Squamish Method.







So shut up.

[Grits]

You're back, I'm pleased.

[byalip]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I liked that he was used a bit early to insure Deadly Dealer couldn't get right to the rail on the first turn.

He's the biggest $3 million steal ever.

THAT's what really impressed me...and then he settled nicely and didn't fight for the pace. Curlin took COMMAND over that path early on. Tough and relaxed horse.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by byalip

THAT's what really impressed me...and then he settled nicely and didn't fight for the pace. Curlin took COMMAND over that path early on. Tough and relaxed horse.

after he turned the corner into the stretch he ran straight as an arrow, all business and within himself. This horse is scary good.