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#62
10-02-2009, 10:03 PM
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I'd have a very, very hard time betting Kodiak Kowboy tomorrow. When a horse like him who makes one big run has been failing with terrific setups then it's not a good idea at all to take him going a trip that has never been his best. This race would be vastly different if it was 7 furlongs but, alas, it is not and thus he's going to have to be in high gear very early.
Go Go Shoot ran his eyeballs out last time but he was awfully dull when fresh earlier this year and while he's working well, he may need a race and be really tuned up for a race like the Sport Page later this month. I think this is Fabulous Strike's race to lose, obviously, but I'm going to use Peace Chant a bit as well. He likely needed a race going into the Forego and he was given what I considered to be an overly aggressive ride from a generally patient rider. He is a one-run closer but was too close to a hot pace and had no place to go through the last two and a half furlongs. If the rains come I think his chances may get marginally better as his dam, Safely Kept was 2 for 3 on wet tracks in her day and her offspring are a combined 4-10 on wet tracks. NT 
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#63
10-03-2009, 01:04 AM
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#64
10-03-2009, 08:18 AM
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#65
10-03-2009, 08:29 AM
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1) aqu 4/4/09: huge run to get Fabulous Strike at wire in race where top 2 held to wire otherwise. 2) cd 5/2/09: no shot where Accredit wired on off track -- nothing ran from off the pace 3) pha 6/27/09: wiped out a field where he got a nice setup 4) sar 8/9/09: no shot as FS and GGS went 2-1 around the track, in race with very little movement 5) sar 9/5/09: one of three coming late in race that fell apart late. So he has a huge run in a race against the grain, and a wipe-out run in one of the 2 races where he got a 'terrific' setup. In the other such race, he's running with 2 other closers.
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#66
10-03-2009, 08:41 AM
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I can forgive the CD race because he's never been that great on wet tracks. You admitted the Pha race was a perfect setup. Were GGS and FS not ripe for the picking at the top of the stretch in the Vanderbilt? They had set a quick pace and he swung out at the top of the stretch with two furlongs to get by. The Forego was as perfect a setup as he's ever going to get. Where you and I disagree about race flow is that it seems like you are occasionally married to the early vs. late positioning of the frontrunners when determining setups. Don't get me wrong, that's a huge part of understanding race flow but is certainly not the be all end all of it. The fact that FS and DbS hung around in the Carter should not in any way be a feather in Kodiak Kowboy's cap. NT
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#67
10-03-2009, 08:42 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#69
10-03-2009, 09:15 AM
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#70
10-03-2009, 10:34 AM
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When you let things like numeric pace determine how a race is really run RATHER than how the race is actually run, then you tend to interpret a race as your theory dictates. running lines at the 1st quarter for the top 4 finishers of the races in question: 1) aqu 4/4/09 :: 7-1-2-4 --- huge single run by KK off the pace 2) cd 5/2/09::: 1-6-9-5 --- huge run by The Roundhouse (9) while KK didn't do squat 3) pha 6/27/09::: 6-3-2-7 ---- perfect setup as everything on/near the pace collapsed 4) sar 8/09/09:: 2-1-6-4-5-3 ---- about as front favoring as you'd want -- barely any movement in race 5) sar 9/5/09::: 11-9-12-4-2-3 --- COLLAPSE I've stopped looking at race in terms of how they're supposed to be run and just take them as they are run. KK has shown that he doesn't need a perfect setup to win. In fact, he's shown that he can run against the grain. This makes him considerably better, in this sense, than, probably, 90% of the horses out there (who need perfect trips). What's interesting is that you're critical of KK, yet, on another thread, you claim to be impressed by Better Talk Now, who hasn't run an against the grain race in YEARS (if ever --- I only went back a few years in charts). Now, there's a horse that can't even win in a collapsing setup. P.S. I'm 'married' to the early/late positioning thing because after looking at a million or so charts, it finally kicked in that this is an important factor. Races fit certain types and these all basically 'look' the same. Horses, with very extreme exceptions, don't 'outrun' these setups. Just the way it is.
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#71
10-03-2009, 11:39 AM
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Totally ignoring relative fractions and relying solely on early/late positioning is a pretty hardheaded strategy.
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#72
10-03-2009, 12:12 PM
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As far as Better Talk Now, I've always been a fan of how he's been able to stay relevant for many, many years. I know he needed a good setup to win but that doesn't mean that what he did is not admirable. As far as Kodiak Kowboy running a "good" race in the Carter in your opinion, we'll agree to disagree, I thought the thing fell into his lap and he was the only horse to make a meaningful off the pace move. NT
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#75
10-03-2009, 01:36 PM
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#76
10-03-2009, 03:01 PM
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Yikes. Some crow please. Never underestimate the Assman.
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#79
10-03-2009, 03:09 PM
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When some of you set aside your figure centric methods, you might just get what I'm doing. Till then, it makes no sense for me to discuss races (setups) here.
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#80
10-03-2009, 03:12 PM
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Shut the f.uck up.
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