In 2007 I will be a better capper by:

[TheSpyder]

OK, so everyone beared theri souls with how they did this last year. Now let's look at the year ahead and think about what we can do to do better. I'm not talking about becoming a punter, but what are a few things that we can do to make 2007 a better year than last year.

For me, here's what I need to do:

1. Stop betting every damn race just to have some action. I do better when I skip some races not even if I have a key race, I just do better taking my time. Maybe I have a 40 minute brain living in a 30 MTP world, but it just seems to take pressure off.

2. I'm much better on doubles and pick 3's that exactas and tri's but sometimes I haven't capped enough ahead, so CAP ahead!

3. Money management: Stop chasing loosing money with more.

4. Limit wagering on Derby and BC Days. I never do well yet I come up to them with some crazy idea I'll make a killing and bet that way.

Well that's mine. I'm gonna see if I can follows these four things and I know I'll do better. Oh yea. thanks to some of you...get an account that gives rebates, now I get none which would have put $700 in my pocket this last year. HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Howz About You??

[MaTH716]

Two things for the upcomoing year:
1. Don't look at the tote board before I bet. If I like a horse and he is 3-2 so be it. I have a habit of going back into the form and try to convince myself that I like the other horse at 8-1 better. So instead of cashing a small ticket, well you know how the rest goes.
2. Bet to win more. I like to usually play exactas and triples, but I am starting to get tired of liking a horse and have him win and running third and fourth with the underneath horses in exotics.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

1. Don't look at the tote board before I bet. If I like a horse and he is 3-2 so be it. I have a habit of going back into the form and try to convince myself that I like the other horse at 8-1 better. So instead of cashing a small ticket, well you know how the rest goes.

This is exactly the opposite of what people should be doing. I'm not being a smartass. This is the absolute wrong way of thinking.

Look at it this way.....if you just know heads is going to come up on the next coin flip would you still lay 3-1 on it happening?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is exactly the opposite of what people should be doing. I'm not being a smartass. This is the absolute wrong way of thinking.

Look at it this way.....if you just know heads is going to come up on the next coin flip would you still lay 3-1 on it happening?

so you're saying that people SHOULD be fishing for 8-1 shots when they REALLY think the 3-2 shot is going to win and then watching their 3-2 romp home without a single dollar on him?

i'm not sure if i'm misunderstanding YOU, or if you're misunderstaning MATH716 -- but I think the point was to like who you like and NOT trick yourself into fishing for the price -- knowing that that is stupid if you didn't originally think the horse was going to win.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

so you're saying that people SHOULD be fishing for 8-1 shots when they REALLY think the 3-2 shot is going to win and then watching their 3-2 romp home without a single dollar on him?

i'm not sure if i'm misunderstanding YOU, or if you're misunderstaning MATH716 -- but I think the point was to like who you like and NOT trick yourself into fishing for the price -- knowing that that is stupid.

I may be over extending what he is trying to say, or maybe he is saying it badly, but in theory there are horses one actually should bet as their second or even third choice at 8-1 over horses that may be their top choice at 3-2. Certainly one should ALWAYS pay attention to the tote board, and be looking at exacta probables, and at least attempting to find what they perceive as their best value. Look, most people's understanding of what the actual chances of each horse winning is poor, and the tote board is overall the likeliest best indicator of this, but any horse player should have a reasonable idea of what odds he or she is willing to take on any horse and thus play accordingly. If one does not like the odds on their selection there is an alternative other than taking a flyer on another horse....you can always sit that race out.

The odds board is a horseplayer's friend....not his or her enemy.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I may be over extending what he is trying to say, or maybe he is saying it badly, but in theory there are horses one actually should bet as their second or even third choice at 8-1 over horses that may be their top choice at 3-2. Certainly one should ALWAYS pay attention to the tote board, and be looking at exacta probables, and at least attempting to find what they perceive as their best value. Look, most people's understanding of what the actual chances of each horse winning is poor, and the tote board is overall the likeliest best indicator of this, but any horse player should have a reasonable idea of what odds he or she is willing to take on any horse and thus play accordingly. If one does not like the odds on their selection there is an alternative other than taking a flyer on another horse....you can always sit that race out.

The odds board is a horseplayer's friend....not his or her enemy.

Yea, I think that's what the original post meant, and that's how I took it when I added it to the tail end of my post. That I need to stay disciplined at ALL times and not take a flyer on a horse that is not our first choice just because we don't like 3-2 on the horse we DO like.

That if we like that 3-2 horse, and aren't satisfied with the price for the win -- to start looking for creative ways to key that horse on top of exotics that will maximize the investment instead of just tossing that horse and taking another.

I think we're all on the same page, just saying it in different ways.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I may be over extending what he is trying to say, or maybe he is saying it badly, but in theory there are horses one actually should bet as their second or even third choice at 8-1 over horses that may be their top choice at 3-2. Certainly one should ALWAYS pay attention to the tote board, and be looking at exacta probables, and at least attempting to find what they perceive as their best value. Look, most people's understanding of what the actual chances of each horse winning is poor, and the tote board is overall the likeliest best indicator of this, but any horse player should have a reasonable idea of what odds he or she is willing to take on any horse and thus play accordingly. If one does not like the odds on their selection there is an alternative other than taking a flyer on another horse....you can always sit that race out.

The odds board is a horseplayer's friend....not his or her enemy.

This is about the only thing I do right at the track.

I find myself being pretty good at finding the price horse that gets the win or place by first capping out my top 3 or 4 horses and then looking to see how everyone else is betting them. It's actually structuring my bets for exactas and tris that I get burned. Too many times I look down on my notes to find that I had the horses, but didn't have them bet correctly (which is also in part from not wanting to invest a lot of money into my bet). This pretty much had me sticking to the W-P or WPS bet of the horse I liked best with the best odds...which is probably a pretty wimpy and unimaginitive way to do it.

I'm very compeitive and I think this carries onto my betting (which may be pretty stupid actually), it means more to me to beat the low odd favorite and occassionally miss one (or in those really sucky days, many) than to load up on the favorite.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I may be over extending what he is trying to say, or maybe he is saying it badly, but in theory there are horses one actually should bet as their second or even third choice at 8-1 over horses that may be their top choice at 3-2. Certainly one should ALWAYS pay attention to the tote board, and be looking at exacta probables, and at least attempting to find what they perceive as their best value. Look, most people's understanding of what the actual chances of each horse winning is poor, and the tote board is overall the likeliest best indicator of this, but any horse player should have a reasonable idea of what odds he or she is willing to take on any horse and thus play accordingly. If one does not like the odds on their selection there is an alternative other than taking a flyer on another horse....you can always sit that race out.

The odds board is a horseplayer's friend....not his or her enemy.

Well said.

--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

Concentrate on big days and certain meets.

Bet no more than 3 races from any particular track, minus Belmont summer and Saratoga.

Bet hard on big days, Derby, Preak, Bel....Do these things and you come out ahead. That's when the easy overlays occur. Selectivity is the key when dealing with a takeout tough game.

[paisjpq]

toss the sentimental bets when I know they are bad choices...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Listening to Dixie Porter and Bellsbendboy

I think that should be everybody's mantra for 2007 and forever.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

OK, so everyone beared theri souls with how they did this last year. Now let's look at the year ahead and think about what we can do to do better. I'm not talking about becoming a punter, but what are a few things that we can do to make 2007 a better year than last year.

Howz About You??

1. I will positively stop playing tracks outside of Kentucky, Louisiana, or Illinois -- with the exception of the occasional Gulfstream race. No more Calder shots. No more Belmont. No more Santa Anita. Far less Oaklawn....maybe no Oaklawn at all.

2. I will go deeper on Breeders' Cup day. This was the third straight year where I picked a good amount of winners, but didn't go in as heavily as I should have. Case in point: Hitting the tri in the Classic for $680 on a $12 ticket, but having Giacomo on the bottom of the tri along with Premium Tap, and knowing that with an extra $20 to throw into that bet, that I could have hit an 8K super with the same horses I played.

3. Only play the Derby with a group of friends. I played my first bet ever on the BC with friends, all pitching in on the late pick-4. It was awesome knowing that we could cover more as a mini-syndicate than alone. I will limit the Derby betting to the pick-4 involving the Derby and the trifecta or superfecta with a bet with a mini-syndicate of friends.

4. Focus more on Pick-X bets. I really only started playing them with any regularity this year. I used to bet just win bets and tris, but have had way too many "near-miss" tris and supers in the second half of this year to keep doing it. I don't have the money to dive into supers the way I need to, so I tend to key longer shots....in the wrong spot (ie i key them fourth and they run third, keying a 4K super). It's stupid wagering, and I will stick more to investing more money in multi-race wagers where I only have to pick winners instead of winners and who will clunk home third.....except in the Breeder's Cup. Exotics are on the table there still.

5. Watch every single race at Arlington this year and take way more notes than I need to. I watched them all last year, but didn't keep as detailed of notes as I had in years past with moving and the transition and all. It was my worst year betting Arlington in my history -- and I attribute it to my being lazy. I am usually completely on top of Arlington's meet (and made some monster scores in 2005, namely with my best buddy Courthouse ), but slacked off this year and I paid for it. Focus my ass up and start making some money at Arlington again -- because it's there for the taking.

6. Really stop and enjoy what I'm watching. I only tend to really stop and proverbially "smell the roses" when I'm live at Arlington on a Saturday afternoon standing by the rail watching turf racing. It's then that I realize that there are incredible things happening at tracks every day and that there is more to it than MY betting interest in it. It is really an awesome sight to behold every day around the country. I need to remember that Saturday-afternoon feeling on a rainy Thursday afternoon at dirty simulcast facilities too.

Great thread idea -- thanks for making me take a bit here and think it out!

EDIT: oh yea, and this!

Originally Posted by MaTH716

1. Don't look at the tote board before I bet. If I like a horse and he is 3-2 so be it. I have a habit of going back into the form and try to convince myself that I like the other horse at 8-1 better. So instead of cashing a small ticket, well you know how the rest goes.

[Gander]

In 2007 I will be a better capper by:

I am only betting one horse in 2007. His name is Speedjama, an allowance/claimer horse that hails from the John Terranova barn.
He has I think all his wins over the Aqu Inner track but he has run very well on the turf and would have won a turf sprint at Saratoga this past summer had Bejarano not taken him back and forced 7 wide with him.
I think he is sitting on a monster year.

I wont bet him every time he runs, only when I think his odds of winning are relatively united with his actual chances of winning.

When you see Speedjama, think of me Gander.

Merry Christmas everybody. Not sure when I will post again.

[packerbacker7964]

1. I need to bet only the turf because I'm above average I think in picking them.
2. Stop betting $1 to $5 on races just to watch them run.
3. When I think I have a chance to get a Big One go for it. I've had countless times where if I'd just thrown a little more money into the Kitty I'd be signing.
4. Listen to the wifey more often. I know I'm whipped but she's had some tips and I never listen as much as I should.

[ddthetide]

play my FIRST picks !!...... don't read through the program a second and third time and change them!.... cost me BIG twice this year.

I will accept the fact that although NYRA tracks are my "home tracks" that I must practice what I preach and make fewer plays there due to the consistent lack of value that they offer outside of big race days and Saratoga.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I will accept the fact that although NYRA tracks are my "home tracks" that I must practice what I preach and make fewer plays there due to the consistent lack of value that they offer outside of big race days and Saratoga.

Pick Three/Four value is non-existent in the NYRA unless you get back to back 20/1's to run. I refuse to play them there becuase of their payouts, they always seem low.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Well,this is easy.Look at the pick 3 at Turfway tonite in races 9-11

$1 pick 3=$520

$1 win parlay=$912

The pick 3 was roughly $500 short.

So,just by not playing a dime at a track like this will mean you won't get ripped off as much,and that would make you get paid more when you are correct(you need to get paid correctly,and so you need to discipline yourself to stay away from a track like this.)Picking winners is one thing.Getting paid what you deserve can be elusive.The pick 3 on races 10-12 paid exactly what it should(about $100 more for the $1 pick 3 than the $1 win parlay.)Problem would appear to be the 9th race winner.

$1 pick 4 races 9-12=$2,059

$1 win parlay races 9-12=$2,645

The pick 4 was roughly $800-$1,000 short.

[kenny p]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

OK, so everyone beared theri souls with how they did this last year. Now let's look at the year ahead and think about what we can do to do better. I'm not talking about becoming a punter, but what are a few things that we can do to make 2007 a better year than last year.

For me, here's what I need to do:

1. Stop betting every damn race just to have some action. I do better when I skip some races not even if I have a key race, I just do better taking my time. Maybe I have a 40 minute brain living in a 30 MTP world, but it just seems to take pressure off.

2. I'm much better on doubles and pick 3's that exactas and tri's but sometimes I haven't capped enough ahead, so CAP ahead!

3. Money management: Stop chasing loosing money with more.

4. Limit wagering on Derby and BC Days. I never do well yet I come up to them with some crazy idea I'll make a killing and bet that way.

Well that's mine. I'm gonna see if I can follows these four things and I know I'll do better. Oh yea. thanks to some of you...get an account that gives rebates, now I get none which would have put $700 in my pocket this last year. HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Howz About You??

1. continue to work on money management.
2Learn about thorograph sheets.
3In2006 I went to the track about 8 times. This year i will get out more. I always do better when I am there.

[Gander]

I'm pretty sure you are talking about how much you would bet on one horse once you've decide you like THAT horse

Yes I think thats exactly what he is saying. A great example of this is a horse I think both of us liked last week- Bishops Court Hill. I looked at the field the night before and glanced at the morning line odds. He was 6/1 and I thought that would be an excellent overlay if indeed he happened to go off at 6/1, or 5/1 or 7/1 range.

I wasnt playing that day but I was interested in watching this race. Bishop Court Hill opened as the favorite at 2/1 which surprised me. He hung aroung that price for a fairly long time in the betting, and eventually drifted up and went off at 7/2 and won.

Now 7/2 on a horse you think has a great chance to win isnt bad but I wouldnt consider that an overlay or even good value considering his poor form since his win in the Carter, which was on a sloppy track.

Had I bet the race I wouldnt have bet as much to win on him at 7/2 as I would 6/1. That probably would have been a $100 win bet for me but if he was 6 or 7/1 I would have probably doubled that bet.