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#1
11-21-2006, 11:59 AM
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Butch Lehr on bias controversy -- Horseplayer Daily
Here's a link to a story about an interview with Butch Lehr about the track conditions on BC day.
An interesting read for sure: http://www.horseplayerdaily.com/cat/...+columnist.htm 
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#3
11-21-2006, 12:06 PM
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It cracks me up when people say there was a rail bias just because the 1 horse won a few races. Street Sense took the shortest route home and was flying all the way down the backside. He passed several tired horses and he beat Quay by 10 because Quay decides to go 8 wide. Thors Echo didnt even go up the rail. He went 3 wide. Dreaming Of Anna raced 3 wide and then turned for home and then moved to the rail. However, she was the best horse in the field by far. Round Pound was trapped in behind horses. The jock wanted to move her off the rail but couldnt. She was full of horse and they the rail opened and she went on by them. Invasor, Bernardini, Asi, Quay all closed going wide.
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#5
11-21-2006, 03:18 PM
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I've heard it both ways.
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#6
11-21-2006, 12:11 PM
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When a horse coming off a huge top that was good enough to win the race, but an automatic toss coming off that top, wins, there's no doubt there's a bias...
Thor's Echo You could also see it in the first race, when PVals horse won...
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#7
11-21-2006, 12:13 PM
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Of courses hes also explained to us that Gorella's lifetime top race "took nothing out of her", that Fleet Indian wouldnt go in the BC, that Bernandini would run faster when pushed, blah blah blah. Hes a font of misinformation.
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#8
11-21-2006, 01:43 PM
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Thor's Echo has done nothing wrong all year. He was one of the most likely horses to win that race. The bias may have increased the margin he won by, but chances are he would still have won. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#9
11-21-2006, 01:46 PM
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#10
11-21-2006, 02:15 PM
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Actually, I have heard and read it's 3rd off the layoff that's the best and produces the best results... Yes, a bounce is sometimes a regression back to the mean, but his mean was not good enough to win the race, his best was, but he ran his best by a large margin in the last race and was set for a bounce...It's a theory and sometimes doesn't hold true, because these are horses not machines... Like I said, if my laptop wasn't broken I would go back and watch the race, but I believe there was a definite rail bias, I read somewhere that they fixed the track after the Distaff(if this is incorrect someone say so), maybe that's why Invasior and Bernardini weren't effected by it... Let's see how some of these come back and run, I think Scuds pointed out one that won already while racing wide, I think we will see many more...
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#11
11-21-2006, 03:36 PM
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When I'm faced with a horse that ran very big last time out, I'll usually start with a speed fig that is between the high one and the race or 2 before that. The younger the horse, the more I am willing to weight the recent high fig. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#12
11-22-2006, 12:22 PM
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I took a look last night and Thor's Echo was coming off of a 6 point top, his mean is about a 2 and he ran a negative 4 in his last race, it's not like he's a developing 2yo or 3yo, it was a 6 point top coming 3/4 of the way through his 4yo year. Not every horse bounces, but that had some sort of regression written all over it or even back to his mean which would have made him a non factor in the Sprint. He ran a negative 5 in the Sprint and from the comments looks like he rode the rail and then swung out 3 wide and won, so I believe his number was aided by an golden rail. For those that believe there was no rail bias, I don't know what to say to you and I am not going to argues with you, because it looks like a hopeless cause. I guess we'll see what happens in the next couple of races....
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#13
11-21-2006, 12:11 PM
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A few horses won from the 1 hole? Yeah, like 4 outta the 5 races run on dirt? You know about as little as you did when posted under Kycherub.
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#15
11-21-2006, 12:14 PM
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#17
11-21-2006, 12:23 PM
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#18
11-21-2006, 02:19 PM
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"Under a beautifully judged ride by jockey Corey Nakatani, Thor's Echo saved ground while chasing embattled leaders Bordonaro and Attila's Storm down the backstretch, angled out three wide before eventually wresting control at the top of the stretch, then drew off with complete authority. Friendly Island also benefited from his inside post, saving ground into the stretch before easing out and outfinishing fellow longshot Nightmare Affair by a half-length for second."-DRF
"At first we were really down about drawing the rail but after watching the earlier races we really started to get excited because it was obvious the rail was the place to be and we even started joking about how we could probably sell that post for good money before the race,"-O'Neill "When we talked to Corey in the paddock me and the owners both said at the same time to just stay on the rail," O'Neill explained. "And even though the post helped, Corey did a fantastic job maneuvering him out like he did." Nakatani said he wanted to stay on the rail as long as he could but once leaving the backstretch had no choice but to angle out and go after the leaders.On the turn I had so much horse that if I had stayed on the rail much longer I would have run over the ones in front of me," said Nakatani "As we got to the quarter pole I decided we should just go and put the race away now."-DRF Last edited by SCUDSBROTHER : 11-21-2006 at 02:29 PM.
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#19
11-21-2006, 02:28 PM
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"..On the day of the Breeders' Cup, however, the inside part of the track was clearly an advantage; four of the five championship races run on the dirt were won by the horse breaking from the No. 1 post position. Dreaming of Anna led all the way to win the Juvenile Fillies as Octave followed her along the rail to finish second. Street Sense hugged the rail as he rallied to upset the Juvenile, paying $32.40. Round Pound, a 14-1 shot, stayed near the rail and won the Distaff, paying $29.80. The Sprint produced a $965.80 exacta that could only be explained by its winning post position numbers: 1 and 2.
Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail. Invasor was the only one able to win with an outside rally, but even he had managed to stay near the inside until he turned into the stretch. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin rightly hailed the effort by jockey Fernando Jara: "It was an exceptional ride from the 11 post. To get over and be in the two-path round the first turn was unbelievable."-ANDY BEYER Last edited by SCUDSBROTHER : 11-21-2006 at 02:35 PM.
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#20
11-21-2006, 02:39 PM
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"Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail."-Beyer
"Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail."-Beyer "Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail."-Beyer "Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail."-Beyer "Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were outkicked by horses nearer the rail."-Beyer Last edited by SCUDSBROTHER : 11-21-2006 at 02:42 PM.
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