Giacomo = No chance

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Bernardini

heres my take, if you dont like the thread dont post, start your own!!! btw Lava Man is your winner.

there'd be a lot of one post threads if we all followed that approach!!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by repent

you know,
I was wondering about that when watching a thing on HRTV called Pursuit of the Cup.
they were going over the contenders and I was thinking, what the hell is so tough about the BC Turf?
you take out Hurricane Run(who i am still not convinced is going to show up) and all you have is Scorpion(who has run one time in the last year), a failed European(Cacique) and English Channel.
not bad, but nothing that Lava Man could not be competitive against.
I guess they just want a shot at the bigger purse money.
thats understandable, but I dont think he hits the board either.


Repent

hurricane is taking two steps back for every step he ever took forward. the bloom is off that rose.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i disagree that david junior has to 'move way up on dirt', he just has to handle it like he does the turf.
bernie would definitely be a 'bet against' here, as his odds will do nothing to inspire a bet come race day--and of course any horse can have an off day. you can find value in this race just like many others. obviously he would be used in any pick 4's and 6's....

if DJ had been winning on turf the way Falbrav was in 2003, then I would agree with your analysis Zeig.

Falbrav's 2003 turf form was on par Bernardini's 2006 dirt form.

but DJ has been beaten in Europe this year and althought impressive, not dominant the way Bernardini has been here.

I will disagree with you here while maintaining a ton of respect for DJ.
He is the only horse that concerns me at all when singling Bernardini in the pick 6(which I think is likely to be the case for me).


Repent

[repent]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

hurricane is taking two steps back for every step he ever took forward. the bloom is off that rose.

if Fabre and the Coolmore guys take their champion to the US,
then they think he is in good enough form to be a shadow of his 2005 self.
if thats the case, then he wins for fun.
HC did not really come into his BCT wins off all that much better of performances.


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[Danzig]

Originally Posted by repent

if DJ had been winning on turf the way Falbrav was in 2003, then I would agree with your analysis Zeig.

Falbrav's 2003 turf form was on par Bernardini's 2006 dirt form.

but DJ has been beaten in Europe this year and althought impressive, not dominant the way Bernardini has been here.

I will disagree with you here while maintaining a ton of respect for DJ.
He is the only horse that concerns me at all when singling Bernardini in the pick 6(which I think is likely to be the case for me).


Repent

i thought D jr was unbeaten this year??

[repent]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i can think of horses i would toss before i would throw out giacomo--believe it or not, hey scuds?! at any rate, you never know with this guy. if he has the right pace, he could win it. but suit yourself.

his best final furlong will not be even close to a stumbling home Invasor or Premium Tap.
so how is he going to pass a horse like Lava Man or Bernardini?
no pace scenario can help this horse out enough to be competitive.


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[repent]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i thought D jr was unbeaten this year??

no,
he lost the POW at Ascot.

hes only run 3 times this year.
the Dubai Duty Free, the POW, and the Eclipse.


Repent

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by repent

his best final furlong will not be even close to a stumbling home Invasor or Premium Tap.
so how is he going to pass a horse like Lava Man or Bernardini?
no pace scenario can help this horse out enough to be competitive.


Repent

i'm not picking him to win, but as i said above, i would discount others before i would discount him.

i've been high on invasor this year, and sure wouldn't mind seeing lava man pull out the undefeated season....

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by repent

no,
he lost the POW at Ascot.

hes only run 3 times this year.
the Dubai Duty Free, the POW, and the Eclipse.


Repent

i haven't seen anything on him since they said he was training up to the cup...wonder how he's doing anyway?? i think several others have a better shot than him here, i don't think he's the second coming of giant's causeway.

[repent]

Originally Posted by repent

no,
he lost the POW at Ascot.

hes only run 3 times this year.
the Dubai Duty Free, the POW, and the Eclipse.


Repent

and Zeig,
Im not disrespecting DJ here.
I hope nobody thinks that.
im his biggest fan and thought he was the best 10f horse in England(better than OBoard and Electro).

but I do feel he would need to be even better on dirt than he was on turf to beat Bernardini.

whats cool is that all these Euros are gambling and running on the dirt this year.
I wish Falbrav's connections had done the same in 2003.
if there was ever a BCT horse that should have run in the BCC, that was it.


Repent

[repent]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i haven't seen anything on him since they said he was training up to the cup...wonder how he's doing anyway?? i think several others have a better shot than him here, i don't think he's the second coming of giant's causeway.

all reports are that he is doing good.
he likes the "all weather" track over there, but we have heard that before with such BCC duds as Starcraft before.

I like the horse.
I like Bernardini more.


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[repent]

ok guys, Im out.

talk to everyone later.


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[SniperSB23]

Giacomo has little chance in the Classic but has ten times the chance that Perfect Drift has. Unlike the majority of the Cali horses Giacomo will actually move forward getting away from the landing strips on the west coast. No, he probably won't win but I fully expect him to hit the top five, unlike Perfect Drift. He's not as slow as people would like to make him out to be.

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well.....yeah sort of.
Basically I just wanted to start a thread to see if there were a lot of people who agreed with avance2000 about giacomo being an "interesting" horse in the race. I suppose I could have started the thread by just asking "What do people think about Giacomo's chances?" but I just figured I would jump right in with my opinion. As for the other longshots, if people wanted to start threads that became discussions about the horse's chances....I really would not have a problem with it. If I was interested........I would read it and if I was not......I wouldn't.
And as I said before....I really would not mind if there was a thread about every horse in the classic. I think it might help people cap the race.

Anyway scuds, I am sorry that expressing my opinion about a Kentucky Derby winner's chances in the BCC pissed you off so much. That was not my intention.

my point was this: you can't really make a case that giacomo is going to be a factor in this race, but nobody could really make a case for him before last year's deby either. that didn't stop him then.
are horses like invasor and bernardini better than giacomo......yes! but so were afleet alex and bellamy road.
a lot of these horses have question marks:
-will they like the dirt?
-will they like ch. downs?
-will a huge crowd spook them?

giacomo has already answered all of those questions......on this track...at this ditance. i think that is significant.
if you want to go on the record saying he won't hit the board....that is fine with me.....but i disagree with scuds......i think you are making a significant statement miraja. it is significant because in my mind you are just wrong. i'll go on the record now....giacomo will be one of the first four horses to cross the finish line. period.

[Pointg5]

I made a similar post about Jazil before the Belmont, that worked out well for me...

Giacomo's numbers give him the ability to run 3rd and possibly 2nd with a meltdown, also PD's numbers are very similar to last year, there's no reason he can't run 3rd again...

CR mentioned this about a month ago, the key to the tri is to get someone that no one is expecting to run 2nd, and I think that could be LR and if FA is back, he could do it. Bash LR all you want, but his numbers are solid coming in here...